Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

[Team Jo]

I've moved a couple of posts into banter as they're more appropriate for that area..so if you can't see it here, it's gone in there...

[Buxton Codge]

18z GFS continues the theme of a spell of milder weather for the middle of next week onwards. Fairly windy too with spells of rain

[Abyss]

-8 getting in to Scotland at T180

[Banbury]

18z GFS continues the theme of a spell of milder weather for the middle of next week onwards. Fairly windy too with spells of rain

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13817.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16217.gif

 

For 2 days then Codge

 

Before much colder weather floods in

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18617.gif

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

-8 getting in to Scotland at T180

No surprises there then. For S England we're still waiting for occasional charts in FI showing N' flow to verify.

Edited December 11, 2014 by prolongedSnowLover

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

The GFS 18Z looks to have had one too many ales showing an eventual NE' flow on Xmas day!

 

Edited December 11, 2014 by prolongedSnowLover

[Mair Snaw]

18z GFS continues the theme of a spell of milder weather for the middle of next week onwards. Fairly windy too with spells of rain

A bit like the other week when you posted about how mild December was going to be....11 days in and its been cold and for many parts of the UK its been colder and snowier than it has been since march 2013....a couple of days when the temps get just about back to average or just above....nothing MILD....

[Cheshire Freeze]

The GFS 18Z looks to have had one too many ales showing an eventual NE' flow on Xmas day!

 

Funny, that's exactly how I see the post Christmas Day potential pattern change occurring. A sinking low and HP ridging over the top.

[SE Blizzards]

Where oh where is this going....

 

[blizzard81]

Where oh where is this going....

 

It's going to show the mother of all northerly's just in time for xmas. Will it verify or is the younger bro of the 18z following in it's older bro's footsteps?

[karlos1983]

The GFS 18Z looks to have had one too many ales showing an eventual NE' flow on Xmas day!

 

Actually that has cropped up on a few of the last runs for Christmas Day or there abouts. Who knows could be a trend. We like trends!

[snowangel32]

The GFS 18Z looks to have had one too many ales showing an eventual NE' flow on Xmas day!

 

Lets hope we see the models project that scenario a few hundred miles west in future runs then we would be in business. Imagine how the americans are feeling they look like being in a winter heatwave lol.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Quite often we see the models flip around 150 hours out. I'm pretty sure Jan 2013 saw a flip to cold at quite shortish range after we thought it would be endless westerlies !

[weather_it_will]

Just need an easterly in the new year to enjoy this cold air.

 

I always had this feeling an easterly will be on the cards after christmas.

 

Edited December 11, 2014 by 'ColdIsBest'

[Mair Snaw]

Quite often we see the models flip around 150 hours out. I'm pretty sure Jan 2013 saw a flip to cold at quite shortish range after we thought it would be endless westerlies !

yep wasn't that the now famous Ian Brown WTF moment....models had been showing warm westerlies and he was ramping up spring in Jan and then as if by magic cold showed its face....

Edited December 11, 2014 by bigsnow

[Polar Maritime]

The PV showing sign's of weakening on the GFSP around Christmas. I think we will see some erratic out-put over the coming days as the Models play around with the suggested pattern change. 

 

Edited December 11, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Mair Snaw]

The PV showing sign's of weakening on the GFSP around Christmas.

 

I would say that's the PV all but finished off for a good period of time....some very interesting stuff coming up I feel...could this be in line with Fergieweather updates for post xmas??

[SMU]

Both models of the GFS 18z trying for the -EPO ridge @ 264-   -AO setting up around the 24-25th!

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014121118/gfsnh-0-324.png?18

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121118/gfsnh-0-336.png?18

 

for reference ive annotated these important high pressures on this image

 

IGNORE THE COLOURS its just the locations

 

 

S

[snowangel32]

Both models of the GFS 18z trying for the -EPO ridge @ 264-   -AO setting up around the 24-25th!

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014121118/gfsnh-0-324.png?18

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121118/gfsnh-0-336.png?18

 

for reference ive annotated these important high pressures on this image

 

IGNORE THE COLOURS its just the locations

 

blank.png

 

S

Hi steve still learning what is an EPO ridge.

[The Enforcer]

The highlighted occluded front is crossing southern UK in 528DAM air overnight on Saturday, but the BBC forecast is totally ignoring it - surely there must be some wintryness for the hills?

 

[Mark Neal.]

Hi steve still learning what is an EPO ridge.

This might be useful.. http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/weather-whys-wednesday-get-in-know-on.html

I'm sure Steve will explain in much better detail!

[SMU]

Hi steve still learning what is an EPO ridge.

 

Look on the map then run this sequence & see how it crosses the pole

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=25&month=12&hour=0&year=1984&map=4&mode=2

 

S

[SMU]

Note the -EPO ridge pre Xmas Dec 1962

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=20&month=12&hour=0&year=1962&map=4&mode=2

 

No-one has noticed that before- its a good precursor in a large scale AO pattern change, also high correlation to Cold in the eastern US.

 

S

[shaky]

The highlighted occluded front is crossing southern UK in 528DAM air overnight on Saturday, but the BBC forecast is totally ignoring it - surely there must be some wintryness for the hills?

 

PPVG89a.png

should be wintry precipitation on lower levels in that situation!!! See what happens!!

[Mark Neal.]

should be wintry precipitation on lower levels in that situation!!! See what happens!!

Model output though not showing much down south as clearer conditions through tomorrow with temperatures around 5-7c in South. Dropping after sunset though. With some winters showers to the NW showing on short range models. Once temperature and cold uppers reach Central & Southern areas the precipitation is not there it seems.

Here is the 6pm & Midnight 00Z Sat. From the Euro4

.

Edited December 11, 2014 by Mark N