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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter


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A few of you have asked today about rationale for the (tail-end of) UKMO latest 30-day outlook. There is, of course, a dedicated thread elsewhere for this but I'll just confirm that GloSea5 output rem

Thanks for this Barry   You are however wrong on both counts you suggest :   1) I have explained in extended detail, as much as I am able, the progress of the patterns thus far from autumn (see firs

Hopefully a timely interjection, but UKMO caution (again) that medium range NWP may not be adequately reflecting ultimate broadscale outcome. First tentative signs emerging, they suggest, of *possible

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I dont like to be a party pooper but would this exact chart not just mean high winds and rain for most of England?

Initially as the LP moves in but it bumps into very cold air and cold air floods south.....there'd be abundance of snow from that

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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What Changes? Charts look Similar to me???? 

i may be wrong but it looks like the high in the atlantic on the 6z is trying to ridge up towards greenland but on the 0z it looks flatter.

so im going to say it looks a bit better, i could be very wrong though.

fromey

 

 

yeap i was completey wrong sorry.

Edited by fromey
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What Changes? Charts look Similar to me???? 

 

Shortwave to the west on the Eastern Seaboard. This was on the 0z and 06z GFS op but not on the 0z P. Stops the pressure building longer in the Atlantic.

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see my post earlier mushy?

 

no john i didnt, there was 5 pages to read  since i last visited and couldnt be bothered to read them!

 

edit... just read it john, well at least my interpretation of these charts appears to be right! :)

 

Someone call a doctor LOL :-P

 

whys that? i like weather and will comment on what i believe might be in store, i do try not to ramp or let preferances sway my judgement too much .

Edited by mushymanrob
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Have we hit the peak of the GFS tease yet?

 

When was that last time this happened?  :rofl:

 

viewimage2_zps334026e1.png

 

Hmm, lowest minima over London, looks a bit suspicious to me. Would be unusual if it happened for sure.

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Morning all :)

 

Have to say if anything I'm more pessimistic this morning than I was yesterday. What concerns me is the strengthening and organisation of the PV shown on both the GFS 00Z main and Parallel runs.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121700/gfsnh-0-336.png?0

 

And on the Parallel:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014121700/gfsnh-0-360.png?0

 

I hope this is just part of the vortex re-strengthening suggested by Tamara yesterday otherwise early 2015 could be similar to early 2014.

 

Yesterday's CFS monthly didn't have a hint of an easterly or northern blocking - mobile throughout.

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Morning all :)

 

Have to say if anything I'm more pessimistic this morning than I was yesterday. What concerns me is the strengthening and organisation of the PV shown on both the GFS 00Z main and Parallel runs.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121700/gfsnh-0-336.png?0

 

And on the Parallel:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014121700/gfsnh-0-360.png?0

 

I hope this is just part of the vortex re-strengthening suggested by Tamara yesterday otherwise early 2015 could be similar to early 2014.

 

Yesterday's CFS monthly didn't have a hint of an easterly or northern blocking - mobile throughout.

 

 

Meanwhile I'm still seeing cracking ridging in the Atlantic. That's still there and for every run it remains I get more and more optimistic. 

 

h500slp.png

 

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Have we hit the peak of the GFS tease yet?

 

When was that last time this happened?  :rofl:

 

viewimage2_zps334026e1.png

 

That's based on the GFS(P) 00z having a fair bit of lying snow at the time from the storm it showed on the 28th

uksnowdepth.png

 

Not sure exactly how much though as there doesn't seem to be a scale bar anywhere

Edited by Evening thunder
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As is they way with Northerly's they can go in a blink of an eye. Still showing a fleeting one on the GFS O & P but really just a continuation of the current pattern with some amplification before the Atlantic rolls back in. Pretty much what the GEFS have been showing. Christmas Eve for four days we have some below average NW'ly uppers so hill and coastal snow maybe for the north on the op. However there is a window there for some SW or disturbance/trough so could throw up some interest for some in those days.

 

D16 on the Op: post-14819-0-76042100-1418813154_thumb.p

 

Only one run but the GEFS have been solid for some runs now in sending the Canadian PV lobe back home in FI, and that is rarely a good sign.

 

Of course it is only the 06z so just for fun till the 12z comes out. GFS P on the 0z is a Scandi trough, on the 06z a Scandi high:

 

post-14819-0-42169400-1418813666_thumb.p  post-14819-0-34450500-1418813678_thumb.p

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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06z GFS not really playing ball as well as it's earlier output. Thank the gods we now have the Parallel to turn to when the regular GFS goes TEITS up  :rofl:

 

gfsnh-0-300.png?6

Edited by kumquat
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Just to add to  the fun the GFS decides to throw an easterly into the mix...

 

gfsnh-0-276.png?6

 

Edit: In response to previous post - people shouldn't be turning to the parallel they should have turned away from the op. I haven't seen verification stats since the hiatus but even before it was performing better than the old op run. Of key importance is its greater resolution between 192 and 240, exactly the point when it is useful in this situation.

Edited by ukpaul
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That's based on the GFS(P) 00z having a fair bit of lying snow at the time from the storm it showed on the 28th

uksnowdepth.png

 

Not sure exactly how much though as there doesn't seem to be a scale bar anywhere

 

 

That there would be the reason! Thanks, I see that the lower uppers were down south in time with this GFSP chart, so it's understandable why the lowest minima was over the south, but couldn't get my head around how the min overnight temps were predicted to be lower than the 850s

 

Eagerly awaiting the next run :)  

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Just to add to  the fun the GFS decides to throw an easterly into the mix...

 

 

 

Edit: In response to previous post - people shouldn't be turning to the parallel they should have turned away from the op. I haven't seen verification stats since the hiatus but even before it was performing better than the old op run. Of key importance is its greater resolution between 192 and 240, exactly the point when it is useful in this situation.

 

Yeah but Paul it's nice to have them both to play with! Way out in la-la land anyway so just interest and light fun at this stage

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As is they way with Northerly's they can go in a blink of an eye. Still showing a fleeting one on the GFS O & P but really just a continuation of the current pattern with some amplification before the Atlantic rolls back in. Pretty much what the GEFS have been showing. Christmas Eve for four days we have some below average NW'ly uppers so hill and coastal snow maybe for the north on the op. However there is a window there for some SW or disturbance/trough so could throw up some interest for some in those days.

 

D16 on the Op: attachicon.gifgfs-0-384 (1).png

 

Only one run but the GEFS have been solid for some runs now in sending the Canadian PV lobe back home in FI, and that is rarely a good sign.

 

Of course it is only the 06z so just for fun till the 12z comes out. GFS P on the 0z is a Scandi trough, on the 06z a Scandi high:

 

attachicon.gifgfsnh-0-312 (1).png  attachicon.gifgfsnh-0-300 (4).png

 

To be fair, on the 6Z Op, the lobe starts to head west past Hudson's Bay:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014121700/gfsnh-0-360.png?0

 

It matters less that a lobe of the PV sets up residence than either a) the intensity of the lobe or b) the fact that it doesn't stay long before heading west.

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Just to add to  the fun the GFS decides to throw an easterly into the mix...

 

 

 

Edit: In response to previous post - people shouldn't be turning to the parallel they should have turned away from the op. I haven't seen verification stats since the hiatus but even before it was performing better than the old op run. Of key importance is its greater resolution between 192 and 240, exactly the point when it is useful in this situation.

 

Yes its the new ECM. Lots of amplification bias in FI so will throw up some stunning charts if its current output is a trend. Its new so I would not put too much faith in it, especially in the last 6 hours where it has thrown up two totally different synoptics in its two runs. I am sorry but that does not garner faith. I will stick with the GFS Op as I know its foibles.

 

The GFS P keeps a cold upper flow from D7 to D16 with lots of interest.

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The synoptic models will continue to chop and change for several days yet. No matter what time you choose or indeed watch each one as it runs out. Simply look at the prediction for 25/12 at 00, 12 to see this, whether you choose either version of GFS or ECMWF. They all show changes from day to day.

The important thing to look for is consistency whatever model you use. That consistency usually comes from looking at means, at any rate those I use, the 500mb anomaly charts. I know they get knocked by well respected posters on here but they do work on 7 out of 10 occasions throughout the year, be it to predict a change or predict no change in the 6-15 day time scale. Again I do not use them in isolation but use other outputs in a similar time scale and beyond to see how realistic they look. I then use nearly 50 years experience, 38 of them professional to decide which path seems most likely.They stuck with the no change idea for at least 3 weeks. Then,3 days ago  the EC-GFS version suggested something that MIGHT indicate a change. Last evening the NOAA version showed some similarity to the charts shown by EC-GFS. IF they continue with a similar set of charts, they were explained in my post last evening, gawd only knows where that is now, then another 24 maybe 48 hours should either confirm this change or otherwise. It is not a massive change but is sufficient IF it occurs to put the UK on the cold side of an upper ridge which 'should' also have the effect of sharpening the upper trough to our east.

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