Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14

[Altohumorous]

If the outcome of this week is HP building over and very close to these islands, I really hope we aren't headed for one of those '70's'-type winters where mid-lat blocking dominates for weeks on end. There have been winters where virtually nothing of interest happened, and last winter would look like a very exciting one in comparison to an average temp mid-lat HP-dominated one.

 

Certainly the current forecasts and even the past 2-3 weeks have the look of a pattern that will stay, well, not very interesting weather-wise. Very middle-ground sort of stuff, unless as some are saying the changes to our west produce some major change for us. Or are they just serving to help build/maintain a mid-lat block scenario? In my experience these kinds of blocks do not lead to major cold and they don't change quick. I think winter 2007/8 was an example, though that was more interesting and a bit colder than the 70s ones that I recall

[winterof79]

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

 

not much explanation needed 

 

pretty dry and calm aswell.  just like a seventies november should be !

Agreed BA the possibility of the PV splitting during this  November/December has similarities amongst others including the Aleution Low to what took place during  this year.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archivesnh-1978-11-5-0-0.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archivesnh-1978-11-20-0-0.png the PV trying to migrate from east to west

Heights rebuilding to our N/E

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archivesnh-1978-11-30-0-0.png

And the split during December

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archivesnh-1978-12-10-0-0.png

Edited November 16, 2014 by winterof79

[winterof79]

If the outcome of this week is HP building over and very close to these islands, I really hope we aren't headed for one of those '70's'-type winters where mid-lat blocking dominates for weeks on end. There have been winters where virtually nothing of interest happened, and last winter would look like a very exciting one in comparison to an average temp mid-lat HP-dominated one.

 

Certainly the current forecasts and even the past 2-3 weeks have the look of a pattern that will stay, well, not very interesting weather-wise. Very middle-ground sort of stuff, unless as some are saying the changes to our west produce some major change for us. Or are they just serving to help build/maintain a mid-lat block scenario? In my experience these kinds of blocks do not lead to major cold and they don't change quick. I think winter 2007/8 was an example, though that was more interesting and a bit colder than the 70s ones that I recall

A mundane mid latitude block from the 70s

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1977/archives-1977-12-15-0-0.png

Still boring

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1977/archivesnh-1977-12-21-0-0.png

Pesky block still hanging around

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archivesnh-1978-1-7-0-0.png

 

Hang on though.....BOOM

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archivesnh-1978-1-12-0-0.png  What a January that was.

 

BOOM........

Edited November 16, 2014 by winterof79

[Timmytour]

A mundane mid latitude block from the 70s

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1977/archives-1977-12-15-0-0.png

Still boring

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1977/archivesnh-1977-12-21-0-0.png

Pesky block still hanging around

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archivesnh-1978-1-7-0-0.png

 

Hang on though.....BOOM

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archivesnh-1978-1-12-0-0.png  What a January that was.

 

BOOM........

The Feburary got better for the South

May be a possiblility the models today are easing their way into showing us something similar? An early solo attempt soon scuppered...bought back with a bit more support before being eased back....not scientific I know but i have the feeling this has happened before and in a couple of days time the models might be teasing us with a greater consensus in showing something like that Feb 78

Edited November 16, 2014 by Timmytour

[phil nw.]

Well the models have certainly weakened the Atlantic push for the next week or so and indeed re enforced the Euro/Scandinavian blocking signal.

A look at the last 3 ECM height anomaly forecasts for the same time over the last 3 daily 00z runs- origionally  for day 10 now down to day 8 and the trend is clear.

 

 

Unfortunately Meteoceil havent updated today's Naefs for comparison but the one yesterday was going the same way.

We can't really say for sure where we may be this time next week as there is doubt upstream wrt the amount of ridging and orientation/direction of the downstream trough.

It does look though that a full on Atlantic looks less likely than 3 or 4 days ago.Indeed the signal for some sort of mid-latitude block,maybe a little further north or east than the UK is looking more likely.

Anyway the 12z runs are starting so we will see.

 

[johnholmes]

Well the models have certainly weakened the Atlantic push for the next week or so and indeed re enforced the Euro/Scandinavian blocking signal.

A look at the last 3 ECM height anomaly forecasts for the same time over the last 3 daily 00z runs- origionally  for day 10 now down to day 8 and the trend is clear.

 

EDH101-240.gifEDH101-216.gifEDH101-192.gif

 

Unfortunately Meteoceil havent updated today's Naefs for comparison but the one yesterday was going the same way.

We can't really say for sure where we may be this time next week as there is doubt upstream wrt the amount of ridging and orientation/direction of the downstream trough.

It does look though that a full on Atlantic looks less likely than 3 or 4 days ago.Indeed the signal for some sort of mid-latitude block,maybe a little further north or east than the UK is looking more likely.

Anyway the 12z runs are starting so we will see.

 

nicely illustrated there phil with a sequence showing a similar outcome for the same date. That method is well worth bearing in mind with any model output. It can go wrong but far less often than taking each model output as being correct.

[Daniel*]

T+120 on the GFS 12z long stretch southerly winds from North Africa! No wonder it's quiet.

Good to see WAA going up to Greenland which should help encourage blocking

*fixed* should have added so far. more continental influence later in the run, setting up for colder conditions for the continent, UK as ever on the boundary.

Edited November 16, 2014 by Daniel*

[Banbury]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17417.gif

 

 

Single digits only just across the water

[CanadaAl]

I think the reason it's quiet is because meteociel has crashed. Managed to get a look and block appears to be holding more firm this run 

[Eugene]

T+120 on the GFS 12z long stretch southerly winds from North Africa! No wonder it's quiet.

Good to see WAA going up to Greenland which should help encourage blocking

image.jpgimage.jpg

 

 

Doesn't equate to anything special 2M temp wise on the ground though and dewpoints aren't anything toasty either, excellent runs for those who want a blocked setup, mild SSE'lys are usually a precursor to something special for cold weather fans down the line

[Banbury]

I think the reason it's quiet is because meteociel has crashed. Managed to get a look and block appears to be holding more firm this run 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014111612/gfsnh-0-240.png?12

 

Very firm.........................to this point

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn19217.gif

 

The lower temps fly into the UK, very welcome

[Jason M]

Watching it come out on Wetter and out to 216 looks a better run to me. Block stronger with a decent easterly developing. Not particularly cold in 850s terms but getting there.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

hopefully the link will work!

Jason

[Milhouse]

Next Saturday looking mild on the gfs 12z but fog may linger as a result of light winds. The 10c isotherm briefly making an appearance. But before then a much drier and quieter week to come but with winds coming from an easterly direction it will stay disappointingly dull for many. Temps around average but heading up towards next weekend.

 

[Banbury]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014111612/gfsnh-0-384.png?12

 

Ends with a LP to the SW of the UK, a decent run from GFS

[IDO]

GFS op and Parallel moves the Sceuro ridge west, so the UK benefits from the plume from Africa next weekend. Too early to say about temps:

 

 

By D10 its deja vu again as we have a similar setup to now, with the Sceuro ridge back east a bit and the Atlantic splitting energy with potential undercut:

 

 

Not this time, by D16: 

 

So a continuation of the backtrack re a UK MLB and really just more of the same with the ebb and flow of the Atlantic to the west and the block to the E/NE. The UK caught in the middle.

 

UKMO:  GEM: 

 

After all the shenanigans maybe they have settled on the repeating pattern. We shall see...

Edited November 16, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[blizzard81]

Due to it's bias towards over amplification to our north west, I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a climb down on tonight's ECM. Pressure is much lower to our west on 12z GFS & UKMO.

[snow mad]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014111612/gfsnh-0-384.png?12

 

Ends with a LP to the SW of the UK, a decent run from GFS

Would love to see the next frame

[Banbury]

Next Saturday looking mild on the gfs 12z but fog may linger as a result of light winds. The 10c isotherm briefly making an appearance. But before then a much drier and quieter week to come but with winds coming from an easterly direction it will stay disappointingly dull for many. Temps around average but heading up towards next weekend.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15017.gif

 

Temps look average away from the far S and SW

 

And the following weekend they are lower http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn31217.gif

 

Not really sure where you are getting your information from??

[knocker]

Taking a very local view of the 12z The anomaly still has the Canadian trough western Atlantic and HP to east dominating with the wee fella off Morocco.

Jet running between the two major systems with a localised jet around the Moroccan low. Above average temps for much of the run.

 

[Milhouse]

Not really sure where you are getting your information from??

 

My mistake. I was looking at the GFS parallel run. Temps are 3/4c higher

 

[Banbury]

My mistake. I was looking at the GFS parallel run. Temps are 3/4c higher

 

Fair shout, as you imply there is quite a difference, be interesting to see how that pans out

[Man With Beard]

My mistake. I was looking at the GFS parallel run. Temps are 3/4c higher

 

I think if we are looking at weather phenomenen rather than cold, the next issue ahead is not cold but warmth. That chart may say 15C, but 16C/17C not out of the question. No rain, and not too close to the HP centre. I wonder when the last recorded instance of 17C in any one year is?

[legritter]

looking at current charts and also having a good look around northern hemisphere Data the next 6/7 days to me seems typical late Autumn ,but beyond that some interesting possibilitys .high pressure to our far east could influence our Island and also the possibility of high pressure to our north .Of  course tonights ECM run could also flip back to last nights final chart ,but hands up i was full of joy last night with ECM ,thought for a second the starting gun had fired .But i do like todays 144 Hrs ECM if we can get to that i will be pleased .Many twists and turns to come but nice to be able to discuss the Models on this brilliant forum .

[knocker]

The upgrade looking at some impressive temp anomalies.

 

[Banbury]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-264.png?12

 

The control is keen of a colder SEly

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-0-264.png?12