Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

[Banbury]

Looks as though it might come in line with UKMO

[Matty M]

ECM slightly bettere perhaps in the long term but remains quite bullish for the Boxing Day forecast

 

[swfc]

Ecm at 168 hours is actually better!!look at the heights going into greenland

[IDO]

At least we can ignore the GFS op. It has little support after D10 so I expect it is wrong long before then:  

 

ECM at D7 same as this morning: 

[Summer Sun]

ECM has a deep low north of Scotland next weekend breezy for all with winds coming in from a west to south westerly direction which pushes the cold air east. High pressure also building into Greenland which may help down the line

 

 

ECM lining up something colder at day 9

 

Edited December 20, 2014 by Summer Sun

[shaky]

Well somethings gota give here!!! This is getting silly its practically all the models v ecm!! And if ecm has got this wrong and backs down tomorrow then shame on it! ! I will lose all faith in that model!!

[Snowman.]

 

Look at those heights in GL.

 

I did say that the ECM wasn't terrible nothing like the para but most of that snow in the south is unlikely to settle anyway.

[Mair Snaw]

Ecm at 168 hours is actually better!!look at the heights going into Greenland

short term pain for the long term gain perhaps...

[Snowman.]

Lack of the EPO ridge is troubling.

 

[Polar Maritime]

No to what exactly?

We get a cold and frosty Christmas and boxing day with no mild mush.

 

Yes Frosty a cold Christmas on the cards with a slack Northerly showing, Much more seasonal than the past 2years, And here comes the Winter Storm around 27th/8th... Not as deep as the GFS but bitter cold from the N/W turning North, Im sure there will be many more changes to come, In fact im pretty sure the ECM will deepen it in future runs.

 

Edited December 20, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[West is Best]

That's a very embarrassing backdown from the ECM, slouching with tail between legs to the GFS/UKMO camp. It doesn't speed its way to the vicious scenario in the way GFS does but it's a massive advance, and therefore climbdown, on previous recent runs.

 

However, let's not forget despite model agreement for the sort of post Boxing Day event this is by no means yet nailed on.

Edited December 20, 2014 by West is Best

[Snowman.]

That's a very embarrassing backdown from the ECM, slouching with tail between legs to the GFS/UKMO camp. It doesn't speed its way to the vicious scenario in the way GFS does but it's a massive advance, and therefore climbdown, on previous recent runs.

 

However, let's not forget despite model agreement for the sort of post Boxing Day event this is by no means yet nailed on.

 

The ECM hasn't backed down though...

[Evening thunder]

The ECM and UKMO for the positions of the low near Iceland and the High over France at T+144 aren't really that different.. though the ECM is stronger with the low. 

 

ECM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

UKMO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

GFS(P):http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rpgfs1441.gif

 

If you open the links in tabs and flick between them,It is the GFS/GFS(P) that look more different to me, so I woudn't be too quick to dismiss the ECM, though I wouldn't dismiss the GFS and paralell either.

 

UKMO perhaps a middle ground between the ECM and GFS(P). The high near Greenland is more similar to the GFS than the ECM though.

 

Looking at the change from the previous frame I am struggling to tell whether I think the UKMO would get the low east of us to give some kind of northerly when the GFS does, or do something more like the ECM.

 

Edit: ECM finishes in a nice way anyway. This afternoon it does feel like we will get some kind of northerly anyway whether it is delayed by a few days or not.. hopefully.

Edited December 20, 2014 by Evening thunder

[Captain Shortwave]

That's a very embarrassing backdown from the ECM, slouching with tail between legs to the GFS/UKMO camp. It doesn't speed its way to the vicious scenario in the way GFS does but it's a massive advance, and therefore climbdown, on previous recent runs.

 

However, let's not forget despite model agreement for the sort of post Boxing Day event this is by no means yet nailed on.

err..

Next weekend is mild throughout on the ECM for most of the UK under a south westerly flow which is exactly what this mornings output was. Cold at day9/10 likely but again it's a similar run to this morning.

GFS day 7

ECM

Totally the same 

[Banbury]

The ECM hasn't backed down though...

It has a bit it is more in line with UKMO this evening than it was this morning IMO

[swfc]

The ECM hasn't backed down though...

Indeed looks very similar to this morning barring better ridging into greenland.Still looks like many changes to come tho over the next 48hrs imo

[Geordiesnow]

That's a very embarrassing backdown from the ECM, slouching with tail between legs to the GFS/UKMO camp. It doesn't speed its way to the vicious scenario in the way GFS does but it's a massive advance, and therefore climbdown, on previous recent runs.

 

However, let's not forget despite model agreement for the sort of post Boxing Day event this is by no means yet nailed on.

 

Really... I'm failing to noticing any differences in all honesty. 

 

The GFS had a bit more of a west based NAO but now its showing a quick ridge and the Atlantic is forecast to come in.... hardly consistent in my eyes, The ECM meanwhile has been consistent, whether its right or not we will see. 

Edited December 20, 2014 by Geordiesnow

[SE Blizzards]

JMA @ 192 

 

[mulzy]

That's a very embarrassing backdown from the ECM, slouching with tail between legs to the GFS/UKMO camp. It doesn't speed its way to the vicious scenario in the way GFS does but it's a massive advance, and therefore climbdown, on previous recent runs.

 

However, let's not forget despite model agreement for the sort of post Boxing Day event this is by no means yet nailed on.

 

ECM operational rock solid - It's the GFS and GFSP that are flipping left and right...

[The Eagle]

NAVGEM probably the best outlook for coldies

 

[John Snow]

Think the ECM can be binned

ECM v every other model at 168

It is either going to be a hero or zero, safe bet that it's a zero

[West is Best]

The ECM hasn't backed down though...

It has. The silly blowtorch scenarios are gone and in its place we have a Christmas Day cold northerly followed by a re-load starting at T192 with a superb potential setup, the effect of which you can see at T216 which is an outstanding outstanding chart by any standards.

 

 

Assuming we now see GFS / UKMO etc being right then what will happen from here is that the ECM 48 hours interlude will shrink in line with GFS. They have massively backed down.

 

Game very very very much on folks

[Snowman.]

It has a bit it is more in line with UKMO this evening than it was this morning IMO

 

IF the ECM was to back down it would follow suit and send the daughter low ESE along the UK. However it doesn't eject fast enough and merges with the low northwards.

 

 

We get this  instead of this 

[Polar Maritime]

Way out in gaa gaa land, But a good chart to see.. Still very much mixed signals, But at least the signals are good  :smiliz19:

 

Edited December 20, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[kumquat]

It's not often the case but a halfway house between ECM and GFS is probably the best outcome for coldies.