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After 3 weeks of inactivity, the Western Pacific has churned out a new tropical depression in resumption of what has been a relatively quiet season. 21W is moving through the southern islands of the Philippines, with winds of 30kts. Whilst 21W is interacting with land, the depression will struggle to strengthen. Strong ridging to the north will push 21W westwards back over water in the southern half of the South China Sea (SCS). Shear is low, and waters warm in the SCS, which favours intensification into at least a strong tropical storm before eventual landfall in Southern Vietnam. If 21W gets it's act together more quickly than expected once it clears the Philippines, then it has a shot at becoming a typhoon.

post-1820-0-24369900-1417034979_thumb.gi

Edited by Somerset Squall

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21W is delivering very heavy rains to almost all of the Philippines due to it's sprawling bands. Convection has weakened a little bit due to the depression moving over land. Strengthening into a strong tropical storm is still expected after the system emerges into the SCS.

post-1820-0-25963400-1417093036_thumb.jp

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21W is delivering very heavy rains to almost all of the Philippines due to it's sprawling bands. Convection has weakened a little bit due to the depression moving over land. Strengthening into a strong tropical storm is still expected after the system emerges into the SCS.

attachicon.gif20141127.1130.mtsat1r.x.ir1km_bw.21WTWENTYONE.30kts-1000mb-100N-1216E.100pc.jpg

 

21W is definitely a very good example of a sprawling system. Such large and disorganized sprawling systems usually tend to develop rather slowly. Given it short time over water from now on, along with the sprawling nature of the system, this system might have a tough going becoming a tropical storm at all.

 

However, more recently, the system has developed some quite intense central convection, as can be seen below:

 

post-20885-0-75439000-1417106345_thumb.g

Visible image of 21W. Note that the image does not auto-update itself.

 

Given that, if the JTWC is correct, the low level circulation center (LLCC) should be located somewhere in the circle, it does have a decent CDO (central dense overcast). This means that further organization may be more likely than the sprawling structure of the system would suggest at first hand. Time will tell.

 

Finally, note the banding feature located all the way over the northern Phillipines associated with the system. This really shows the broad nature of the system.

 

Sources:

http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/21W/21W_floater.html

Edited by Vorticity0123
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21W has become a 40kt tropical storm this morning, named Sinlaku. Sinlaku has much improved central convection this morning with bands wrapping into the LLCC from the south and north. Due to Sinlaku's improved structure and the favourable environment ahead consisting of low shear, good multi - directional outflow and warm sea temperatures, further strengthening is likely. JTWC forecast a peak of 60kts before landfall in Vietnam.

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Sinlaku has continued to strengthen as it nears Vietnam. Winds are up to 55kts according to JTWC. JTWC forecast Sinlaku to become a minimal typhoon before landfall in about 12 hours time.

Image of Sinlaku nearing the Vietnamese coast:

post-1820-0-42797600-1417246168_thumb.jp

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Was there in da nang and nha trang last month.... Doh my travel curse continues...

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