Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14

[bobbydog]

some very different options on the table at 240hrs

 

ECM

 

 

GFS

 

 

GFS (parallel)

 

 

the old GFS and the ECM have the ridging towards greenland but there are huge differences regarding the placement of LP systems

 

the questions are, which is best for us and which is most likely?.......

[ANYWEATHER]

I think we need to calm down folks as regards a serious pattern change.We have seen the blocking to our north/northeast ebb and flow over recent days , tonights output is loading the uk with a pathway to some colder weather in the days ahead, but until its there tomorrow and a general concencus  from the ecm and gfs  in the next few days forget it...

[SMU]

Unlikely as it is I agree that the ECM 12z tonight isnt correct

I believe the GFS / GEM blend looks favourite

Ironically though if the ECM did land the flow over the UK would be east or south east for 9 days...

Now think of how many posters hung there hat on the GFS ensembles & the atlantic rolling through ....

Not looking so mobile now!!!

Edited November 15, 2014 by Steve Murr

[Snowy L]

Let's not get too excited about the end of the ECM run. The main thing to take away from today is that the big 3 all support the idea of that high pressure being a lot more resilient than was thought a few days ago, with high pressure largely influencing the UK in the mid-range. That itself is very encouraging, looks like the models initially overestimated the strength of the Atlantic, lets see how far the backtracking goes.

[Banbury]

Unlikely as it is I agree that the ECM 12z tonight isnt correct

I believe the GFS / GEM blend looks favourite

Ironically though if the ECM did land the flow over the UK would be east or south east for 9 days...

Now think of how many posters hung there hat on the GFS ensembles & the atlantic rolling through ....

Not looking so mobile now!!!

Models always have a problem with blocking set ups and tend to progress the Atlantic, saw many posts on here a few days back with links to the Atlantic rushing through.   Not saying tonights runs are correct but you really have to take these things a day at a time.  I said a day or so ago the 21:55 forecast had Nick Miller saying " from day 6 - 10 will see SWlies across the UK "

[Jason M]

Because it's got 12 hours of extra data!

hmm, but it's still 240 hours away ;-)

In fairness the ECM solution is perfectly plausible, though it would be a brave man who disregards completely the possibility of a 'deep southerly' with a stubborn euro high.

Interesting charts today though and unlike last year we are at least in the game!!

Jason

Edited November 15, 2014 by Jason M

[craigore]

High pressure heading north leaving us with NE'ly winds

Charts like this in the reliable and its game on

What concerns me is although we may drag in North Easterly's or Esterlys the temps wont be that low on the continent , couple that wth high S.S.TS and it may feel cold , but no where near cold enough for any white stuff. Edited November 15, 2014 by DiagonalRedLine
Sorted out the problem of the person's reply being embedded in Summer Sun's quote box.

[A.J]

totally agree with banbury and anyweather posts above.......I think that some members are getting far too far ahead of themselves with today's various outputs......FI is called FI for a reason, verification probabilities take an exponential nose dive the further we look into the future timescale, and to illustrate, how many times over the years have we have mouth watering charts full of potential out in FI end up tasting like past its sell by date dog food!.........FI is for trends, and only when  we see GFS T300+ and ECM T144+ charts in agreement at T48-72 should we get excited.....until that happens, we should be aware of the grain of salt the size of a large boulder lurking close by IMHO.........For me, in the FI timescales, the strat thread is the place to be with casual glances at FI mid-range models to spot for any trends which might, only might, bare any fruition...

 

By all means, discuss all of the outputs right out to the furthest timescales, but it's best not to get get too sucked in to hyperbole to avoid the disappointment that generally follows

Edited November 15, 2014 by ajpoolshark

[Barry12]

What concerns me is although we may drag in North Easterly's or Esterlys the temps wont be that low on the continent , couple that wth high S.S.TS and it may feel cold , but no where near cold enough for any white stuff.

 

theres very cold uppers not far away at all if we get a North-Easterly.

Edited November 15, 2014 by Barry95

[bluearmy]

What concerns me is although we may drag in North Easterly's or Esterlys the temps wont be that low on the continent , couple that wth high S.S.TS and it may feel cold , but no where near cold enough for any white stuff.

Using the ECM day 10 to illustrate that the uppers aren't cold enough doesn't tell the full story - a chunk of the p/v is headed south on that day 10 chart. (It won't happen)

Just noticed that the 00z ECM ens spread had a day 10 centre just se of Greenland. I assumed it was a depression - maybe I was wrong .............

Edited November 15, 2014 by bluearmy

[blizzard81]

If we cast our minds back to ECM 12z for last Tues evening - that run may have been on  the money after all page-61.htm

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

What concerns me is although we may drag in North Easterly's or Esterlys the temps wont be that low on the continent , couple that wth high S.S.TS and it may feel cold , but no where near cold enough for any white stuff.

High SST's will generally mean more snow. If we get say -15c uppers going across the warm North Sea, then it would just be constant snow for hours and hours!! 

Got to say it, the models have definitely flipped over the last day and its looking much more promising again.

[blizzard81]

ECM ensembles means - very blocked

[Methuselah]

High SST's will generally mean more snow. If we get say -15c uppers going across the warm North Sea, then it would just be constant snow for hours and hours!! 

Got to say it, the models have definitely flipped over the last day and its looking much more promising again.

But what if, as is often the case, winds do not blow across the North Sea? I see nothing - as yet - to suggest an imminent Snowmageddon...

[bluearmy]

The ECM mean and spreads shows an array of possibilities with a block somewhere close to the uk clearly favoured. However, the next 48 hours will give us a better idea if there will be any nuance around this blocking ( retrogression or a back door cold uppers easterly cold pool)

[The Northern Ramper]

High SST's will generally mean more snow. If we get say -15c uppers going across the warm North Sea, then it would just be constant snow for hours and hours!! 

Got to say it, the models have definitely flipped over the last day and its looking much more promising again.

Just -15's? Maybe we could push for -20's

People are getting well ahead of the game tonight lol

[Man With Beard]

Just got out of the England game and saw the ECM and thought oh no not that darn T240 teaser again! Then looked at GFS T240 and hmmmm ... well maybe there's something in it. Clearly there is move afoot to build a block in a slightly new place after T144, let's keep looking for 48 hours to see if the models firm up on where. Rumours of the Atlantic's revival looking distinctly shaky...

[knocker]

Quite on the warm side really

Edited November 15, 2014 by knocker

[Mucka]

Unlikely as it is I agree that the ECM 12z tonight isnt correct

I believe the GFS / GEM blend looks favourite

Ironically though if the ECM did land the flow over the UK would be east or south east for 9 days...

Now think of how many posters hung there hat on the GFS ensembles & the atlantic rolling through ....

Not looking so mobile now!!!

 

Hmm cheeky Steve, not exactly the Scandi slider and undercut other folk were hanging their hats on either is it TBF?

 

The general trend is for the Atlantic to roll over the top and MLB get squeezed West, that is both in op and ensemble output but no clear signal as yet.

ECM does look like it is on steroids with the speed in which it develops things but that could be something we are looking at toward end of Nov hopefully.

 

I still wouldn't be surprised to see your slider scenario pop back up and the ScEuro ridge has already proven more stubborn than I expected but I still think most of the enrgy will ride over the top and as posted before ECM that our first cold shot will come from a block to our W/NW not a block to our E/NE.

TWT and though I would rather be right, I will be happy to be wrong so long as we get a nice early cold shot.

[SMU]

Mucka maybe you & knocker want to look at the T2m ECM 12z ensembles to revisit your thought pattern

Wasnt you 'all in favour of mild atlantic just 24 hours ago'

?

[nick sussex]

At the moment I think we can safely show the Atlantic the door so good riddance to bad rubbish!

 

In terms of the ECM ensembles a stunning change from this mornings especially in terms of wind direction, a good cluster now go easterly! Did Santa infiltrate tonights NWP?

 

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim

 

At this rate I'll be getting out the Xmas CD early,

 

PS Mods can the powers that be please bring back the Santa emoticons, festive output deserves a Santa smiley!

Edited November 15, 2014 by nick sussex

[bluearmy]

despite posters putting up the odd chart to suit their point, the big news from the ecm 12z suite is the undercut.  heights are shown anomolously low through southern europe and the med through week 2. this is the first run to do this and given last sundays 12z ens run which was 'dodgy', i'll hang on till the morning before making too much of it.

[DAVID SNOW]

Just -15's? Maybe we could push for -20's

People are getting well ahead of the game tonight lol

 

Blimey, EES91 wasn't  making a forecast,just an observation,correct too    warm sea (relative) cold air aloft,strong flow would generate lots of snow showers.

 

And as he says models do seem to be "flipping"  yes, but my choice of word would be searching.....

[SMU]

I Jest-

 

The pendulum has just swung a little towards cold tonight, however thats another step towards cold thats been swinging since yesterday 12z..

 

Of course its a long way to go, everyone here knows that & it could all end in tears.....

 

However reasons to be cheerful tonight- the glass is firmly half full & hopefully in ten days time it will be half frozen..

 

Im off out-

 

18z-  Could continue the excitement but dont bank on it!

 

S

[SMU]

 

ECM T2M

 

look at the low dewpoint clustering

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim

Edited November 15, 2014 by Polar Maritime
To remove deleted post.