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Paul

By Paul
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dbaloo Enthusiast

dbaloo

Posted
  • Location: Hengoed 208m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy..warm summers but not so hot you can fry an egg on the ground
  • Location: Hengoed 208m asl
Posted

well that was an extremely sketchy weekly weather forecast on countyfile just then.showing rain for most if the uk,but watch the weather everyday was the advice as its going to change

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whiskers Enthusiast

whiskers

Posted
  • Location: blackwood south wales 179m asl
  • Location: blackwood south wales 179m asl
Posted

Bugger,turned over and it finished,didn't miss anything then! Didn't mention snow for us then :(

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gareth moo Explorer

gareth moo

Posted
  • Location: Machen, Caerphilly, 80m asl.
  • Location: Machen, Caerphilly, 80m asl.
Posted

Interesting that they talking about sweet spots  Lol ,I give you a sweet spot Snowdonia :rofl:

Yup, no doubt! GFS at the same time has the front pushing through without a scrap of any worth. 48hrs and still no consensus, therefore the vague forecast on the telly i guess. Nice to see the pros earning their salaries! Anyone know what Fergie is saying?

15012018_1812.gif

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J10 Veteran

J10

Posted
Posted (edited)

NMM at 12Hz Tuesday

 

post-213-0-77187200-1421611348_thumb.png post-213-0-85471400-1421611468_thumb.png

 

Goes for the undercut

 

Such an undercut increases the risk of any precipitation being wintry with a smaller "mild" sector. however without any precipitation it does not matter anyway.

post-213-0-73909400-1421612025_thumb.png

post-213-0-86684000-1421612027_thumb.png

post-213-0-88310500-1421612029_thumb.png

post-213-0-94450400-1421612031_thumb.png

post-213-0-12572600-1421612034_thumb.png

Edited by J10
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Ukwoody Contributor

Ukwoody

Posted
  • Location: Milford Haven, Pembrokeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Milford Haven, Pembrokeshire
Posted

Sorry J, what does that mean? No snow? Rain? 

woody

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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted

It'a certainly a 'staller'. Temperatures are looking marginal for most of the principality. I think that PPN may be at a premium however. Euro4 has the front smashed to pieces by the time it hits our shores. Should make for decent radar watching Tuesday afternoon and evening though!

 

15012012_1812.gif

Agreed it will be exciting anticipating whether it happens or not.

HAHAHA the Countryfie forecast was so vague :p

Yep really was not a lot of use..

Sorry J, what does that mean? No snow? Rain? 

woody

Dry

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J10 Veteran

J10

Posted
Posted (edited)

GFS


 

post-213-0-12572600-1421612034_thumb.png post-213-0-94450400-1421612031_thumb.png post-213-0-88310500-1421612029_thumb.png post-213-0-86684000-1421612027_thumb.png post-213-0-73909400-1421612025_thumb.png

 

Goes for a snow to rain event on Tuesday with 850HPa uppers rising to -2c. However reverting back a bit to snow later as upper falls. Staying as snow longer in the North, for a Shorter time in the south.

 

Wednesday sees more of a risk of snow for Southern areas colder uppers edge in. (Back below -5c)

 

However precipitation amounts are not massive anywhere.

 

All the above is entirely based on GFS 12Hz run.

Edited by J10
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keithlucky Experienced

keithlucky

Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
Posted

 

GFS

 

 

 

Goes for a snow to rain event on Tuesday with 850HPa uppers rising to -2c. However reverting back a bit to snow later as upper falls. Staying as snow longer in the North, for a Shorter time in the south.

 

Wednesday sees more of a risk of snow for Southern areas colder uppers edge in. (Back below -5c)

 

However precipitation amounts are not massive anywhere.

 

All the above is entirely based on GFS 12Hz run.

 

Interesting J10 the front seems to have stalled on Wales no eastwards  progress until day later hgt300.png

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keithlucky Experienced

keithlucky

Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
Posted (edited)

Listening to what the met office are saying seems that fronts are Not going to get much past the Welsh marshes ,so any wintry weather we should see in Western UK ,central and eastern parts  of UK mostly dry ,with temperatures around 4c across in Wales ,confidence is growing in at least seeing a dusting in western UK.

Edited by keithlucky
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Pembroke Dangler Aficionado

Pembroke Dangler

Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
Posted

You watch this system get backed up further west so all of wales gets in on the snow including us on the south coast it's looking more and more likely each model run! My met office app is showing light snow now from midnight to 3am Wednesday

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Muffelchen Enthusiast

Muffelchen

Posted
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder - not necessarily at the same time!
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL
Posted (edited)

Looks a bit like a Pembrokeshire Dangler there off St Davids at the mo, Sadly from NW radar it looks like all rain but nice to see. I remember one amazing Boxing Day when we had snow shower after snow shower in Pembroke from one of these. Must have been around about 1980. Been few and far between in recent years....

 

Edit: just noticed the handle of the previous poster :D What a coincidence: just popped over from Yorks and Lincs to make the comment after looking at the radar. Good luck this week with the white stuff :good:

Edited by Muffelchen
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worldairgroup Newbie

worldairgroup

Posted
  • Location: A470, Upper Boat, Pontypridd
  • Location: A470, Upper Boat, Pontypridd
Posted

 

GFS

 

 

 

Goes for a snow to rain event on Tuesday with 850HPa uppers rising to -2c. However reverting back a bit to snow later as upper falls. Staying as snow longer in the North, for a Shorter time in the south.

 

Wednesday sees more of a risk of snow for Southern areas colder uppers edge in. (Back below -5c)

 

However precipitation amounts are not massive anywhere.

 

All the above is entirely based on GFS 12Hz run.

 

 

Evening all, albeit late! I do like those charts, lovely. Case of just nowcasting and see what happens. :)

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J10 Veteran

J10

Posted
Posted

EURO4 manages to push precipitation further east by 6pm. but still little precipitation, or snow for that matter. with Wales now in mild sector.

 

post-213-0-67524900-1421624291_thumb.gif post-213-0-64710800-1421624293_thumb.gif post-213-0-57724100-1421624295_thumb.gif

 

Nothing really of note (or significant) there.

 

Of more interest is what follows on Wednesday with colder air associated with it. Interested to see what EURO4 makes of this tomorrow.

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whiskers Enthusiast

whiskers

Posted
  • Location: blackwood south wales 179m asl
  • Location: blackwood south wales 179m asl
Posted

So confused this morning,will it,won't it,yes or no? It seems nobody knows! When does the met office put up their warnings?

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marclt Apprentice

marclt

Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
Posted

A light dusting here this morning. Less than the last few mornings.

My fear for this cold spell is the the cold is not cold enough of the PPN just not intense enough.

Feels like its always happening tomorrow....

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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted (edited)

Cold enough here Marc -7c!

Edited by TonyH
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Fujita scale Apprentice

Fujita scale

Posted
  • Location: Gilfach, Bargoed - SE Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Gales - active weather!!!
  • Location: Gilfach, Bargoed - SE Wales
Posted

Nothing extra overnight and only -1.6°C - so not the major drop in temperature that was predicted up here.

 

Looking in the mod thread it looks like we are, yet again, going to be mostly unlucky with regards to snow.

 

We require a dramatic short term upgrade and the mild sectors to be over cooked - the cold needs to undercut much more.

 

Not over yet but getting close to the time when we need a bit of help!

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Snowyowl9 Veteran

Snowyowl9

Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
Posted (edited)

Coldest january night since 2010 here at -3.6c it could still get lower,its colder than shawbury.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Theres still a brief easterly showing as the low tracks south,cold air swinging back in.

http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850&region=eu&t=3d

Edited by Snowyowl9
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keithlucky Experienced

keithlucky

Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
Posted

So confused this morning,will it,won't it,yes or no? It seems nobody knows! When does the met office put up their warnings?

Warning put out Tuesday morning (early )to see if there is any upgrade .

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gareth moo Explorer

gareth moo

Posted
  • Location: Machen, Caerphilly, 80m asl.
  • Location: Machen, Caerphilly, 80m asl.
Posted (edited)

With Dew points like this, South Wales can certainly look forwards to lovely cold rain tomorrow evening. The warm sector will indeed do what it says on the tin! Better chances North and elevated obviously.

 

15012021_1900.gif

This is at same time as the higher intensity PPN

15012021_1900.gif

Hopefully the showers that follow may throw in something a little more white. All based on EURO4 00z.

 

Cracking morning out there however.

Edited by gareth moo
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marksiwnc Explorer

marksiwnc

Posted
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd
  • Weather Preferences: very cold or very hot
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd
Posted

Suddenly it's snowing heavily in caernarfon... That was a shock

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Cwmbran Eira Contributor

Cwmbran Eira

Posted
  • Location: Monmouth - 280 ft asl
  • Location: Monmouth - 280 ft asl
Posted (edited)

This week may not deliver much in terms of snow but at least we've been blessed with some stunning winter sun.

 

If i can't have snow I'll take crips dry sunny days quite happily

Edited by Cwmbran Eira
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