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Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

BlueHedgehog074

By BlueHedgehog074
in Forecast Model Discussion

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted (edited)

The GFS P blows up the low and and possible snow to rain event over UK: post-14819-0-30734000-1419157062_thumb.ppost-14819-0-53081800-1419157152_thumb.p

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Midlands Ice Age Maestro

Midlands Ice Age

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
Posted

That low still very much evident in the 06z at 144.

Great example of rapid cyclogenesis

 

Note it is further west by another 20 miles... Could be even more interesting. 

 

MIA

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
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Posted (edited)

The Winter Storm persists and showing much deeper by the latest GFSP, Giving snow possibility's over a large swathe of the UK. With severe gales and wind chill = (blizzards) 

 

162-290UK.GIF?21-6gfs-6-156.png?6 gfs-2-150.png?6

Edited by Polar Maritime
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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Yes, a fair comment. It is still an interesting issue though because with a deep area of low pressure forecast to be sat in the southern end of the North sea I'd have expected at least some runs to build in high pressure to our ne in response.

Like this!

post-16760-0-95971100-1419157224_thumb.j

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

The Winter Storm persists and showing much deeper by the latest GFSP, Giving snow possibility's over a large swathe of the UK. With sever gales. (blizzards) 

 

gfs-6-156.png?6 gfs-2-150.png?6

 

Yes a lot of families returning home after the Christmas period (my parents included). Could be very dangerous. 

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)

Yes a lot of families returning home after the Christmas period (my parents included). Could be very dangerous. 

 

Would not want to be in Northern Ireland on that strongest winds combined with the snow.

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Duane S. Veteran

Duane S.

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
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Posted

Very unusual to see such a deep low track south and keep its relative intensity. Normally to be treated with high suspicion, especially from the GFS but looking at the likely direction of the jet, more than viable. Details far from confirmed though.

Personally, I hope it does come to fruition in all it's glory, I'm not into the oh it looks dangerous I hope it doesn't verify camp, it's this sort of exciting weather that most of us are here for!

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

Cold swinging back in.

 

gfs-0-192.png?6

 

gfs-1-192.png?6

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Newberryone Aficionado

Newberryone

Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
Posted

Would not want to be in Northern Ireland on that.

 

Strongest winds combined with the snow.

Yes indeed, looks like a very nasty feature, although for Ireland as a whole it doesn't appear that the system will be that disruptive. 

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014122106/gfsnh-0-186.png?6

Wouldn't take much to dig an Easterly from this

Oh I think it might be coming

Very unusual to see such a deep low track south and keep its relative intensity. Normally to be treated with high suspicion, especially from the GFS but looking at the likely direction of the jet, more than viable. Details far from confirmed though.

Personally, I hope it does come to fruition in all it's glory, I'm not into the oh it looks dangerous I hope it doesn't verify camp, it's this sort of exciting weather that most of us are here for!

Couldn't agree more, extreme weather in all its glory!

post-16760-0-07639600-1419158190_thumb.j

Edited by karlos1983
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014122106/gfsnh-0-186.png?6

 

Wouldn't take much to dig an Easterly from this

looks interesting but it has a sub 10% chance of occurring according to the ens. Mind you, if the storm does drop like that it would have some logic though a short term scenario, one would think.

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

What a diff a sleep makes!!!anyway not much change on gfs today but ecm seems to have taken a step back ;without sounding like a broken record imo with the pv looking to be gaining strength to the wnw then i think we need to look east after the projected cold shot up to the new year:i

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ANYWEATHER Maestro

ANYWEATHER

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted

This potential storm will be vital to track over the coming days. Gfs, shows it could well effect the whole of the Uk in one shape or form. But Im sure there will be at least some changes in the days ahead, but nonetheless something to keep our eyes upon :smiliz57:

post-6830-0-18423200-1419158189_thumb.pn

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Banbury Experienced

Banbury

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

looks interesting but it has a sub 10% chance of occurring according to the ens. Mind you, if the storm does drop like that it would have some logic though a short term scenario, one would think.

Of course as most Easterlies battle against the odds, slim chance is there at least

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

Very unusual to see such a deep low track south and keep its relative intensity. Normally to be treated with high suspicion, especially from the GFS but looking at the likely direction of the jet, more than viable. Details far from confirmed though.

Personally, I hope it does come to fruition in all it's glory, I'm not into the oh it looks dangerous I hope it doesn't verify camp, it's this sort of exciting weather that most of us are here for!

It's ok when you are not heading to Great Yarmouth for the week between Christmas and New year

156-515UK.GIF?21-6

1-2 inches of rain falling persistently over 24 hours along wind gusts of 80 mph widely (possibly 90 mph along the Norfolk and Suffolk coasts). Could be storm surge issues, but again the tidal pattern is a bigger driver for coastal flooding in these parts.

A lot of pain for the brief showery north/north easterly following, that said the operational is close to delivering something decent. The parallel develops a cold UK high.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted

The GFSP is not in any rush to bring the Atlantic back.

 

gfsnh-0-198.png?6

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karyo Maestro

karyo

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Posted

 

A lot of pain for the brief showery north/north easterly following, that said the operational is close to delivering something decent.

You have just summarised in a sentence a cold lovers life in the UK!

 

Karyo

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

The GFSP is not in any rush to bring the Atlantic back.

 

gfsnh-0-198.png?6

And what's that heading in the direction of the channel from the south west !!
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Penrith Snow Experienced

Penrith Snow

Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
Posted

I really do not think the new year period is set in stone as zonal, models are still all over the place and who can blame them with this monster UK low likely to shack the troposphere up in a weeks time.

I say let's get to the storm and see what the models produce after that, it could look very different by then.

What I am not looking forward to are those severe gales which believe me will be wet not white across the bulk of the UK, the Synoptics are very similar to the Great Highland Blizzard of 28th January 1978 when most lowland places had rain or at best sleet. By the time low uppers sweep south it will be too dry.

Another above average CET month is pretty certain now leading to record warmth in 2014, combine that with an end of year storm and we will hear lots about global warming, severe weather etc, that will drive me nuts so I am not looking forward to that either!

I wonder if it's too late to get a flight to Lanzarote next week

Andy

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted (edited)

This potential storm will be vital to track over the coming days. Gfs, shows it could well effect the whole of the Uk in one shape or form. But Im sure there will be at least some changes in the days ahead, but nonetheless something to keep our eyes upon :smiliz57:

 

 

We have already seen in the last couple of months how the track and cyclogenesis of a low can disrupt the pattern, and the one hitting the UK could have an impact on the mid latitude in our sector. Both GFS op and P showing at least 5-6 days of colder uppers with just a short 12 hour respite as a warm sector moves in with the LP system, starting in the SE on Christmas Eve eve. The op produces an easterly and keeps the cold uppers going till New Year:

 

post-14819-0-27596300-1419158715_thumb.p  The P keeps us in a cold UK high: post-14819-0-57525000-1419158836_thumb.p

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted (edited)

Very nearly a split Vortex there. Much better run with the Jet further South. Will that deep Low over the Atlantic drop further South?  

 

gfsnh-0-252.png?6gfsnh-0-234.png?6

Edited by Polar Maritime
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stevofunnelcl Aficionado

stevofunnelcl

Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
Posted

The storm next weekend could be another weather bomb?

 

 

 

The last weather bomb took place between Greenland & Iceland. This fella looks a lot closer. I always thought it was the worst case scenario.

Having a low bombing out just as nears the Uk, and during the Holiday period, with a lot of people moving about. Gotta keep a close eye on this one

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