Winter 2014-15 thread

[Weather-history]

The snow from Boxing Day only completely melted yesterday afternoon. The field behind me was snow covered for 5 days, which is the longest period since December 2010.

[Weather-history]

Tescos are still selling snow shovels. I wonder what they know that the Met Office / BBC weather centre doesn't ? Or maybe they've just been listening to James Madden's Exacta Weather nonsense.

Still selling snow shovels?

Peter, it is the 1st January after all! I'm not surprised one bit. If it were 1st March then you may have a point.

Edited January 1, 2015 by Weather-history

[Daniel*]

Tescos are still selling snow shovels. I wonder what they know that the Met Office / BBC weather centre doesn't ? Or maybe they've just been listening to James Madden's Exacta Weather nonsense.

Tesco cooperates with the METO and other big weather forecasting organisations, according to what they're told rough forecast very accurate I'm told for the weeks ahead even months, tesco makes sure they stock up in or stock less in - it's really importortant for them in terms of saving £££ and getting that extra revenue from hot chocolate... Jumpers ect ect, sales really do bloom in cold blast for these items - I remember watching a documentary on it. Here's an fact: " when mercury rises from 20C to 24C sales of hamburgers will increase by 42%".

[lassie23]

Tescos are still selling snow shovels.

 

I wonder what they know that the Met Office / BBC weather centre doesn't ?

 

Or maybe they've just been listening to James Madden's Exacta Weather nonsense.

I think they are last year's lol!

[summer blizzard]

The snow from Boxing Day only completely melted yesterday afternoon. The field behind me was snow covered for 5 days, which is the longest period since December 2010.

Same for me however we had longer snow cover in winter 2013 and winter 2012.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

January is when the atlantic is most active, February onwards is when the atlantic quietens down and allows prevalent northerly blocking, i'm expecting a really cold mid February to mid March period.

 

Yeah, I think that, mid Dec to late Jan, rarely sees cold, Feb lesser Atlantic

[Peter H]

Not be like Winter 2013/14

> Not be like Winter 1998/99

> Not be like Winter 1988/89

> Not be like Winter 2007/08

Or 1974/75. Another real stinker that sticks in my mind.

Be either Winter 1978/79, Winter 1946/47, Winter 1962/63 or Winter 2009/10

Or 1981/82, 1983/84, 1984/85 and 1985/86. Some classic ones in there especially 1981/82.

Great winters always start early, and at least by late December.

I fear this one is getting well past it's sell by date.

[MP-R]

Yeah, I think that, mid Dec to late Jan, rarely sees cold, Feb lesser Atlantic

 

Of course not... it is only mid-winter after all... Lol!

[Bobd29]

Or 1974/75. Another real stinker that sticks in my mind.Or 1981/82, 1983/84, 1984/85 and 1985/86. Some classic ones in there especially 1981/82.Great winters always start early, and at least by late December.I fear this one is getting well past it's sell by date.

But 1947 was a really late starter

[March Blizzard]

But 1947 was a really late starter

And it ended late, too. The March CET was subzero until mid month!

[Bristawl Si]

Well, right now it sounds like Winter 13/14, with wind and rain smashing against the living room window.

I do hope we get a proper wintry week to ten days with some snow before month's end.

[Thunderbolt_]

I've been keeping a temperature record since the beginning of 2011, and this New Year's Day has broken my previous January high of 13°C, set on 29 January 2013. Got upto 14°C today.

[Great Plum]

Much warmer up north then - it's not gone above 9.4c at Charlwood near me and that was in the last hour!

[Peter H]

I've been keeping a temperature record since the beginning of 2011, and this New Year's Day has broken my previous January high of 13°C, set on 29 January 2013. Got upto 14°C today.

15C in the South East of Co. Down today so I'm sure that's at least a near record breaking temperature for January.

Dreadful winter weather.

[Weather-history]

 

Still, the winter of 1947 didn't start until the last week in January so you never know.

That is often said and it's true that the real severe spell didn't begin until then but December 1946 and the rest of January 1947 were not completely dominated by mild zonal weather and devoid of wintry episodes.

How many realise that December 1946 was as cold as December 2009 for the CET? It was 2.1C colder than the December just gone.

I would say with a great degree of confidence that this winter will not go down in the severe winter category for the CET, now. What I mean is a sub 2C CET winter. I feel December was just too mild for much of a chance of this happening because it would need January and February to override this and the first half of January doesn't look that chilly at the moment. If you look at the sub 2C winters, the large majority had very cold to chilly Decembers.

There is still a chance of a very cold winter spell though.

1955-56 is an example of the main bulk of wintry weather being in the February. December 1955 was actually slightly milder than December 2014.

[Summer Sun]

@bbcweather 

 

Yesterday was the warmest New Year's Day since 1916! Today will be noticeably cooler but with more sunshine. Darren

 

The previous record was 15.6c

[Don]

 

@bbcweather 

 

Yesterday was the warmest New Year's Day since 1916! Today will be noticeably cooler but with more sunshine. Darren

 

The previous record was 15.6c

 

 

Interesting that January 1916 went on to be the warmest on record at 7.5C and still holds that title today.  Lets hope this record is not about to fall!

[Peter H]

1955-56 is an example of the main bulk of wintry weather being in the February. December 1955 was actually slightly milder than December 2014.

My mum tells me there was snow on the ground on 28th December 1955, the day I was born.

The winter of 1972/73 is also an odd one. Most of December/January was very mild indeed, but I remember a severe cold spell with widespread snow in the last week of January/first few days of February1973. Local news reports at the time said it was the worst snow in four years (since the winter of 1968/69, another good one).

No one else on these forums appears to remember that snow event. It came on a North Westerly, so maybe that's why. We often get snow on a North Westerly when the rest of the UK has none, so maybe it only affected Northern Ireland.

Edited January 2, 2015 by Peter H

[hillbilly]

There is still plenty of time for winter but with nothing on the horizon for January even if we were to get another couple of short wintery bursts we will probably end up with an average winter.It does ask the question what has happened to January as a winter month?With the exception of the first half of jan 2010 you have to go back a long way to find anything exciting.I lost count of how many times I was off school on my birthday on the 3rd week of January in the decade from the mid 70s although winter 1980/1981 had little to cheer about but reared its head before spring was out giving the largest snowfall april has ever seen!!

[Woollymummy]

Speaking of old winters, last winter seemed very similar to the one 101 years before:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/o/5/Dec1912.pdf

Edited January 2, 2015 by Woollymummy

[Hocus Pocus]

I envisage this winter being nothing out of the ordinary now with a few cold snaps in-between  the milder interludes  with the PV being in control for much of the winter. As it stands the GLOSEA5 model from the MetO is performing admirably and  is head and shoulders above anything else I've seen this winter, be it forecasts or hopecasts. I think we've become too dependent on SSW forecasts  as being the be all and end all  for  predicting wintry synoptics whilst ignoring the fact that sometimes we don't need SSW to deliver cold as in December 2010 along with many others over the years. My take on LRF is simple really, if the professionals struggle there's no hope for anyone else but that doesn't mean we should just give up but just realise that the usual  caveats always needed to be factored into any LRF that they are just a forecasts nothing more nothing less.

 

Edited January 2, 2015 by Hocus Pocus

[Peter H]

I think we've become too dependent on SSW forecasts as being the be all and end all for predicting wintry synoptics whilst ignoring the fact that sometimes we don't need SSW to deliver cold as in December 2010 along with many others over the years.

Indeed, the one a couple of years ago really didn't deliver that much snow to lower levels in these parts.

As I see it, we seem to have a persistent high over the Azores at the moment, and this extents all the way into Portugal and Spain, and even up into France. This is guiding all the depressions to the north of the UK. As such, we have quite a strong West/South Westerly flow. For things to improve cold wise this high pressure system needs to collapse, and I can't see that happening over the next few weeks.

Really what we need is an intense high pressure to the north of the UK or Scandinavia, not over France and Spain. Unfortunately, that looks increasingly unlikely as time goes on.

Some of the charts last August would have led to a bitterly cold January had they been happening now.

Edited January 3, 2015 by Peter H

[Ninman]

Some nice charts showing at the tail end of FI, presumably from the response of the brief PV split

 

[Peter H]

Yep, noticed that this afternoon and next week certainly looks much colder than this one, but it'll probably all change by this evening.

The charts do seem to be swinging around a bit, and sometimes the really cold air looks so tantalisingly close. but oh so far away

Edited January 3, 2015 by Peter H

[Ninman]

Yep, noticed that this afternoon and next week certainly looks much colder than this one, but it'll probably all change by this evening.

The charts do seem to be swinging around a bit, and sometimes the really cold air looks so tantalisingly close. but oh so far away

 

Yep, they are still all over the place but the 12z progresses the heights in to Greenland further

 

 

I wonder how many more runs we will get like this before the progression fades again!