Scotland - Weather Chat

[Northern Strath]

Exceptionally heavy sleet and rain here with very gusty winds.

What's happening up on the strath NorthernStrath?

Sorry NR I was down in inverness last night expertly crafting the quite stunning hangover which I've had today

Wee snow covering still around the garden, guessing it won't last further mildness tomorrow/Monday

Looking forward to see what weather the Christmas week brings

2C

[Hairy Celt]

Here comes the rain again.  Stuck record weather this - cold and wet, mild and wet, cold and wet, mild and wet....

 

Lets try the CAPSLOCK trick again.

 

WHERE'S THE FRIGID NORTHERLY GOT TO?

[Bullseye]

I wonder if Steve Murr white Christmas bet will come off, looks less likely now but surely still some chance. Gfs and its brother couldn't be more different on latest runs!

[edo]

Looking less likely but still potential of showers in Inverness and a technical white xmas

[Polar Maritime]

Nice to see the Highlands has more snow than the Alps so far this season 

[Sraigcaife]

Well we've made it........the shortest day of the year !! This is when winter really should start.

Unfortunately today looks very atlantic driven with fast moving clouds from the west.

I don't think this winter has been too bad in these parts we've had snow nearby at higher levels, plenty of hard frosts and some very stormy weather as well.

We could do with an easterly blast though to deliver some real cold and snow !!

[mistyqueen]

We are off to Skye on Monday. Cottage booked for a week over Christmas away from the rellies, inlaws and outlaws. Bit of snow on the Cuillins would be nice but not so much we can't get there - don't mind getting snowed in once we are there though  :smiliz64: 

 

How's the forecast looking looking - too stressful to search through model threads? 

Well, there's a dusting of snow on the Cuillins just now, although I suspect that today's rain could well wash it away! I believe it will be cold and frosty for the Big Day itself, so you should be able to get here OK. Right now the temp is 13.9, breezy and wet....a normal Skye winter's day really. Be nice to see some clear skies and sunshine though. Happy Yule to everyone! :w00t:   

[blitzen]

Morning. 8.7c/8.1c/14mph/SW.   Damp and dreich about sums it up really.   Don't know about anyone else, but I am completely dizzy viewing the models!   Even at this stage of proceedings, we don't quite know yet what the festive weather will be.  To top it all, the GFS(P) comes out with a snow hurricane scenario for the possible storm around the 27th/28th.      Don't know what to make of this model really, to me it's like the old GFS on steroids.   Predictions are always extreme.   Think I will just keep an eye on the TV weather!

[NUT]

The only good thing about today I suppose that it's not a cold rain (thankfully) but other than that it's horrible out there

[Hairy Celt]

Nice to see the Highlands has more snow than the Alps so far this season 

 

 

More freakin rain too.  Guess what the weather is this morning? Yes, more freakin rain. Looks like the rivers are well up with plenty of snow melt.

 

Middle aged cats have rediscovered their youth this morning by 'helping' with xmas decorations. One had a tree light bulb go pop in its mouth :smiliz57:

Edited December 21, 2014 by Hairy Celt

[Hawesy]

Breezy, mild but dry here back in NE Fife after an overnight in Embra. 10.2c with a strong west southwesterly wind. Again, we've avoided much of the rain, only 25mm here this month compared to over 150mm in places in the north and west of Scotland.

[gsteruk]

Crappy rain and very windy. Jeez not another Christmas of this rubbish surely!

[November13]

I have been patient this year. But winter so far has been rubbish. I have had one day of proper lying snow and very few hard frosts. I hope January means winter can start.

[NUT]

Horrendous with the rain right now. Not cold though

[Cheggers]

What a foul day it is oot there. Still drying off from walking the dug this morning.

[101_North]

Awful out there!

Edited December 21, 2014 by 101_North

[Colsuth]

I have been patient this year. But winter so far has been rubbish. I have had one day of proper lying snow and very few hard frosts. I hope January means winter can start.[

Your lucky . We've had no lying snow. Best we've had is a heavy sleet shower.

[Northernlights]

Foul day here to with rain all day.Temperature up to 9c at one point but back at 7c now.  Fields resemble lakes even here at the top of the hill. Oh for a nice frosty day to start drying all this water up.

[NUT]

Must be getting pretty saturated out there now. Been relentless heavy rain last few hours

[lorenzo]

Minging !

 

Drookit evening, already sweeping deluges of rain away.. not pleasant. LS had the right idea disappearing to Switzerland. As the model thread is very busy, btw, don't be scared or put off posting in there. It's not a barrier on the site, just say what you see and go for it.

 

Unfortunately nothing certain for the week ahead, still pretty amazing model spread and confusion, things are ebbing and flowing very quickly from one run to the next, the slight temp dip on Xmas day is one of the only certainties and even this is getting mixed up via fax forecasts at present.

 

Some excitement still on offer where pro Mets. on twitter 1-2 days ago called  Green Xmas, such is the uncertainty.

 

We have the upper vortex crashing around our locale, that's a given, however the translation to weather at the surface is the most perturbed where we have pulses of vortex energy moving ( think remnant vortex section that gave us the westerly ( stratospheric stingjet ) a couple of years back.

 

Right now, the vortex is in trouble and it's not a case of 'normally' it does this and a zonal default occurs, right now it's moving from being bang on Iceland - West a bit then traversing back to Greenland towards Svaalbard, all within 10-15 days. Whilst it does this it leaves a wake and trop. modelling carnage ensues.

 

Slack UK HP in the area for Xmas day drops the temps, and then uproar with a variety of speeds of evolution for the LP system tracking in over the weekend, need another 24 - 48 hrs to nail this one as it bounces up and across the UK, deepening down the east coast everything seemingly set in track until tonights 12z ECM hauled on the brakes. Still time to watch this get nailded.

 

For colder synoptics the GFS ( P) and JMA continue to tempt however we really are in a state of flux for where things are heading after this weekend.

 

 

[edo]

Yup my white Xmas bet not looking great....could do with a little trough appearing on the fax right over Inverness....still its gonna be very frosty which is 2nd best too snow on ground

[lorenzo]

Tonight parallel wants to slam the northerly

 

Not a million miles from where the ECM will have us at 00z

 

This isn't exactly the epic fail things are made out to be...

 

[Hairy Celt]

Yup my white Xmas bet not looking great....could do with a little trough appearing on the fax right over Inverness....still its gonna be very frosty which is 2nd best too snow on ground

 

Go baby trough, go... You can blame me because a few days ago I made the mistake of suggesting to a couple of folk that we were in with a shout for a white Xmas. Jinxed it of course, especially with Inverness airport being just across the firth from here.

 

Certainly the GFS ensembles have been showing what Lorenzo says, with the scatter of most plots going haywire after about the 27th, and have been doing so for the last while. Some further solutions give us mild, some give us cold, with everything in between.

[NUT]

8 hours and it's still teaming down

[Guest]

8 hours and it's still teaming down

 

Still going strong several hours later NUT. I think the front is trailing a little...

 

 

I think this chart sums up the model confusion quite nicely, the ECM and GFS have rather different outcomes for their 500hpa mean heights at 8 to 10 days away. This from yesterday's 00z:

 

 

Even to an untrained eye (mine included) it is obvious that the models are "struggling" (what a clunky description!) 

 

Edit: This morning's ECM looks bizarre, the post Xmas low develops to the north of Scotland and then the low plunges south. It's hard to tell with the 24 hour jump between frames on Metociel but the centre of the low looks as if it has gone down the Irish Sea.

Edited December 22, 2014 by CatchMyDrift