Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands

    Guys I want to be excited but we all know it won't turn out like that these low pressure systems can disapear in an instance as we have seen many times before, and we also need the shortwaves to play ball there are just too many variables and things that can go wrong at 8 days away it always seems that time frame that show this sort of eye candy only to be downgraded as we enter the reliable timeframe, But our luck has to change sometime right.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 1.8k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Unfortunately, there needs to be a recognition that if we share at *this tentative juncture* the exact nature of what we have as Ops Centre guidance, certain individuals will inevitably extrapolate/wa

    If the UK can't get cold from an upstream pattern with a negatively tilted troughing setting up over the ne USA , indeed the best set up since two winters ago then I will seriously consider throwing m

    The good news just keeps on coming!   Upstream pattern is falling into place to deliver what many people in this thread want to see, NCEP give us the best update since winter 2012/2013,  indeed I'm

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Coulsdon, Surrey
  • Location: Coulsdon, Surrey

    If the GFS (p) verifies as shown for the 27th, what areas would be affected by snow? Would the snow be a northern/Midlands event, or would the south get in on the action?

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

    hi

     

    As I understand it...it is when a LP system in situ is squeezed and some of the energy is forced out of the LP:

     

    attachicon.gifgfs-0-138 (1).png attachicon.gifgfs-0-150.png attachicon.gifgfs-0-162.png

     

    In this instance the original LP remains in situ and the daughter low is ejected NE into the jet.

     

    Not sure it is a Met Technical term though!!

    Think we invent our language to describe the models on here :)

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

    If the GFS (p) verifies as shown for the 27th, what areas would be affected by snow? Would the snow be a northern/Midlands event, or would the south get in on the action?

     

    Pretty well everyone IMHO. The gales would be awful on North Sea coasts too.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Please ECM don't let the side down.  So far the models that go out past T144hrs eject the shortwave and this separates from the parent low.

     

    This is now the trigger to accelerate the output towards a colder outcome, the further south this shortwave is ejected the better but overall tonights outputs are a step up for cold.

     

    We need the ECM operational run to move towards its ensemble cluster and stop this obsession with a west based negative NAO.

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    If the GFS (p) verifies as shown for the 27th, what areas would be affected by snow? Would the snow be a northern/Midlands event, or would the south get in on the action?

     

    Let's put it this way, it'd probably make the Channel Four news headlines anyway eh John.  :laugh:

     

    jonsnow1.jpg

     

    Jesting aside, D8 yet alone inside D2 timescales are hard to predict when it comes to SNOW probabilities. Watch this space though, post Christmas is where things are hotting up for coldies, especially for the Midlands Northwards.  :friends:

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow and more Snow, Blizzards,Thunder Snow, Hoarfrost, Frost
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈

    A bit OTT don't ya think.

     

    Lost count of the amount of times I've seen severe storms like what the gfs is showing completly dissapear nearer to the time.

    Ramping at its best!  :smiliz39:

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: North lincs
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal weather but love snow
  • Location: North lincs

    When's the next ecm run folks

    Can't believe the last 24-48 hours

    Great fun and Great reading

    Keep it going folks

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt

    I don't buy this low pressure over Scotland. It just pops up out of absolutely nowhere! No way could it so quickly get so strong? Surely?

     

     

    output_UZBtg6.gif

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    When's the next ecm run folks

    Can't believe the last 24-48 hours

    Great fun and Great reading

    Keep it going folks

     

    Even better reading when these monumental (!) charts (well a bit of lowland snow a plenty) come to fruition consistently within the reliable. All the current hype is focussed on charts beyond Christmas Day, let us NOT forget. I am also not saying things won't pan out as predicted either, simply take it steady guys n gals IF you are looking at things in your own back yard for example at such a range.

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

    If the GFS (p) verifies as shown for the 27th, what areas would be affected by snow? Would the snow be a northern/Midlands event, or would the south get in on the action?

     

    Did they not tell you, John Snow??

     

    Winter Is Coming!!

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    ECM out to 120 hrs and wins the most tiny areas of high pressure award. :laugh:

     

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    I don't buy this low pressure over Scotland. It just pops up out of absolutely nowhere! No way could it so quickly get so strong? Surely?

     

     

    output_UZBtg6.gif

    That's why it is known as rapid cyclogenesis. At least a pressure drop of 24mb in 24hrs to qualify.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

    I don't buy this low pressure over Scotland. It just pops up out of absolutely nowhere! No way could it so quickly get so strong? Surely?

     

     

    output_UZBtg6.gif

    It could of course develope earlier and run much further south ,or get pushed further north especially if the azores high flares up ,at this range very interesting but very early days ,hope though its a white one for all with a good undercut ,cheers .

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

    Too early to judge the ECMWF, but at 144hrs the ridge to the southwest of the UK is a little stronger and there is no evident split of the Atlantic low.

     

    ECM1-144.GIF

    Edited by Matty M
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    ECM on Christmas Day produces yet another dry and sunny signal for most parts akin to the UKMO, but with an additional interesting feature for the SE. Away from there and presumably into Boxing Day it looks a cool and crisp setup, plenty of walks might be taking place in the countryside if this continues. Mid-run so far so I'll let others comment on the deeper FI picture, please be nice ECM, stay on trend. 

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Too early to judge the ECMWF, but at 144hrs the ridge to the southwest of the UK is a little stronger and there is no evident split of the Atlantic low.

     

    ECM1-144.GIF

    man am not liking the look of the ecm at the moment!! No seperation of the shortwave! !
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

    I'll be honest here, I've been looking but not really noting much of the GFS output; it's just been too volatile. Good for fun and games, but past D7 I'm just taking it with a big pinch of salt. The EC is the model I've been looking at more often than not; and in particular the 12z.

    and at least at D6, there is some consistency with yesterday's (first pic today's 12z EC at D6, second pic yesterday's 12z for D7 - same date)

    ECH101-144.GIF?19-0

    ECH101-168.GIF?12

    Good general consistency, with a stronger Greenland height profile, and lesser +ve Europe pressure anomaly; good run up to D6 so far I'd say

    on that note- some snow shrs for NE Scotland on the day itself; and probably strong gusts and rain/sleet across eastern parts due to the shortwave ECU1-144.GIF?19-0

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting weather
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon

    Am I right in thinking that in the previous chart, the low pressure rapid development would (might) come about because of the unusually high temperatures shown off the coast of Spain? So if the warmth turns out to be less strong, the "weather bomb" will be less explosive?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    ECH1-168.GIF?19-0

     

    Danger Will Robinson, danger!

     

    ECM trying desperately to develop the one pattern that could ruin things by timing the shortwave development to allow them to merge - we would be hugely unlucky for that to happen. 

    I predict this will be yet again among the very mildest of runs within its ensembles from 168/192.

    ECM the Christmas Scrooge but at least it keeps expectations lower (mine anyway) until tomorrow.

    I think we will have a very good idea by tomorrow evening which way this going.

     

    JMA not perfect but going much more to plan in general terms.

     

    JN192-21.GIF?19-12

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    ECM1-168.GIF?19-0

    messy west based nao and azores ridge ecm really does change like the weather.

     

    but wait says the ecm lets try again in the mean time we all get blow torched but lows and highs to our south fight it out.

    but still could produce in the longer term....

    ECM1-192.GIF?19-0

    and then its back to square one like we recently been getting.

    flattened by the sumo vortex

    ECM1-216.GIF?19-0

     

    i did say recently that its possible it could miss and go into europe classic close no cigar and in a worse situation than we are now awful ecm.

    ECM1-240.GIF?19-0

    Edited by emotional rollercoaster
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Well at 192 hours ecm seems light years from the other models???Pressure to the south is higher but how can there be so much distance ie output????

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Oh man please i advice anyone to not look at the 192 hour chart from the ecm!! So gfs goes one way and the ecm goes the other way and continues with its outliers from 192 hours onwards!

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...