Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

[Jason T]

To be honest, The output we have now is far far better than what we ever had a year ago, I think one model always has to keep the frustration going, Yes it's the ECM but it may just put a smile on everyones face later today. Be positive people.

[winterof79]

The ECM is only just catching up with the GFSP towards the end of the run. Both good runs this morning, It will be interesting how the ECM handles the Greenland High in future runs.

 

Precisely PM people must not underestimate the potential of the ECM run.Rarely will all the output sing off the same hymn sheet this far out.

[winterof79]

BBC not buying into any prolonged cold spell. 6-10 day forecast from Darren Bett has just said milder air again on boxing day! I sincerely hope he is completely and utterly wrong!!

Good old Darren i have a few eggs put aside for him to wear.I think the Beeb forecasters will be called together before long.

[TEITS]

Think until the ECM comes on board we should be very sceptical. The gfsp should in my opinion ignored this morning it just looks totally out of kilter. ECM seems to be following a west based nao which isn't great for the uk. Maybe the gfs gfsp will move towards the ECM towards the weekend.

Considering how uncertain the outlook is no model output should be ignored. 

 

The most likely outlook based on the models is cold on Xmas day but at this stage snowfall is unlikely to be widespread with higher elevations exposed to a NW,ly being more likely to see a white Xmas. After Xmas remaining cold but the risk of snow increases due to the proximity of low pressure across the UK and high pressure to our W/NW continuing to bring a N/NW/NE,ly flow.

 

Finally I mentioned this yesterday but in my opinion towards New year the N,ly flow is going to be replaced by an E,ly!

[SMU]

Well the ECM has gone from a 5/10 last night to a 6:/10 this morning moving slightly towards the GFS solutions-

Id imagine if that low at 240 had been just 150 miles further south then there would have been considerably more positive spin placed on it

All in all a pidgeon step forward overnight

S

[snowangel32]

The ecm is an upgrade in my eyes today it has a real go at getting the block in place and also has massive potential heading towards the new year. We would have banked it last year its just with so much candy on offer from the gfs we are being greedy.

[smith25]

Precisely PM people must not underestimate the potential of the ECM run.Rarely will all the output sing off the same hymn sheet this far out.

Exactly I'd more concerned about the details on monday rather than this far out. It could also improve.

[Smiler1709]

BBC not buying into any prolonged cold spell. 6-10 day forecast from Darren Bett has just said milder air again on boxing day! I sincerely hope he is completely and utterly wrong!!

BBC are not going to have much confidence in a forecast past the 5 day mark, I can see why there being cautious because the cold spell is still in FI and each model is playing it differently. Until they all start singing from the same sheet and we start seeing these cold set ups come into range you won't get much commitment from the forecasters.

[snowking]

The ECM is only just catching up with the GFSP towards the end of the run. Both good runs this morning, It will be interesting how the ECM handles the Greenland High in future out-put. I expect many more variations yet with detail still being left to one side.

 

Those two charts are a very good indicator of the relationship between a negative EPO ridge and the resultant Atlantic ridge within the longwave pattern.

Notice the stronger heights/larger ridge towards Alaska on the GFS v the ECM, and notice the resultant stronger Greenland high.

The correlation is not always 100%, but in many instances over the years we have seen the two closely matched, especially in a low angular momentum scenario such as that we are entering.

There is also of course the potential for a mountain torquing event across North America off the back of those charts which should aid developments up above us

Positive steps in the overall longwave pattern, the shorter wave nuances continue this morning. Still lots to be cautious about!

SK

[West is Best]

Precisely PM people must not underestimate the potential of the ECM run.Rarely will all the output sing off the same hymn sheet this far out.

I think that's true. The overall pattern of ECM remains good, which actually makes the current run look even more odd. I cannot see how that Scottish low at T240 can get to where it is in such a short space of time from starting 200 miles west of the Azores. There's no jet pattern to match at the relevant timescale unless the jet flattens, and with the amount of blocking that is appearing it looks a strange evolution to me. Put another way, suppose the ECM Azores low at T192 is over baked? Then you have bingo: GFS. The low is blocked, sheers north-west and fills. We need Steve Murr and other experts to help on this one.

[Jason M]

GFS p has been pretty consistent on its last few runs whereas the other opps have moved around a bit tbh.

GEFS look slightly worse this morning upto about day 10, but are actually better thereafter. Might be that the cold spell gets delayed but does happen.

From looking through this morning it looks like we're going into a decent cold snap. It doesn't look anything severe though to my eyes. Hopefully that will come in early January.

[mountain shadow]

Happy with the ECM. Its slower with the evolution but the pattern change to something significantly colder is there.

[West is Best]

 

Finally I mentioned this yesterday but in my opinion towards New year the N,ly flow is going to be replaced by an E,ly!

Good morning TEITS my old friend. You, forecasting an easterly? Well I never.

 

Only teasing. I think you could be right with the blocked set up: there's a hint of it at the end of GFS P.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

again, latter parts of op runs (and that includes the gfs) is to be taken with lots of pinches of salts. What I would add is that the gfsp seems far more in line with the ECM ens mean than the ECM op. However, the higher res of the op is causing issues in the Atlantic and the op could be onto something. looking at the overall day 10 profile, even if this initial Atlantic fellow turns into a spoiler, what we're left with at day 10 shouldn't be overlooked (re NH profile).

it WILL turn colder. Whether that means snowfall before year end or we have to wait until the new year, it certainly looks good overall.

more caveats relate to the gefs where it seems we may end up with an MLB - again, if the NH profile is becoming primed, that would not be a terrible place to be.

Il be honest , the last few frames on the ecm over the last 2 years maybe? Really from t168 seems to be really progressive in terms modling. Yes the ecm is the best in the world in terms of how it handles blocking situations particualry continental feeda , Scandi blocks ect , but I'm always very dubious of it after t168 , as I am with all of them really , but the GFS is an American model isn't it? So would you expect it to get that area in question right maybe? The same as the ecm as a European model handling continental blocks well? Stands to reason ? I mean when was the last time a t240 verified ? On any of them ? Let's mot worry about details or charts 10/11 days away , the trend been is a greeny block of sorts more North Atlantic based really , how far west/East/North is still up for debate , but the trend is colder around Xmas time with snow becoming a genuine risk , weather it's showers or longer spells of snow , shallow features or what ever , but it's a dam site better than last year and feel the new year is going to bring very interesting synoptic indeed .

[snowblizzard]

Good old Darren i have a few eggs put aside for him to wear.I think the Beeb forecasters will be called together before long.

Some nice charts beginning to be churned-out by the models and a more promising trend if you are looking for colder weather in UK.

If I was a betting man, I'd put my money on the METO (and Darren) being right about a relatively mild Boxing Day across most of the UK!

But, after that we could be seeing something much more wintry at least for a time!

Edited December 18, 2014 by snowblizzard

[Man With Beard]

Important not to forger right now - The ECM post T192 does not have a good track record for getting specifics right for our island. That's not to say the GFS(P) does - it's too new for that. The ECM ens is statistically closest to the mark, usually. But there isn't too much point in debating 300 mile differences in low pressure placements until T168 - though I am fascinated by the consistency of GFS(p)

[TobyT]

So, ECM is currently failing to play ball: cold but crisp for a few days then a hasty breakdown rather than the snowiest of GFS, especially GFS P which is pretty remarkable. Am I right in thinking that GFS P will be their new gold standard model run in 2015?

 

It seems strange to be in a position where the GFS is the most mid-Atlantic blocked output compared to ECM which rushes back to zonality.

 

Pattern changes are rarely successfully picked up on by outputs and they do this yo-yoing. I cannot see how the evolution on ECM from T168 to T192 to T216 is occurring. They have a LP west of the Azores which breaks through to the north of Scotland at T240 very very fast? It's odd to see a LP coming from that deep south. On the GFS at the same timescale the low is held by the mid-Atlantic block, sheers off north-west and fills.

 

My hunch is that ECM isn't right: it looks odd to me. Low pressures from as far south as the Azores need a jet pattern to match and I can't see it. But that could be wishful thinking.

 

 

(By the way I've had doubts about ECM for a couple of years. It seems very volatile.)

Have to say this is very much as I see things and agree the ecm just looks wrong however it gets there in the end to a lesser degree, most important thing to take from all this right now is the whole NH pattern is primed for a colder blocked outlook so as we head into the new year thing should be interesting. On a side note solur flux has ramped up noticeably in the last week or two so I hope this does not throw a spanner in the works but all in all looking promising.

[West is Best]

Some nice charts beginning to be churned-out by the models and a more promising trend if you are looking for colder weather in UK.

If I was a betting man, I'd put my money on the METO (and Darren) being right about a relatively mild Boxing Day across most of the UK!

But, after that we could be seeing something much more wintry at least for a time!

I can't see any evidence on any model for a mild Boxing Day though. The opposite: bloomin' perishing.

[joggs]

Could the ecm be right with the slower evolution?.

Has the gfs got to much of an eastward bias like some have said in the past?

I personally think the gfs will correct the pattern slighty westwards but not to the extremity of the ecm.Be interesting to hear what the I,F take on things lol.

[winterof79]

Some nice charts beginning to be churned-out by the models and a more promising trend if you are looking for colder weather in UK.

If I was a betting man, I'd put my money on the METO (and Darren) being right about a relatively mild Boxing Day across most of the UK!

But, after that we could be seeing something much more wintry at least for a time!

I am struggling to see Darren Betts mider Boxing day

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121800/gfs-1-192.png?0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014121800/ECU0-192.GIF?18-12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014121800/gem-1-192.png?00

 

 

Sorry West beat me to it

Edited December 18, 2014 by Paul

[bluearmy]

Off topic but the lovely carol just said that they are keeping tabs on cold weather post Boxing Day. I think Ian's posts last night said everything . They see what we see but aren't confident enough to make the comments we can.

[MR EXTREMES]

im confident that this ecm chart is ready for the bin very messy.

but the over all trend is still there 

[pdiddy]

 

Some encouragement from Nuuk for high pressure to build...

[Smiler1709]

Some very decent runs on GEFS this morning, some real bone chillers in there and slowly but surely were seeing less milder members.

Personally I think were gonna see some very decent upgrades from all the models and maybe just maybe gfs(p) is the front runner

[snowice]

I think we have to be cautious as the ecm is such a big player,and being the best euro you never discount it,however it has been pants past 144 this winter so loads of time to change but I think I will put the champagne on ice till I see more runs.gfs p gives my hope the fact it's the newbie up grade model!

Edited December 18, 2014 by snowice