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Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas


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Unfortunately, there needs to be a recognition that if we share at *this tentative juncture* the exact nature of what we have as Ops Centre guidance, certain individuals will inevitably extrapolate/wa

If the UK can't get cold from an upstream pattern with a negatively tilted troughing setting up over the ne USA , indeed the best set up since two winters ago then I will seriously consider throwing m

The good news just keeps on coming!   Upstream pattern is falling into place to deliver what many people in this thread want to see, NCEP give us the best update since winter 2012/2013,  indeed I'm

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What if, say, the GFS(P), UKMO & JMA all showed mild conditions but the ECM showed cold. Would those who are discounting the ECM at the moment, side with the mild solution? I'm not so sure. Don't discount that ECM run just yet.

Fair point, but the ECM has been as useful as a chocolate fire guard post about 144, at 192 and showing models totally out on a limb with all the others it is right to take it with a mountain of salt

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Ensembles out yet!! Accoridng to matt hugo its a pretty big outlier! !

I think we perhaps need to clarify this

From what I can make out of that tweet, he is using intuition. The ensembles are not out in their entirety yet, it's the fact that the det is looking completely different from other det solutions this evening, and of course it has been consistently a mild outlier over the last 48 hours, that leads to that tweet I would imagine.

I'm sure Matt will clarify this if he pops in to this thread, and of course we will find out for ourselves within the hour :)

SK

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Very good 12z GFS main, GFS parallel and UKMO. Let's see how ECM shapes up. Having held a lone flag these past 36 hours it would be sod's law to see ECM revert.

 

Such has been the model volatility that we need to see Saturday and Sunday runs come in behind a cold Christmas season setup (accepting a few hiccups). If Monday morning's 0z outputs are clear and the ensembles mostly match then it's game on. Meantime we need to be tempered, not because that's always right but because of the recent model yo-yo ing.

 

Well, as I was saying …

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I was following the ECM through late summer and into the early/mid stages of Autumn and have to say past day 7 and it was pretty poor...so maybe some hope.

ALL models past day 7 are poor....

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just to put things into perspective, how many times have we read a Meto severe weather warning, 24 hours before an event, along these lines-

"there is still some uncertainty of the track of the storm and consequently, which areas will be affected"

this is using high resolution models and real time data tracking. yet people are still stressing about the finer details of shortwaves etc (which don't even exist yet) at a range of 8 days plus!!!

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Ensembles out yet!! Accoridng to matt hugo its a pretty big outlier! !

Another mild outlier on the way from the 12z ECMWF - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif â€¦ - what arrives after this period could be very interesting.

 

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^From Matt Hugo,  at the time of his Tweet Im not sure the ENS were out^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

 

I'm wondering if his comment is more in hope ??

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Lol westerly from the Carribean to Russia, good effort

It's the coconut express, it's understandable that ECM is struggling with Synoptics, with the high skill levels of the model and forecasted activity in the Stratosphere for same dates.

The processing power to smoothly forecast this complex and dynamic interchange of this global geophysical process would be immense.

ECM is possibly trying to mar both together. Just a thought

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Lol westerly from the Carribean to Russia, good effort

News coming through that the ECM employees, as a bit of fun on the last Friday before Christmas, had a "draw a chart that will never verify" competition. The winner would have their entry included in tonight's 12z run.

Step forward T216! :)

(would be just our luck if it did though!)

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I really think folks should be looking at a broader scheme of model output than the itsy bitsy of each model run. Im delighted with tonights runs with a very seasonal outlook. Unless youre looking for a nationwide Blizzard , you will be disappointed :w00t: No doubt to say, that forecasting this Christmas period is on the high end of the Shannon entropy scale , lots of changes ahead,but some fun times in model watching...... :smiliz57:

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Ensembles of ECM now out to certain extent.

 

Synoptically it does the seem the op run was a outlier, with the ensemble mean tending to be closer to the other models, and a cold NW flow.

 

post-213-0-37532000-1419021218_thumb.gif post-213-0-06365500-1419021223_thumb.gif  post-213-0-26414800-1419021232_thumb.gif

 

The temp average is also much colder than the op, but perhaps unsurprisingly not as cold as the other models runs eg. GFS, which suggests there were a few mild runs in the whole suite.

 

post-213-0-69287400-1419021227_thumb.gif post-213-0-83335000-1419021236_thumb.gif

 

I wonder what tomorrow brings on the model rollercoaster.

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News coming through that the ECM employees, as a bit of fun on the last Friday before Christmas, had a "draw a chart that will never verify" competition. The winner would have their entry included in tonight's 12z run.

Step forward T216! :)

(would be just our luck if it did though!)

Not often you see low pressure down there (bottom left). Don't think I've seen output like it. This is not normal - gripping stuff!
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And just to add to the drama for the weekend...

@RyanMaue: ...and GFS parallel will be unavailable this weekend due to NCEP computer issues.

 

jeez - could have done without that. 

 

the ecm spreads are huge later on. assume there will be a lot more milder runs for de bilt and london later (moreso de bilt). anomolys look good (backed a tad west but nothing in the great scheme of things). noticeably the uppers are not as low on this run which is probably explained by the mean depression crossing scotland day 8 which delays the onset of the lower uppers. previous suites probably had a cleaner northerly earlier which brought the mean lower. 

 

long way to go on the mechanics of getting from xmas day to the sunday. i think the idea of the long drawn out trough on the recent ops will be something we see next month. will be much more welcome on that occasion. in the meantime, we expect the op is phasing the lows incorrectly to our west which makes a mess of the latter stages of the run. for the sake of sanity on here, i hope we're right. also, that depression could well be on a more southerly track come next weekend. 

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i  know its deep fantasy world  but a low of 925  that a mighty storm which could be coming our way!!!

think if that actually did verify then most of the uk would be seriously in trouble. Thankfully it's way out in la la land. And if the models are struggling upto t96 at moment think that's got no chance.
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NOAA 6-10 days: monster positive anomoly off the tip of Greenland. Must surely be good for the UK. Can't see this being a 2 day toppler based on the that chart. Only one way out of cold for the Uk on that, and that's if low pressures slip somehow through Ireland

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ECM op very much on the milder side late on, but with the control following it, should we be a little concerned?

 

 

 

its not dissimailr to the op though its further south with the trough extension and clears the se by day 10. (lots of potential as it does so). thereafter the cool high sinks across us and nothing else very interesting happens.

 

the extended similar to this morning though the mean jet not as southerly late on.  not as inspiring days 11/15 as i found the 00z suite although the envelope provides for plenty of activity where the atlantic ridge meets the colder air over nw europe.

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