Winter 2014-15 thread

[TEITS]

This for me is one of the main reasons for our mild winter.

 

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

 

The below average temps across W Africa, W Spain, W of UK and the warmer temps across the E of the USA is a classic positive NAO pattern. For a negative NAO you need the total opposite.

 

 

[summer blizzard]

Blame the PDO myself as there's a correlation with the AO. Clearly a zonal signal in the western Atlantic though on there in terms of couplets.  

[Snowyowl9]

Yes, the 95-97 period was a bit like the 09-11 period, although like you say, 09-11 was colder and I did far better for snow.  As I've mentioned before I missed out on most of the snow events during Winter's 95/96 and 96/97.

Yes 09-11 period was an exceptional period for record low temps and snow as winds dropped it was like December 1981.

Early January 1997 did give around 4 to 5 ice days here.

This being the coldest day.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1997/Rrea00119970101.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1997/Rrea00219970101.gif

As for this winter its now equal with 2000-01 but will pass it when these frost continue.

[damianslaw]

With 3 weeks still to go, I would rank the winter so far here as preety average. Temperature wise it has been very average, with a number of air frosts and many days with maxima held between 1 and 5 degrees.

 

On the snowfall front, it has so far been below par, yes we've had about 10 days of snow falling, but only an inch max from any fall.

 

It has at least felt like winter, especially early-mid Dec, the days after Christmas, and more notably since middle of January.

 

I'm certainly not casting winter aside, have a sneaky feeling it will bite back hard by end of the month into March after all the benign weather we are having now..

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes 09-11 period was an exceptional period for record low temps and snow as winds dropped it was like December 1981.

Early January 1997 did give around 4 to 5 ice days here.

This being the coldest day.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1997/Rrea00119970101.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1997/Rrea00219970101.gif

As for this winter its now equal with 2000-01 but will pass it when these frost continue.

 

my only white new year, think snow on new years day is rarer than Xmas

[Snowyowl9]

my only white new year, think snow on new years day is rarer than Xmas

In recent decades seen more white Christmases than I ever saw as a kid.

1996 was a white Christmas here too

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1996/Rrea00119961225.gif

This time just missed out by a day but even so it was nice just to see a frost near Christmas years ago, it snowed on boxing day this time and the Saturday.

Edited February 10, 2015 by Snowyowl9

[March Blizzard]

 

I'm certainly not casting winter aside, have a sneaky feeling it will bite back hard by end of the month into March after all the benign weather we are having now..

 

I hope so. I'm in absolutely no rush for spring, plenty of time for that yet. I agree, it does have that feel of the calm before a storm.

[Peter H]

I'm certainly not casting winter aside, have a sneaky feeling it will bite back hard by end of the month into March after all the benign weather we are having now..

Highly unlikely, at least not according to the latest models. I'd say that's winter pretty much done and dusted for another season In these parts fairly poor, though not the worst I've ever seen.

Hopefully, next year will be better.

[Snowyowl9]

More chance of snow in march than in December going by the stats.

Maybe if you count april aswell having a closer look although in recent years December has been the best month for snow.

The 80`s was very poor in December strange turnaround.

Edited February 10, 2015 by Snowyowl9

[Summer of 95]

As regards to 1996-97, how wintry was February 1997? It wasn't, it was very mild and stormy so effectively pulled down any winter index value regardless of location.

It was completely unwintry, but then so was February 2011. 2001-2 was another, that was actually quite a cold winter until it suddenly changed in mid January. I'd put that above this year too, the cold around New Year was similar to that of 96/7.

I like to note the number of days with snow lying at 1200 as well as 0900, as that weeds out a lot of the snow that melts quickly in the morning. So far it's just one for 2014/15 (4 at 0900), compared to 5(7) for 2001/2 and 10(12) for 1996/7, and 4(6) for 1994/5. The one most similar is 2004/5, which had figures of 5 at 0900 but only 1 at 1200.

[Snowyowl9]

2005-06 winter comes out as 87 on the index here.

Then of course we had November/march and even april were wintry also.

A long season every month besides may.

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Index

1978-79: 262

2009-10: 197

1985-86: 159

1981-82: 149

1976-77: 141

1984-85: 140

1995-96: 135

1990-91: 126

2010-11: 119

2008-09: 105

2012-13: 102

1986-87: 100

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

1982-83: 85

1983-84: 82

1993-94: 78

2014-15: 78 (up to 10th Feb)

2000-01: 77

1996-97: 72

1979-80: 66

2005-06: 59

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

1994-95: 45

2002-03: 44

1992-93: 43

1975-76: 41

1991-92: 40

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

1973-74: 30

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

1997-98: 25

2006-07: 21

1988-89: 20

2013-14: 7

[Weather-history]

Highlights of the winter was Boxing Day evening with the best rain to snow transistion for some years. It was rapid and the snow accumulated almost the moment when transistion was complete.

After what was a disappointing overnight period, the snow finally fell the next morning. Despite the wet ground, snow accumulated easily. 29th January.

That night, there was the polar low, some despute over whether it was actually one but it delivered snow here

[Peter H]

Charts at the end of the latest runs look interesting with high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south of the British Isles. Maybe a cold snap during the last week of February ?

 

It'll probably all change by tomorrow morning.

 

[cheese]

It was completely unwintry, but then so was February 2011. 2001-2 was another, that was actually quite a cold winter until it suddenly changed in mid January. I'd put that above this year too, the cold around New Year was similar to that of 96/7.

I like to note the number of days with snow lying at 1200 as well as 0900, as that weeds out a lot of the snow that melts quickly in the morning. So far it's just one for 2014/15 (4 at 0900), compared to 5(7) for 2001/2 and 10(12) for 1996/7, and 4(6) for 1994/5. The one most similar is 2004/5, which had figures of 5 at 0900 but only 1 at 1200.

Several days here. Easily beats most winters before 2009.

[Snowyowl9]

1984

The highlight was a very good April. Before 1999-2000, it was the sunniest winter (December, January, February) on record (229 hours in London).

January. A westerly month, but it was very wintry in the north.The month was very wet: the wettest January since 1948 in England and Wales. Snowy over Scotland and Northern Ireland. A violent gale in the Midlands on the 11th, and another on the 13th gave a gust of 104 mph in the NE England. On the 13th, the north suffered prolonged snow showers and strong winds. There was a destructive tornado in Doncaster on the 14th, and lightning in Leeds. It was very cold in Scotland: there was a minimum of -23.6C at Grantown-on-Spey on the morning of the 20th, and -20.6C at Aviemore, followed by a maximum of only -8C at Tummel Bridge the next day. More snow in the north on the 21st. On the 23rd snow lay 65 cm deep in parts of Scotland, with many places cut off. Snow lay for 30 days of the month at Kindrogan, 20 days at Glasgow and Edinburgh, but only 6 at Manchester , and just one in London. Another tornado, with large hail, hit Teignmouth on the 26th. It was milder than average in the south.

 

http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/1984_weather.htm

I`ve bolded that bit,this past January has also been very westerly and been very reasonable indeed going by that.

[damianslaw]

With 10 days left of winter, from a Cumbria perspective its felt like it has been stuck in third gear so to speak, never really got going or revved into higher gear, but has stayed very steady without weakening too much into mild territory dipping down to second gear on short occasions.

 

Last year it felt like it was stuck in fifth gear, but a faulty gear i.e. a wet / stormy one as opposed to cold.

 

It will go down as instantly forgettable for most though, with very little wild weather or troublesome cold snowy weather to speak of, nor anything especially mild (New Years Day excepted), all very temperate and moderate - very British!

Edited February 17, 2015 by damianslaw

[Summer Sun]

A very sunny winter on the cards

 

Early figures show that while this winter is on track for fairly average temperatures and rainfall, it could be among the sunniest in our UK record dating back to 1929. If we have average sunshine for the rest of February, it’s likely to be in the top few sunniest winters and could potentially beat the 2001 record of 189 hours. Between 1 Dec -16 Feb many areas have already received more than their long-term average winter sunshine for the full season (1 Dec – 28 Feb), especially parts of the Midlands, eastern Scotland and north-east England.

 

December and January were both sunny across much of the country – especially eastern areas, while northern England and eastern Scotland have had a sunny February so far. As we near the end of winter it looks as though temperatures will be close to the long-term average with December warmer than average, January near average and February so far being just below. For many it has been a dry winter so far across southern, eastern and north-east England but relatively wet across Scotland, with the north-west having a wet December and January.

 

Dry start to February

 

The first half of February has seen some dry settled weather thanks to high pressure dominating the weather for much of the period. Using figures from 1-16 February, temperatures have generally been around 1 to 1.5 °C below normal across the UK as a whole and clear skies have allowed fog and frosty conditions to develop at times. Many areas have been on the dry side, with less than 20 percent of expected rainfall so far across large swathes of the country – we’d normally expect around half of the monthly average to have fallen by now. Sunshine amounts have been variable but parts of northern England and eastern Scotland have already received almost the whole-month average.

 

https://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2015/02/18/a-very-sunny-winter-on-the-cards/

[damianslaw]

I think the abundant sunshine is a reflection of the limited spells of dull southwesterlies/moist dank tropical maritime airstreams, lack of anticyclonic gloom overhead, there has been a lot of returning polar maritime airstreams, which bring clearer air and often good sunny breaks away from the NW.

 

Winter 14/15 the winter where the returning polar maritime airstream reigned supreme!

[Peter H]

Winter 14/15 the winter where the returning polar maritime airstream reigned supreme!

Sort of.

[Peter H]

Early figures show that while this winter is on track for fairly average

Largely snowless and frost free fairly average ? Winters have clearly become milder in the UK.

[Peter H]

It will go down as instantly forgettable for most though, with very little wild weather or troublesome cold snowy weather to speak of, nor anything especially mild (New Years Day excepted), all very temperate and moderate - very British!

Couldn't agree more Damian.

After a couple of promising winters, 2008/09, 2009/10, and late November/December 2010, we seem to be back in a consistent run of so called "modern winters".

Most of Europe appears to be stuck in the rut as well.

Edited February 18, 2015 by Peter H

[Weather-history]

Couldn't agree more Damian.After a couple of promising winters, 2008/09, 2009/10, and late November/December 2010, we seem to be back in a consistent run of so called "modern winters".Most of Europe appears to be stuck in the rut as well.

I recommend people to use some kind of a winter index to gauge just how wintry a winter has been. It's not full proof but I find it a pretty good guide.

Winter 2012-13 was pretty decent here, there was a severe cold outbreak across most of Europe during first half of February 2012 which eastern parts of the UK were affected.

Last 7 winters

2008-09: 105

2009-10: 197

2010-11: 119

2011-12: 47

2012-13: 102

2013-14: 7

2014-15: about 78

An average of 94. Compare to the previous 7 winters prior to this grouping: 44

Winters of recent times have been more wintrier than those of late 80s to mid 2000s despite have in effect a non winter in 2013-14.

[Summer Sun]

Fyvie Castle in Aberdeenshire hit 16c, 60.8f yesterday making it the likely highest temperature of February

 

Every month this winter has had a high of 16c

 

December

 

16.0C Prestatyn (Denbighshire)

 

January

 

16.5C Exeter Airport

 

February

 

Fyvie Castle, Aberdeenshire 16c - provisional high for Scotland this winter

 

Last winter both January and February failed to get above 14.9c

Edited February 19, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Costa Del Fal]

Couldn't agree more Damian.

After a couple of promising winters, 2008/09, 2009/10, and late November/December 2010, we seem to be back in a consistent run of so called "modern winters".

Most of Europe appears to be stuck in the rut as well.

But back into better Summers!

 

Good news for most people I would say, if not necessarily the hardcore winter fans on here.