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Roger J Smith

January 2015 CET forecasts

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Table of January CET averages and extremes

(this will appear again in the scoring thread, with all your entries added on New Years Day)



11.6 .. warmest daily CET mean (3rd, 1932 and 23rd, 1834)

8.0 ..
7.9
7.8
7.7
7.6
7.5 ... warmest January (1916)
7.4
7.3 ... second warmest (1796 & 1921)
7.2
7.1 ... fourth warmest (1834)

7.0 ... fifth warmest, and warmest since 1834 (2007)
6.9
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.3 ..
6.2 ..
6.1

6.0 ..
5.9 ..
5.8 ..
5.7 .. 2014 CET
5.6 ..
5.5 ..
5.4 ..
5.3 ..
5.2 ..
5.1 ..

5.0 ..
4.9 ..
4.8 ..

4.7 .. --- average 2001-14 ----
4,6 .. 

4.5 ..
4.4 .. --- average 1981-2010 -----
4.3 ..
4.2 .. --- average 1971-2000 -----
4.1 ..

4.0 ..
3.9 .. --- average 1901-2000 ----
3.8 .. --- average 1961-1990 -----
3.7 ..
3.6 ...
3.5 .. ... 2013 CET
3.4 ..
3.3 ..  --- average 1659-2014 -----
3.2 ..

3.1 ..

3.0 ... --- average 1801-1900 ----
2.9 ..  --- average 1701-1800 ----
2.8 ..
2.7
2.6 ... --- average 1659-1700 ----
2.5 ..
2.4 ..
2.3 ...
2.2 ...
2.1 ...

2.0 ...
1.9 ..
1.8 ..
1.7 ...
1.6 ...
1.5 ...
1.4 ... coldest past 27 yrs (2010)
1.3 ...
1.2 ...
1.1 ..

1.0 ...
0.9 ...
0.8 ... coldest past 30 yrs (1985, 1987)
0.7 ...
0.6 ...
0.5 ...
0.4 ...
0.3 ...
0.2 ...
0.1 ...

0.0 ...
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4 ... last subzero (1979)
-0.5
-0.6
-0.7
-0.8
-0.9

-1.0 ... twelfth coldest (1695)
-1.1
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4 ... eleventh coldest (1940)
-1.5 ... tied for eighth coldest (1709, 1838, 1881)
-1.6 ... seventh coldest (1776)
-1.7
-1.8
-1.9

-2.0 ... sixth coldest (1716)
-2.1 ... fifth coldest, and coldest 20th century (1963)
-2.2
-2.3
-2.4
-2.5
-2.6
-2.7
-2.8 ... fourth coldest (1740)
-2.9 ... third coldest (1814)

-3.0 ... second coldest (1684)
-3.1 ... coldest January or month (1795)

-7.7 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean past 30 yrs (12th, 1987)
-8.4 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean in past 148 yrs (23rd, 1963) -- this was the coldest day in any month and in any Jan since -9.3 on 4 Jan 1867)

-11.9 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean, 20th 1838

____________________________________________

 

Enter the contest by midnight New Years Eve, penalties apply from then to end of 3 Jan 2015 which is the absolute deadline.

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I don't think we are going to see deep cold, but maybe fleeting cold snaps

 

3.1c please.

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5.8c

 

Not convinced this winter will deliver. Wont be as horrific as its predecessor, but one to forget all the same.

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Going to go all out because why not? -0.7C please ;)

If not the OPI team have a lot to answer - January is paramount to this winter's success. I foresee a significant cold potentially very snowy blast from the East. with little or no mildness at best average.

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On ‎19‎/‎12‎/‎2014 at 15:50, SteveB said:

I don't think we are going to see deep cold, but maybe fleeting cold snaps

 

3.1c please.

Even this would be a lovely improvement over these last 4 rubbish winter months.  Alas on the other hand...

 

A new year but same old mild rubbish yet again...  8C  :(  Last sub -3.0C January in 1795.  Last sub -2.0C and -1.0C January in 1963.  Last sub 0C January in 1979.  Last sub 1C January in 1987.  Last sub 2C, last sub 3C and last sub 3.5C January in 2010.

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2.6 please :)

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Already! Winters ticking away :smiliz65:

Certainly no guesses for another 10 days given the atmosphere at present.

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If you would have asked this question not so long ago then I would have been going VERY low, I just hope that by 31st Dec i have changed my mind again back to significant cold, we will wait and see.

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4.8c for me, another slightly above average month similar to this month. Another forgetful winter I think.

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2.4c think it's about time it got cold

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Roger's list is a reminder of how potentially cold January is - it's quite amazing that the coldest December wouldn't even crack the top dozen coldest Januaries.

I'm going to hang on submitting my entry, but it's nice to think that the peak of winter is yet to come.

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Oh what the hell, I'll go for 1.9C - cold start, slight relaxation of cold mid month, bitter end...

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Given that we've not had a below average month in about a year, I'm gonna stick with the trend. 

5.0C, cool start, mild rest.

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Below is the January CET, with the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black.

 

xyIdAWf.jpg

 

 

December is likely to finish somewhere between 5.0C and 6.0C. For Decembers within that range, the average of the following January is 3.8C.

 

The linear trend over the entire record is +0.48C per century, following this trend gives a January CET of 4.1C this year.
The linear trend since 1850 is +0.53C per century, following this trend gives a January CET of 4.3C this year
The linear trend since 1950 is +2.5C per century, following this trend gives a January CET of 4.9C this year.
The linear trend over the last 50 years is +1.7C per century, following this trend gives a January CET of 4.7C this year.
The linear trend over the last 30 years is +3.6C per century, following this trend gives a January CET of 5.0C this year.

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