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Paul

By Paul
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dbaloo Enthusiast

dbaloo

Posted
  • Location: Hengoed 208m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy..warm summers but not so hot you can fry an egg on the ground
  • Location: Hengoed 208m asl
Posted

got caught in a lovely hail shower this morning. Was freezing outside painting all day today....hopefully this last week is a good omen for winter but anything has to be better than the last one! A lot of talk about a ssw in the model thread for Jan now but time will tell ,℠⛄

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Blackjack Apprentice

Blackjack

Posted
  • Location: Crickhowell 105m/343ft
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather, wind, snow, heat, storms
  • Location: Crickhowell 105m/343ft
Posted

gfs-2-66.png?12

gfs-0-66.png?12

gfs-1-66.png?12

 

Could this possibly be our first snow of the season? Okay it may be a bit wet but who knows what could follow after this low barrels through. There's a couple of fronts on the FAX chart so it may be back edge snow? Any assistance from the better educated would be great. 

It's certainly not turning out the same as last year...

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keithlucky Experienced

keithlucky

Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
Posted (edited)

gfs-2-66.png?12

gfs-0-66.png?12

gfs-1-66.png?12

 

Could this possibly be our first snow of the season? Okay it may be a bit wet but who knows what could follow after this low barrels through. There's a couple of fronts on the FAX chart so it may be back edge snow? Any assistance from the better educated would be great. 

It's certainly not turning out the same as last year...

Yes with this charts like this a wintry mix possible for all.uksnowrisk.png

Edited by keithlucky
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Bonjangle Apprentice

Bonjangle

Posted
  • Location: S East Wales
  • Location: S East Wales
Posted

WoW ,The wind has really picked up here in the last hour and by heck it ain't half howling down the chimney stack , and all the fallen leaves have disappeared from out the front and have gone , saves me again picking them up , look's like a stormy night is also in store for us , Stay safe folk up North and Batten down the Hatches . :cold:

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marclt Apprentice

marclt

Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
Posted

Where are you getting ghese from? How accurate are they?

Pretty gusty down west tonight.

Cleddau Bridge shut to high sided vehicles, windier than predicted.

12/12/201406:00   SNOW FALL CHART 

WILL CHANGE EVERY MODEL RUN

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Blackjack Apprentice

Blackjack

Posted
  • Location: Crickhowell 105m/343ft
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather, wind, snow, heat, storms
  • Location: Crickhowell 105m/343ft
Posted (edited)

I know its not the most scientific way of doing things but has anyone else done some chart matching for the next 48 hours and 10-12 Dec 1962. Things look similar......ish!!! Just clinging on to rays of hope as the Mod thread is in the pit of despair.

 

h500slp.png

Rrea00119621212.gif

 

Which went to this

 

Rrea00119621229.gif

 

Hey i've got took for snow somewhere

Edited by Blackjack
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dbaloo Enthusiast

dbaloo

Posted
  • Location: Hengoed 208m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy..warm summers but not so hot you can fry an egg on the ground
  • Location: Hengoed 208m asl
Posted

I know its not the most scientific way of doing things but has anyone else done some chart matching for the next 48 hours and 10-12 Dec 1962. Things look similar......ish!!! Just clinging on to rays of hope as the Mod thread is in the pit of despair.

 

h500slp.png

Rrea00119621212.gif

 

Which went to this

 

Rrea00119621229.gif

 

Hey i've got took for snow somewhere

lol, its just picked up in there in the last hour.............their all so cryptic all the time. no definite answers given by anyone. they must have some big prams and big toys as their always throwing them out!

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Blackjack Apprentice

Blackjack

Posted
  • Location: Crickhowell 105m/343ft
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather, wind, snow, heat, storms
  • Location: Crickhowell 105m/343ft
Posted

Its hilarious even from the more knowledgeable posters. I've seen mild and cold ramped since mid Nov. Mild lovers winding up coldies and vice versa. Nothing has played out exactly as some have so confidently predicted.

 

I've decided this year to pick 24th Dec as obviously its the date of interest at this time of year. The 06z GFS is my run of choice. So I'm looking at the 850 temp and 500 height as well as the NH 500 and comparing each run as it gets closer to the day. Its just a way for me to educate myself and try and look for trends and also see how so many bold predictions in the Mod thread can be so wrong 14 days out. 

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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted

Its hilarious even from the more knowledgeable posters. I've seen mild and cold ramped since mid Nov. Mild lovers winding up coldies and vice versa. Nothing has played out exactly as some have so confidently predicted.

 

I've decided this year to pick 24th Dec as obviously its the date of interest at this time of year. The 06z GFS is my run of choice. So I'm looking at the 850 temp and 500 height as well as the NH 500 and comparing each run as it gets closer to the day. Its just a way for me to educate myself and try and look for trends and also see how so many bold predictions in the Mod thread can be so wrong 14 days out. 

Indeed BJ as so often happens in the UK we get a halfway house of weather with snow at a premium (early days though this particular Winter :) )

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J10 Veteran

J10

Posted
Posted (edited)

It often is the case in the UK that snow is very hard to come by. However in some winters over the past 10 years, once the cold is in place, snow can come seemingly very easily (Feb 09 / Jan 10) but that isn't really the norm.

 

To me the uppers for Friday are a bit too high for any widespread wintry precipitation / snow for the back edge snow event.

 

post-213-0-32888500-1418236282_thumb.gif post-213-0-68645500-1418236283_thumb.gif

 

There is a brief period of colder uppers later on Friday, but the uppers even then are comparable to that of last weekend.

Edited by J10
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marclt Apprentice

marclt

Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
Posted

This thread is really slow!

How are we going to get some more posts! Wind is pretty gust now, a few short rain bursts here. Expected a little hail maybe. But just short, sharp rain.

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Blackjack Apprentice

Blackjack

Posted
  • Location: Crickhowell 105m/343ft
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather, wind, snow, heat, storms
  • Location: Crickhowell 105m/343ft
Posted

Its all looking like transient cold for the reliable time frame. Cold and wet and maybe not so cold at times. A typical Dec then.

 

No model out to t96 - t120 looks like building sustainable heights to our north and the jet looks quite strong and flat during that time frame. 

 

The NAO looks set to go negative towards the end of Dec so i'm guessing the New Year and into Jan is when we could see the jet deflecting and some prolonged cold periods. 

 

There is also growing confidence that Stratospheric warming could occur in the latter part of Dec which to my amateur knowledge could mean some influence on our weather in mid Jan, possibly bringing more 'interesting' weather for Coldies. 

 

I am still learning and trying to piece together information from many threads and would welcome anyone's thoughts on things. Not so bold as to post in the Mod thread just yet. 

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Blackjack Apprentice

Blackjack

Posted
  • Location: Crickhowell 105m/343ft
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather, wind, snow, heat, storms
  • Location: Crickhowell 105m/343ft
Posted

Way out there at t240 but is the GFS 12z starting to produce shallow lows off Newfoundland tracking further south? Possible start of height gains to Greenland?

 

Will blocking occur to Greenland and will the lows be pushed further south on successive runs???

 

Straw clutching?

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Ukwoody Contributor

Ukwoody

Posted
  • Location: Milford Haven, Pembrokeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Milford Haven, Pembrokeshire
Posted

Blimey. It's cold out there.  Station shows 9.3 feeling lie 5.3 but it feels a damn sight colder that that. Brrrr     Barometer has really dropped now to 999.

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Snowyowl9 Veteran

Snowyowl9

Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
Posted

Felt cold today temps of 3.7c early afternoon but with just rain/hail and sleet showers,pretty uninspiring no mans land.

Temps have actually gone up since now at 5.2c

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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted

Rather mild and wet here 7c.

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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted

Sleety rain on the back edge currently; 3.5c/ DP 2.7c.

An inch of rain past 24 hours.

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Cymro Community Regular

Cymro

Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
Posted

Very cold this evening with the car frosted over leaving work, 16:45 today! I wonder if we will see anything wintry in the showers this evening.

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