Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14

[Barry12]

Look at GFS FI!

 

 

Just for fun of course

Edited November 29, 2014 by Barry95

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Barry and some pretty cold temps to boot, Very nice N/H profile to see. And a growing trend for a possible potent Northerly 

 

Edited November 29, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

GEFS D10 argues for more cyclonic rossby-wave breaking on W coast with deeper Eastern trough. Classic wave 1 signal.

 

https://twitter.com/blizzardof96

[Summer Sun]

A cold wintry end to GFS this afternoon

 

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

I know it's fi but back this gem chart @240 some few hundred miles west and we will be cooking,should i say dancing in the snow

 

Edited November 29, 2014 by Allseasons-si

[gottolovethisweather]

Whilst a lot of folk will be viewing each and every consecutive run, I try to sit back from over-analysing each one and am fond of sticking with the 12z versions for any trend determining. Well to cut a long story short, remember this image showing the ECM 12z at t+168 hours, from my posting here some two days ago.

 

 

 

Well, two days on from the above, as already stated by other posters, the UKMO is now toying with a similar evolution by D5 (4th December).

 

 

Which opens the door for this at D6.

 

 

 

I've encircled areas in red once again to highlight regions of the globe which need watching carefully over the coming days as we head nearer the dates in question. 

 

I would suggest we can see a sausage shape on the final image but as to where the UKMO would go beyond the 5th December is anyone's guess. From a coldie's point of view, what I would like to witness is some cross-model consistency with the period concerned as frankly, these are decent synoptics considering we would've just left the third warmest Autumn on record in its wake. The GFS P wasn't so appreciative of evolving any relaxation of HP influence during late next week, so currently my feet are still firmly on the ground with this summisation from the UKMO. However, I have high hopes for something more seasonal upcoming before too long, given the NH pattern and other factors. It's over to the ECM 12z for now for any further signs of this general progression into Winter proper.

Edited November 29, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Jason M]

GFS opps runs might not be interested in the day 7 northerly but the ensemble suite is sniffing around that solution!

[Mucka]

GFS still pretty flat but it is looking as though it is likely going to have backtrack sooner rather than later re the Atlantic ridge and already its ensembles are showing the first signs of this with several members now showing a more amplified pattern to this mornings run.

It should be resolved one way or the other by tomorrow afternoon though just how amplified, how far West and what comes later will be a bit more of a drama I expect.

[SE Blizzards]

GFS is looking a bit lonely in all honesty in showing a flatter pattern at Day 6

 

 

Meanwhile the GEM + UKMO show more apmlification in the Atlantic, bringing in a northerly of sorts at Day 6...

 

 

 

More of what's below could be on the face of the GFS again, especially if the upcoming ECM shows a similar pattern as the GEM / UKMO

[Frosty.]

Support for a cold northerly arctic incursion is growing, nice to read the latest MO update is for the first time using the words wintry showers and not just for hills. It does seem to me that a more amplified pattern is in development with mid Atlantic high pressure / ridge occasionally pushing east across the uk but sometimes pulling back west to allow colder pm / arctic shots..I think frost and wintry ppn will not be in short supply during the first month of winter, I don't think coldies will get short changed like we did during the abysmal winter of 2013-14...

Edited November 29, 2014 by Frosty.

[Mucka]

Certainly more interest once more for coldies and it already beginning to look like any blocking will more likely favour a Scandi block than an Atlantic based one, at least initially as the Atlantic ridge topples over a trough which will prop it up and possibly allow undercut from there. I f that happens things will be looking much more favourable than earlier attempts at building a Scandi high that can pull in cold air over the UK with more amplified pattern likely upstream and hopefully the low heights around Greenland shifted further East. I could even let my mind wander to the idea of a an Atlantic ridge joining forces with a retrograding Scandi high over Greenland down the line but of course I won't. 

 

All of that would make my prediction that the first cold would come from a block to our NW rather than our NE wrong but hey I could live with it (again)

 

Lots of developments over the next few days of interest to cold weather fans hopefully but we need to pin down this ridge first.

Edited November 29, 2014 by Mucka

[gottolovethisweather]

Support for a cold northerly arctic incursion is growing, nice to read the latest MO is for the first time using the words wintry showers and not just for hills. It does seem to me that a more amplified pattern is in development with mid Atlantic high pressure occasionally bridging east but sometimes pulling back west to allow colder pm / arctic shots..

 

Incidentally Frosty, last night's BBC 10 day broadcast showed to my eyes at least what looked like a retrogressing High by the end of the working week. So, I am now left wondering whether this could well become the new trend.     Time will tell of course, but it may yet be a case of looking for a Northerly or Northeasterly flow instead of a NWr'ly at least initally. All a wee bit too far in the future to be certain though, plenty of fun and games to had with model watching however, whichever way one looks at things. 

Edited November 29, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[MR EXTREMES]

dont know whether im looking at the same charts as everyone else but things seem to be slipping away east heights seem a little slow to build and the vortex this morning seem to want to head east tonight it wants the vortex over this side to move west and then looks like setting up over greenland.

 

but the para is better than its older sister, but far to messy and a little flat but the older gfs has the zonal train exerting itself on the heights pushing it south south east.

 

to be honest the para gfs is awful to.

ukmo 

brief easterly then return to zonal them heights dont look like getting far enough north northeast.

the gem is what we would like but not likely to happen.

gefs looks pretty good but its hard to tell with such a powerful zonal push.5

but its better than the gefs by far.

and just a reminder what the ecm was like this morning anything close to this would be nice to see not convinced this is all heading in the right direction or not i was extremely confident a couple of days ago now im down to 60% confident that could drop by this evenings ecm.

but this is my chart of the day this mornings ecm

 

this mornings ecm has a deeper small depression near the azores but the others dont.

Edited November 29, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[legritter]

Support for a cold northerly arctic incursion is growing, nice to read the latest MO is for the first time using the words wintry showers and not just for hills. It does seem to me that a more amplified pattern is in development with mid Atlantic high pressure occasionally bridging east but sometimes pulling back west to allow colder pm / arctic shots..I think frost and wintry ppn will not be in short supply during the first month of winter, I don't think collides will get short changed like we did during the abysmal winter of 2013-14...

looking at all current charts and Data i too would think that any real cold or anything wintry would arrive from the N or N west in about a week or so .but positioning of high pressure will be crucial ,Tonights runs would have to firm up in this direction and GFS at 168 Hrs would need to flip and stay on course ,All this possible IF something of course is lurking out there .we need UK MET office at 148 hrs in near harmony with ECM Same chart .but gang things are a stiring looks like a week of interesting possibilitys ,Straws  and STellas at the ready .

[Barry12]

ukmo 

brief easterly then return to zonal them heights dont look like getting far enough north northeast.

 

A return to zonal?

 

One minute you think we will have a cold december, the next you say no cold until Jan...your mood changes more than the GFS changes it's forecasts.

[AWD]

Looking at the GEFS and deviation spread during the medium term, I'd look E/NE rather than NW for any possible cold weather for early winter.

An amplified pattern in the Atlantic looks likely to be forced north of the UK and settle a HP cell somewhere around Scandinavia, helped by low heights over the Med. It's unlikely to disrupt any activity over Greenland just yet.

EC 0z ens show a more lengthy seasonal regime for the start of winter;

And not too much in the way of rainfall, maybe an anticyclonic influence?

Anyway, further 12z model data yet to commence but I'd wager very little, if anything in the way of above average temps and rainfall for the first week or 2 of winter proper (biased more towards the South admittedly).

Edited November 29, 2014 by AWD

[nick sussex]

This upstream uncertainty continues with the GFS resolutely sticking to its view, the UKMO and GEM stick to theirs, the UKMO will likely topple the ridge but the intriguing aspect of this is what happens afterwards, so topple with small high developing near Scandi and then next low cutting more se'wards or topple further south with low heights moving east.

 

NCEP still prefer more dig south of cold into the ne USA which supports the more amplified solutions:

 

BY NEXT WED INTO THURS THE
ECMWF/ECENS PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WHILE THE
GFS/GEFS LIED FARTHER NORTH -- BUT NOT CONSISTENTLY IN RECENT
RUNS. SEEMS MORE SUPPORT LIES FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WHICH
FAVORS MAINTAINING AN ECMWF/ECENS BLEND

 

And for newer members something to bear in mind re the GFS and this is right from the horses mouth, comments from NCEP :

 

THE OFTEN SEEN FAST BIAS IN THE GFS/GEFS MAY WORK IN
THEIR FAVOR BUT HAVE OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE ECENS MEAN GIVEN
THE PREFERENCE IN THE EASTERN CONUS.

 

That was in relation to events later next week in the eastern Pacific.

 

The full discussion can be found here:

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
 

[Mucka]

Just to illustrate my earlier point on how GFS is on the move re the amplification of the pattern check out the pressure ensembles for the UK from the 5th note the difference between this morning and this afternoon mean which dips just below 1020mb on this afternoons run to closer to 1023mb on this mornings. that may seem insignificant but as a mean at that range it shows how the trough is being more sharply defined (a more amplified pattern is starting to show within the ensemble mean)

 

 

 

Also note how this afternoons Op and control runs are well above the mean meaning they are among the members with the flattest pattern and don't have that much support. It may be we see that mean min on the 5th Dec come down to around 1015mb or even 1010mb eventually (hopefully) though the evidence of a more amplified pattern within GFS will be far more conspicuous in the charts by that time.

 

In short GFS and to a large extent GFS (P) are out on a bit of a  weakening limb with their flat Atlantic patterns.

Edited November 29, 2014 by Mucka

[Banbury]

A return to zonal?

 

One minute you think we will have a cold december, the next you say no cold until Jan...your mood changes more than the GFS changes it's forecasts.

Im not too sure you can say a return to Zonal just by looking at chart, that is a brave assumption............

[MR EXTREMES]

so its looking like the ecm is on side with gfs 

but then again its got deeper low to our north which could slip down the northsea and aiding futher on.

over all the ecm looks like sticking to its guns.

Edited November 29, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[Mucka]

so its looking like the ecm is on side with gfs 

but then again its got deeper low to our north which could slip down the northsea and aiding futher on.

over all the ecm looks like sticking to its guns.

 

 

It is somewhere between UKMO and GFS so it will be interesting to see how it develops.

 

Edited November 29, 2014 by Mucka

[shaky]

Ecm looks closer to the ukmo and not the gfs!!! Just not as amplified and it looks more like a middle ground solution! !

[Ice Day]

ECM nowhere near as flat as the GFS at 144.  Let's see where next from here!

 

 

 

.and at 168 some colder uppers over the top of us.  Next Saturday will feel decidedly seasonal

 

Edited November 29, 2014 by Ice Day

[MR EXTREMES]

so greenland block is out of the question really dont know what to say not likely to see a northerly or arctic northerly and no northeaster either 

 

although on the next frame the vortex looks to be on the move with another pulse of heights second bite of the cherry maybe.

Edited November 29, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[radiohead]

so greenland block is out of the question really dont know what to say not likely to see a northerly or arctic northerly and no northeaster either 

although on the next frame the vortex looks to be on the move with another pulse of heights second bite of the cherry maybe.

 

In the end, pretty similar to the GFS at 168 there.