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Paul

Wales - Weather Chat

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The bbc animation at 7pm showed snow hitting se wales in the early hours , i guess temps will need to drop a few deg first.

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Pretty sure it will be rain or sleet for most of us, the usual hill snow in the north and east. It has a mild sector (relatively speaking). Of course if it is a true polar low it may have died out before it even gets here!

Agree with that Tony producing rain/sleet atm.

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Line of showers coming down from the north west look to just about miss me to the east here in Cardiff :(

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Don't get too excited about this 'polar low' it will be mostly rain/sleet below 250m far to marginal.

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Line of showers coming down from the north west look to just about miss me to the east here in Cardiff :(

 

Seem to keep fizzling out over the valleys too. We had a light shower west of Newport an hour ago but it pretty much died overhead.

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Don't get too excited about this 'polar low' it will be mostly rain/sleet below 250m far to marginal.

Yep. Although if it tracks further west, maybe we will see something but we are too far south and west of the low in the current track (milder side). As you go further north and east, your chances will increase. You can see the less cold air in Northern Ireland at the moment, the heavy precipitation arriving in the west is of the wet rather than the white variety it was earlier.

 

If you're above 200 metres and in east mid wales, you're probably going to have a good night.

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Bah, maybe I'm a bit old-fashioned, but It's not a polar low as far as I'm concerned- it's just a shallow low pressure that's formed in the flow.

 

True polar lows (when I was a lad) formed in much colder air and were snow beginning, middle and end...

 

'Marginal' didn't come into it.

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I was in work but the any w was a major distraction for everyone! Only if the ground was colder could have had an inch or two. Monday looks very good for snow apparently.

 

Heavy snow briefly this morning, heavy rain(possibly sleet) in town at work for the morning, but turned to heavy snow and lasted a good 20 minutes with frequent outbreaks of snow during the afternoon, never close to settling.

People in work were equally distracted.

 

Nearby hills were covered in snow when I left, (within a few miles), apparently up here the snow gave coverings each time, but nothing left now.

 

IMO the key today was the wind direction change, closer to a NW a bit later than expected admittedly :wallbash:

 

and the colder 850hpa and better thickness value around early afternoon.

 

Pity it didn't happen overnight.

 

Nervous for the weekend, even though not here Saturday afternoon to Sunday evening. :wallbash:

Edited by J10

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Heavy snow briefly this morning, heavy rain(possibly sleet) in town at work for the morning, but turned to heavy snow and lasted a good 20 minutes with frequent outbreaks of snow during the afternoon, never close to settling.

People in work were equally distracted.

 

Nearby hills were covered in snow when I left, (within a few miles), apparently up here the snow gave coverings each time, but nothing left now.

 

IMO the key today was the wind direction change, closer to a NW a bit later than expected admittedly :wallbash:

 

and the colder 850hpa and better thickness value around early afternoon.

 

Pity it didn't happen overnight.

 

Nervous for the weekend, even though not here Saturday afternoon to Sunday evening. :wallbash:

Lol I need to stop typing on my phone as it never makes sense.

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Heavy snow briefly this morning, heavy rain(possibly sleet) in town at work for the morning, but turned to heavy snow and lasted a good 20 minutes with frequent outbreaks of snow during the afternoon, never close to settling.

People in work were equally distracted.

 

Nearby hills were covered in snow when I left, (within a few miles), apparently up here the snow gave coverings each time, but nothing left now.

 

IMO the key today was the wind direction change, closer to a NW a bit later than expected admittedly :wallbash:

 

and the colder 850hpa and better thickness value around early afternoon.

 

Pity it didn't happen overnight.

 

Nervous for the weekend, even though not here Saturday afternoon to Sunday evening. :wallbash:

Yes J10 this is our first chance of a covering sat/sun .

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Yr un peth yn wir 'da ni yn y de, cawodydd o eira, dechrau glynu wedyn toddi - angen y sdwff iawn arno ni nawr yn lle'r chwarae bach 'ma!

 

Same true here, snow showers, starts to settle then melts - we need the proper stuff now not this child's play!

 

ond gwella gan dim byd

 

(meant to mean better than nothing)

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ond gwella gan dim byd

 

(meant to mean better than nothing)

 Yn wir :) (That's true)

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Agree with that Tony producing rain/sleet atm.

Well it wont be here until midnight so we shall see, I shall be surprised if it gives snow accumulation here though.

Bah, maybe I'm a bit old-fashioned, but It's not a polar low as far as I'm concerned- it's just a shallow low pressure that's formed in the flow.

 

True polar lows (when I was a lad) formed in much colder air and were snow beginning, middle and end...

 

'Marginal' didn't come into it.

I tried to say that in the PL thread but it is definitely the real deal according to them :)

I remain a devoted polar low skeptic!

Edited by TonyH

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So am I right in thinking here in S E Wales at 350m asl we are going to get a gd snow fall this evening? Had some heavy showers here in Blaenavon during the da, some of which have caused chaos on the roads.

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So am I right in thinking here in S E Wales at 350m asl we are going to get a gd snow fall this evening? Had some heavy showers here in Blaenavon during the da, some of which have caused chaos on the roads.

Good chance you have more snow but after midnight mainly.

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_low

 

Given the above temps, the core of this "polar" Low doesn't come close to being a real Polar Low, so to my mind is not a Polar Low.

 

post-213-0-04960900-1422562092_thumb.gif

 

In terms of this evening, this afternoon has proved you cannot rule anything out, however the parameters for this evening are possibly the least cold over this cold snap/spell, so anything overnight is a bonus.


Bah, maybe I'm a bit old-fashioned, but It's not a polar low as far as I'm concerned- it's just a shallow low pressure that's formed in the flow.

 

True polar lows (when I was a lad) formed in much colder air and were snow beginning, middle and end...

 

'Marginal' didn't come into it.

 

If being old fashioned means being meteorologically correct, then you are old fashioned.

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_low

 

Given the above temps, the core of this "polar" Low doesn't come close to being a real Polar Low, so to my mind is not a Polar Low.

 

attachicon.gif15012915_2912.gif

 

In terms of this evening, this afternoon has proved you cannot rule anything out, however the parameters for this evening are possibly the least cold over this cold snap/spell, so anything overnight is a bonus.

 

If being old fashioned means being meteorologically correct, then you are old fashioned.

 

Ha Ha.

 

They've coined the phrase Modern Polar Low on the dedicated thread i.e. something that's not as good as it used to be.

 

Still, as long as it dumps a load of snow somewhere in Wales, that's fine with me.

 

Someone also warning of 100+ mph gusts for Pembrokeshire tonight- is that at all likely/possible?? 

Edited by benb

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Ha Ha.

 

They've coined the phrase Modern Polar Low on the dedicated thread i.e. something that's not as good as it used to be.

 

Still, as long as it dumps a load of snow somewhere in Wales, that's fine with me.

 

Someone also warning of 100+ mph gusts for Pembrokeshire tonight- is that at all likely/possible?? 

Its just part of this internet age dumbing down of things we are getting more and more! Polar Low My A--E!

Roger always seems to go overboard with storms cant see 70mph let alone 100mph.

Edited by TonyH

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Also, looks a fair bit of southerly movement on those bands of precipitation across Eire.

 

I'm far from convinced the track is yet a done deal...

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Mostly rain over NI currently you cant have a rainy Polar low..

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Rain in belfast, you dont really want to be on the western side of the feature unfortunately, looks too warm. Monday still of interest, similar feature moving from the north but currently modelled further west and in much colder air.

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Rain in belfast, you dont really want to be on the western side of the feature unfortunately, looks too warm. Monday still of interest, similar feature moving from the north but currently modelled further west and in much colder air.

Mondays is undoubtedly not a polar low :)

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Its just part of this internet age dumbing down of things we are getting more and more! Polar Low My A--E!

Roger always seems to go overboard with storms cant see 70mph let alone 100mph.

 

I think they call that value...  ;-)

 

Have to see re wind speed. XC Weather is forecasting 60mph at midnight on the Pembroke Buoy and 56mph on the Aberporth Buoy.

 

Is this system going to turn the wind back Westrly in front of it and raise the temps to the wrong side of marginal for snow away from the mountains?

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Better stay out of the thingy thread they get upset when you say you dont think it is in fact one!

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