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Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas


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Unfortunately, there needs to be a recognition that if we share at *this tentative juncture* the exact nature of what we have as Ops Centre guidance, certain individuals will inevitably extrapolate/wa

If the UK can't get cold from an upstream pattern with a negatively tilted troughing setting up over the ne USA , indeed the best set up since two winters ago then I will seriously consider throwing m

The good news just keeps on coming!   Upstream pattern is falling into place to deliver what many people in this thread want to see, NCEP give us the best update since winter 2012/2013,  indeed I'm

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Well well gfs nit following ecm at all!! Infact its even better than the 12z with a shallower low crossing the uk further south! ! Maybe snowfall north of the low!!

 

amazing, was just thinking shaky will be on soon mentioning the low/shortwave, crossing on boxing day! yeah definitely shallower

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Looks a little suspect upstream with that low getting much further northeast than on most other runs but certainly a good outcome here, in fact no milder air manages to make it in at all for northern Britain on Boxing Day or the 27th and some real snow potential from the shortwave tracking south:

gfsnh-0-174.png?18

Edited by LomondSnowstorm
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Southerly tracking low, bringing in the floodgates of cold weather from the North and also a snow event for wherever the boundary of cold and mild air sits.

 

If we can carry on from this theme of the low tracking south then the odds are in our favor. 

 

Hopefully some model consistency by Monday. 

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Dangerous storm not too far off south-east coast. 

 

But so many changes ahead, it is poised so delicately with that block over the Atlantic and whether a short-wave can get to the poleward side of the jet

 

gfs-0-186.png?18?18

Edited by Matty M
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Interesting that GFS 18z cuts off the mid-atlantic low at T144 as UKMO does. I'm guessing this will allow an easier build of heights to our west and hence less risk of west based -nao. Will await the rest of the run with interest.

Up to T186 as I write and indeed it has happened, the North Sea "bomb" already in place by 27th December, good grief that looks calamitous and not just because of snow.

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Interesting that GFS 18z cuts off the mid-atlantic low at T144 as UKMO does. I'm guessing this will allow an easier build of heights to our west and hence less risk of west based -nao. Will await the rest of the run with interest.

Up to T186 as I write and indeed it has happened, the North Sea "bomb" already in place by 27th December, good grief that looks calamitous and not just because of snow.

 

I'm assuming this is the severe weather event that Ian Ferguson alluded to earlier today?  It looks both exciting and worrying in equal measures!

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So another variation from gfs 18z.For me the change on the nh chart from the 12z is way to diff for me and the high slips south way to quickly.Another run and none the wiser imo so see what tom brings???Also the 850s arnt great

Edited by swfc
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I think this run is a safer run to bring a Northerly albeit it is quite a brief affair on this run but i'm not too bothered about that personally... A lot of change is to be expected regarding the detail side of things so no doubt there be more variations from run to run. 

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The GFS continues to show a very Stormy period around the 27th, With bitter temps gales and blizzard conditions in places on a cold N/E flow. A proper winter storm, Also seems to fit in with Lorenzo/Chio's thought's.

 

180-602UK.GIF?19-18gfsnh-5-192.png?18gfsnh-0-180.png?18

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Seems as though the GFS has cranked up the Vortex 300% nothing changes after all these years.

 

I've seen enough of this run but I shall rest well with the shift in the models.

 

*Hoping* to see the ECM move towards the others (heh never normally say that) in the morning. Also peeps don't worry about what happens AFTER the northerly.

Edited by SN0WM4N
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