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Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas


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Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm dry summers
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

    I don't , people on here are quite sensible , not sure I see the snow locations that some do but certainly haven't seen what you are suggesting

    Apologies if this has misled (and my tongue was slightly in my cheek when I typed it) and I certainly don't mean to tar everyone with the same brush as many people here are realistic. However I do see some rather wild hopes not surprisingly getting dashed regularly.

     

    Truly locked in cold spells are rare and to be honest after last winter, I think most of us would take some transient snowfall!

    Edited by Long haul to mild
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    Unfortunately, there needs to be a recognition that if we share at *this tentative juncture* the exact nature of what we have as Ops Centre guidance, certain individuals will inevitably extrapolate/wa

    If the UK can't get cold from an upstream pattern with a negatively tilted troughing setting up over the ne USA , indeed the best set up since two winters ago then I will seriously consider throwing m

    The good news just keeps on coming!   Upstream pattern is falling into place to deliver what many people in this thread want to see, NCEP give us the best update since winter 2012/2013,  indeed I'm

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    I think half of the angst on this forum is caused by quite a number of people defining a cold spell as being something of 1963 proportions!

     

    To be honest, fleeting snowfalls that melt within a day or two are very common memories for me growing up, and it is really quite exceptional for large parts of the UK to get anything else.

     

    So for me the models still hold some hope of something of interest, but my expectations are not of such a level that I am expecting to be skating to work for the next two months :)

     

    I am also a firm believer of the chaotic nature of weather so I won't be writing off large periods of time as being destined to be set to one weather pattern (although I must add that I respect LRFs and model output/analysis despite my reservations).

     

    The GFS tonight would certainly keep the interest levels up!

    Can you see anything in the models showing snow that settles and lasts for two days away from the mountains in Scotland?

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    So the ECM doesn't back the UKMO and doesn't back the GFS's either! It's really utter chaos with two issues, one to the sw which the ECM disagrees with both GFS's by not splitting that energy and unfavourable phasing, it disagrees with the UKMO on both fronts and backs the GFS's with the shortwave over in the USA.

     

    Its a total mess and we're none the wiser this evening.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

    ECMWF remains stubborn with its positioning of the LOW on the 27th

     

     

    - Must be noted that EC had held relatively firm and other models have moved closer (pushed low further north than on previous output)

     

     

    ECM1-144.GIF?21-0

    Edited by Matty M
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    I think half of the angst on this forum is caused by quite a number of people defining a cold spell as being something of 1963 proportions!

     

    To be honest, fleeting snowfalls that melt within a day or two are very common memories for me growing up, and it is really quite exceptional for large parts of the UK to get anything else.

     

    So for me the models still hold some hope of something of interest, but my expectations are not of such a level that I am expecting to be skating to work for the next two months :)

     

    I am also a firm believer of the chaotic nature of weather so I won't be writing off large periods of time as being destined to be set to one weather pattern (although I must add that I respect LRFs and model output/analysis despite my reservations).

     

    The GFS tonight would certainly keep the interest levels up!

     

    Not at all, just more than 1 or 2 chilly days mixed in with less chilly days. I know this sort of thing can descend into semantics but surely most people recognise a cold spell as more than a toppler?

    The only output today (thus far) that shows anything we could remotely call a cold spell is GFS 12z and that is pushing it IMO.

     

    To call what is being modelled for the rest of Dec as blocked and showing a cold spell is, well i don't know waht it is but it doesn't reflect the output IMO.

     

    That is not angst or doom and gloom, it is just what the output shows. If people were saying there is still potential for a more blocked wintry spell I wouldn't disagree. 

     

    Anyway let's hope the output improves and we can post a classic cold spell being modelled.

     

    ECM 144.

     

    ECH1-144.GIF?21-0

     

    Let's see if we can get some WAA toward Scandi and build a ridge behind the deep low. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    So the ECM doesn't back the UKMO and doesn't back the GFS's either! It's really utter chaos with two issues, one to the sw which the ECM disagrees with both GFS's by not splitting that energy and unfavourable phasing, it disagrees with the UKMO on both fronts and backs the GFS's with the shortwave over in the USA.

     

    Its a total mess and we're none the wiser this evening.

    It is worth pointing out that none of the models are showing anything particularly cold or wintry tonight.

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    ECM say storm? What storm? And would you believe it, blowtorches us out!! Couldn't make it up  :rofl:  :80:

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    Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm dry summers
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

    Not at all, just more than 1 or 2 chilly days mixed in with less chilly days. I know this sort of thing can descend into semantics but surely most people recognise a cold spell as more than a toppler?

    The only output today (thus far) that shows anything we could remotely call a cold spell is GFS 12z and that is pushing it IMO.

     

    To call what is being modelled for the rest of Dec as blocked and showing a cold spell is, well i don't know waht it is but it doesn't reflect the output IMO.

     

    That is not angst or doom and gloom, it is just what the output shows. If people were saying there is still potential for a more blocked wintry spell I wouldn't disagree. 

     

    Anyway let's hope the output improves and we can post a classic cold spell being modelled.

     

     

     

    I'm with you on that Mucka, I'm not saying the outputs are great at present (they're not) but the way things are chopping and changing I refuse to accept that a mild spell is a fait accompli quite yet! :)

    Edited by Long haul to mild
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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    It is worth pointing out that none of the models are showing anything particularly cold or wintry tonight.

     

    I think thats one thing that stands out for me, you could say the cold for xmas day on the ECM is slightly upgraded but with pressure rising and unfavorable wind direction, it will just be cold and mainly dry you would imagine although xmas night into Boxing day could see a sharp frost. 

     

    I think despite some uncertainties, there has been a trend of height rises weakening and PV gaining strength and the whole ridging yet again collapsing... part of me thinks its a case of when rather than IF mind. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    I'm with you on that Mucka, I'm not saying the outputs are great at present (they're not) but the way things are chopping and changing I refuse to accept that a mild spell is a fait accompli quite yet! :)

     

    Well on that I agree. The models have been all over the place haven't they?

    fingers crossed for some big improvements tomorrow.  :good:

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    Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm dry summers
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

    Can you see anything in the models showing snow that settles and lasts for two days away from the mountains in Scotland?

    No not yet but I also don't see locked in mild spells for the next four weeks either, like some are claiming. It may well end up a damp squib but given the recent swings in the models I wouldn't preclude something interesting coming up at quite short notice.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    It is worth pointing out that none of the models are showing anything particularly cold or wintry tonight.

    Yes but at least with the GFS's there's some scope for improvement. I've never seen such a fiasco over that low to the sw, the ECM and UKMO are different but both equally underwhelming. The only crumb of comfort is the all round disagreements if the models all looked like the ECM/UKMO tonight the thread may have been subjected to one my rants!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Amazing difference between JMA and ECM really re upstream shenanigans. 

     

    JN192-21.GIF?21-12

     

    Now that is much more like it. Maybe we have tapped into that parallel universe.  :w00t:

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm dry summers
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014122112/ECH1-168.GIF?21-0

     

    ECM sits in just to the NW , amazing the difference in outputs at this range

    ECM has been consistent with delaying the progress of the storm, whilst GFS wants to bring it further SE and also much more quickly. Will be fascinating to see which model has called this correctly. Living near the East coast, I don't want some of the recent GFS outputs to verify that's for sure (in relation to the wind speed I mean!)

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Rotherham - 114M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Bramley, Rotherham - 114M ASL

    Its just unbelievable isnt it at the moment. Every model, every run is completely different to the last. As a few have been mentioning were talking about time scales that would normaly be fairly quick into agreement.

     

    The last few days have been amazing to watch, ive been on the forum 2 years now and i cant remember a time when 0-144 has been such a mess for such a long time!

     

    Just what exactly is causing the chaos this time? Is it the speed of things or the models unable to read Greenland properly at all? I cant put my finger on it!

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

     

    Then I read half the posts on here and it's like you are living in a parallel universe. .

    Well we are in a parallel gfs universe so I have to agree with you there. :-)

    Still all to play for, could be surprise snow during the stormy weekend and a cold northwesterly blast with snow showers early following week in run up to new year..oh yer and turning colder from the north this week with showers becoming wintry and widespread frosts.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    So ECM/ UKMO/GEM and GFS parallel pretty poor for any chance of decent cold but GFS 12z Op and JMA especially giving hope all is not lost.

    If ECM had backed JMA I would have been optimistic for something much better tomorrow but it goes the opposite way unfortunately.

     

    Let's   hope ECM has been on the eggnog and is currently doing the equivalent of photocopying its backside and forwarding it to all via the internet. :smiliz39:

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

    In truth, there has never really been any great blocking shown even in recent days. Usually just transient height rises caused by the Azores high ridging. I think Greenland heights are firmly off the table now and if any HLB does appear it will likely be to our NE. With persistent heights to our South, the northern arm of the jet will make it difficult to get a proper easterly (not impossible, but difficult).

     

    This is what I mean, best shown by the ECM. As I say, a it's as though a switch has been flicked off. I'd be interested to know what particular signal that is being sent from today's data as opposed to the same time yesterday. 

     

    ECM 12z yesterday

     

    ECH1-240.GIF

     

    ECM 12z today - same timeframe

     

    ECH1-216.GIF?21-0

     

     

    The sudden lack of variation only makes sense if there is some incredibly strong signal overriding everything else so that nearly all models (GEM, UKMO, GFS, ECM) are compelled to follow (looks like JMA is the only one bucking the trend)

    Edited by ukpaul
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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton, Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Buxton, Peak District

    I'm getting the feeling this is going to be one of those 'cold spell appears at 144 hrs out of the blue' type of scenarios. Seen it before and undoubtedly the warming strat is having huge implications on the modelling...something which the NWP as a whole is not getting a grip on.

    This is backed up by the post from Tamara yesterday. When will the modelling settle? I'd wager not this side of Christmas.

     

     

    I think the odd's are in favour of a return to much milder weather rather than a cold spell as shown in all available ensembles.  The 12z ECM fails to show anything below 8c for London for the next 10 days :nonono:

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    The ECM tonight actually combines two things to snuff out any chance of a cold spell: 1. delay of the depression from reaching the UK and 2. downgrading of heights. Number 2 means that, by the time the storm arrives, there isn't enough cold left in the locker for snow, and also no chance of a block underpinned by low heights in the Atlantic. The result is a typical Atlantic storm characterised by strong winds on south/west facing coasts and heavy rain. In other words, very typical UK weather.

    Unfortunately, there is a real chance that the west based -nao first shown on GFS at T360 will be spot on - too far west for the UK to get cold from. Still time for it to work out for us, but you sense the tide is drifting away from a post Christmas cold spell. Still, chance of snowy surprises on 24th/25th still remain.

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