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Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas


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Unfortunately, there needs to be a recognition that if we share at *this tentative juncture* the exact nature of what we have as Ops Centre guidance, certain individuals will inevitably extrapolate/wa

If the UK can't get cold from an upstream pattern with a negatively tilted troughing setting up over the ne USA , indeed the best set up since two winters ago then I will seriously consider throwing m

The good news just keeps on coming!   Upstream pattern is falling into place to deliver what many people in this thread want to see, NCEP give us the best update since winter 2012/2013,  indeed I'm

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Ecm 12z ens mean was good last night but it's fab-u-lus tonight and I'm really positive that this cold outlook is going to go from strength to strength and push any attempted Atlantic breakdown further into the depths of FI..what a Christmas cracker we could be in for..:-)

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The GFS trend continues and after all those shenanigans over the last few days all that may happen is a continuation of the current pattern with short wave troughs and ridges slowly crossing the UK!!

 

D10 on the op: post-14819-0-74082200-1418942215_thumb.p

 

Model watching is far more exciting than the real thing. Its the only chance to see those blocked cold snowy charts.

 

On the GFS op dry Christmas Day and Boxing Day. Into FI and the op goes zonal: post-14819-0-82861900-1418942307_thumb.p

 

P at D8 is poor: post-14819-0-62597800-1418942363_thumb.p

 

The question is will the ECM backtrack on the 0z or the 12z?

 

 

 

 

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Tempted to say game set and match but still ample cross model confusion about the Christmas period which gives some, all be it fading, hopes. The profile of the jet stream is awkward but is consistent on the GFS which is why we see no height reductions through Iberia. Nearly game over for this attempt.

 

Confused with this post, how can anyone say that at a set up that is only in the medium term. I think the 18Z is quite similar to the ECM in one respect that any WAA looks to be too far West but the details at least initially looked better than the 12Z run. 

 

Although the hints are there and little changes can alter this, there has been no real sign of real significant cold(e.g -10 hpa hitting the UK) but theres still a chance for the xmas period to be more cold than mild in my eyes. 

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GFS and GFS P are both pretty hideous at day 8. Fat lady clearing her throat? The search for cold and snow may be about to rumble on.

Not while that Greenland high's kicking about she isn't!

gfsnh-0-216.png?18

That's a massive eastwards shift compared to the 12Z:

gfsnh-0-222.png

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The GFS trend continues and after all those shenanigans over the last few days all that may happen is a continuation of the current pattern with short wave troughs and ridges slowly crossing the UK!!

 

D10 on the op: attachicon.gifgfs-0-240-7.png

 

Model watching is far more exciting than the real thing. Its the only chance to see those blocked cold snowy charts.

 

On the GFS op dry Christmas Day and Boxing Day. Into FI and the op goes zonal: attachicon.gifgfsnh-0-276.png

 

P at D8 is poor: attachicon.gifgfs-0-198.png

 

The question is will the ECM backtrack on the 0z or the 12z?

A year or two ago you'd put your house on the ECM verifying over the GFS. I'm not too sure anymore!

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The heights to our south are a constant thorn in the side, the ECM mean was good, very good in fact but with the ops the way they are it's difficult to feel encouraged.

In delicate situations like this I always feel the higher resolution gives us more of an idea rather than the ensemble suites. Let's hope the 18z suite is better than it's op though or there will be toys being thrown I'm sure!

Edited by Weathizard
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GFS P actually looks like the ECM at day 10.

Indeed, GFSP extra resolution after 192 hours is making all the difference. The opp run is frankly laughable as it goes zonal as soon as it hits low res. one for the bin methinks.

Nothing's really changed IMHO. It's from about the 28th we need to be looking and the GEFS have been consistent with this.

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Looking at this latest GFS run ops and para , I am in complete shock at the massive turnaround in 24 hours. We need help , what is going on? A disaster for the Alpine Ski -resorts for the Christmas Holidays. Coats off and sleeve sweaters for you guys . Surely this run is not right ? We knew it was going to a mild Christmas here, but for you guys, some snow was on the cards. That has been fobbed away, yet again. Hopefully, tomorrow will see a correction to the 18z run.

 C

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Gfs 18z is heading in the garbage disposal. Hey guys, seriously, we are in for a very wintry spell. I have a good instinctive feeling we might get a teits beast from the east not long after. Stick with the met office and fergieweather, Steve murr to name but two of many top posters..I think a freeze is coming.

Edited by Frosty.
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I'm pretty sure that is known as a Murr run....

Another volatile day of runs and this is why a good number of seasoned members on here are still urging caution (given the risk of a west based negative NAO I imagine nick has the Snowline hiring lots of xmas temps).

However another stunning 12z ECM EPS suite, and beyond the shorter term uncertainty anybody not spotting the longer term potential in today's output needs to refer to Tamara's excellent (as always!) posts from earlier today - N Usa mountain torque looks set to make the stratosphere thread pretty lively in the coming weeks.

SK

Lol! At this point it might be better to pull a solution out of a hat because the GFS and GFS P show some dismal continuity. The ECM has been consistently underwhelming over the last few days so in that sense its been quite stable hopefully stably wrong!

 

The ECM ensembles are encouraging but until the operational run moves towards them then that's a concern. The trouble IMO is that whilst the ECM and to an extent the GFS P manage to develop some interest towards T240hrs will it really be that straightforward.

 

More time indeed for yet another variable to fly in to town and burst the festive balloon, we may get there eventually but could have easily been spared all this trauma if the models would stop this love-in with that Atlantic low, it could have been holding pattern cold then colder rather than this painful to watch episode.

 

As for the strat well that might well look positive but again we're relying on a bit of luck, as ever time will tell....

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