Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

[Mark Neal.]

Sometimes that is the only answer - especially when people can read prior comments and look at the model output themselves.

"is there anything behind closed doors suggesting any widespread snow and is there still a chance of that snow event on Christmas day?" 

No.  There is not.  What more can you say? 

 

Thats a better answer to your original post, could of been worded better the first time around.

 

Anyway GFS 18z is out to 102hrs so lets get back on topic.

Lets see where we go from here!

Edited December 20, 2014 by Mark N

[mountain shadow]

Jam tomorrow, jam tomorrow. That's what the models have been showing.

A few days ago, it was a possible snowy Christmas, then Boxing day, then the 27th etc.., now it's the end of the month.

There is no doubt the models have been overdoing the Greenland height rises, will they get there eventually?

[shetland islands]

Jam tomorrow, jam tomorrow. That's what the models have been showing.A few days ago, it was a possible snowy Christmas, then Boxing day, then the 27th etc.., now it's the end of the month.There is no doubt the models have been overdoing the Greenland height rises, will they get there eventually?

Completely agree, the models are now just pushing back any real cold and snow. The GFSP has been the most 'pro-cold' model lately.

[Barry12]

GFS P moved towards ECM at day 6 perhaps...

 

[Eskimo]

Well as there hasn't been any substance to this thread for about 20 minutes now, here's +156h

A weird sausage shaped depression.

[Geordiesnow]

Jam tomorrow, jam tomorrow. That's what the models have been showing.

A few days ago, it was a possible snowy Christmas, then Boxing day, then the 27th etc.., now it's the end of the month.

There is no doubt the models have been overdoing the Greenland height rises, will they get there eventually?

 

I think the word possible is a good word to use because thats all it was, there was cold and even snow hinted but not set in stone for those dates. What has been clear for a while is that it will be a cool/cold xmas rather than a mild one but PPN amounts probably not amounting too much and will be the showery type. 

 

GFS 18Z run, not really a run that excites me in all fairness, tomorrow runs will be interesting regarding that low pressure cell heading out of Canada right near the start of the run, it shows how even the smallest things can alter the output. Its a plausible run but it seems if your a snow fan you can't win, its either better heights but waiting longer for any cold or getting the cold quicker but you can clearly see its only going to be brief before the Atlantic coming in. Certainly not a good trend on the GFS run. 

[Banbury]

fergie is there anything behind closed doors suggesting any widespread snow and is there still a chance of that snow event on Christmas day?

Not being funny but even you should know the answer to that

[Abyss]

Normal GFS pushes the colder uppers further East so bad for Western areas compared to previous run. It looks like a mess to me and honestly will change again no doubt in the next run

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS op brings snow to eastern areas by day 7 as the flow is aligned in favour of north sea coasts as opposed to Irish sea coasts in the previous run. The GFS (P) has shifted a little towards the ECM solution.

Parallel

The ECM route is the best bet, whilst the short term pain phrase is rather cliche, the ECM achieves something we need to allow a proper cold spell to develop, a cut-off lobe of heights which can advect Arctic air towards the UK.. This allows a split flow as opposed to the jet riding over the top. This will allow a longer term shot at a northerly.

Edited December 20, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Barry12]

The GFS 18Z is terrible, the GFS P 18z is good...

 

Edited December 20, 2014 by Barry95

[SMU]

Last one from me-

 

GFS (p)  edges closer to the ECM

 

the real cold now starting to filter into the 144-168 timeframe..

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&runpara=1&carte=1

 

S

[snowice]

Gfs is at odds at the 168hr gfs has sw and gfs ( p) is a cracker snow storm north easterly who do we believe???!

[bobbydog]

fergie is there anything behind closed doors suggesting any widespread snow and is there still a chance of that snow event on Christmas day?

 

my contacts at Meto Intelligence 5 tell me that the top secret S.P.E.C.T. R.E model has confirmed 50cm of snow for the whole of the UK on christmas day. but don't tell anyone ok.......

[MidnightSnow]

my contacts at Meto Intelligence 5 tell me that the top secret S.P.E.C.T. R.E model has confirmed 50cm of snow for the whole of the UK on christmas day. but don't tell anyone ok.......

Thanks for the update.

[mountain shadow]

I think the word possible is a good word to use because thats all it was, there was cold and even snow hinted but not set in stone for those dates.

Of course, it is only possible until it happens, but there is no doubt the long wave pattern was very positive towards Greenland height rises, but they have been scuppered by a localised short wave pattern which appears to have been overlooked.

Again, these islands are a small fish in a big pond and it doesn't take much for us to miss out.

[SE Blizzards]

ECM 12z shows a freeze in 10 days time, GFS 18Z op shows some sort of a bartlett ??????????????

 

Anyone who thinks they know what's going to happen in 10 days time is kidding themselves imo.

 

But surely a bartlett is the outsider of the two, right?

 

And then from that bartlett at Day 10, we get this chart at Day 16...

 

 

That can only happen in the strange world of the GFS in FI!!

Edited December 20, 2014 by SE Blizzards

[Frosty.]

Who is Caroline? some hurricane I have missed and I thought this was strictly model output discussion but hey it's Christmas.

I still think we are in for a wintry spell, wobbles are part and parcel of being in the UK but I think a rather cold and cyclonic outlook will bring a real wintry mix and cause forecasters a few headaches in the process between Xmas and new year and beyond. It's a lot more interesting than last winter for coldies at least. :-)

Edited December 20, 2014 by Frosty.

[Bolton67]

ECM 12z shows a freeze in 10 days time, GFS 18Z op shows some sort of a bartlett ??????????????

 

Anyone who thinks they know what's going to happen in 10 days time is kidding themselves imo

Talk about banging your head against a wall..

I'm at a total loss.. I don't know what model to believe.

[karlos1983]

Oh my days, could we have just 2 consecutive models going down the same route, this is beyond frustrating. 24 hours away from the models for me I think......well, I'm gonna try

[Rocheydub]

Talk about banging your head against a wall..

I'm at a total loss.. I don't know what model to believe.

Take a 48 hour break. Trust me, it's always worth it. I did it, and came back to programmed GH all over the place. It has since waned a bit, so I will decide tomorrow after the 12z's if I should take another sabbatical… 

Either way, the weather will do what it wants, and verbally assaulting each other here over a computerised output, is pointless. Only 3 people know what will happen in 10 days time, Steve Murr, Ian Fergusson and Mother Nature (the latter is embarrassed to be in such exulted company!)

[phil nw.]

Well after that 18z run we can see why the ECM option looks better for a more prolonged cold spell.

The old GFS quickly pushes aside the ridging post Christmas and sinks into a mild pattern.

At least the parallel takes a step towards the ECM by holding the ridge towards Greenland for longer in the early stages but as it doesn't send enough of the upstream  jet energy under the High the pressure of the northern jet eventually wins and sinks it into a UK high so any UK Northerly is short lived.

Hard to say which suite will be nearer the mark with some differences in the means wrt the Atlantic modelling.

 

If we want a better long term chance of cold then it's the ECM we should wish to verify. 

[mountain shadow]

Well Rochey, to be honest, the old Shannon Entropy must be off the scale. Neither the models, means or anomalies appear to give us any clue to what weather type will be impacting these islands.

I'm off to pin a tail on a donkey.

[Cloud 10]

The Christmas day fax chart is a teaser for eastern coastal counties with a small trough running down the North sea bringing the chance of wintry showers.

 

[SE Blizzards]

Anyone for Round 2 ??

 

 

What a crazy day of model watching....

[Earth Wind and Snow]

the 18z not far off giving us an easterly in FI - doesn't make it this run but another option on the table longer term if the high to our north-west dos not sink as fast as the GFS shows

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsgfseur.html