Scotland - Weather Chat

[Ravelin]

What can possibly go wrong?

 

We could all be sat at our windows, sledges polished, gloves and hats at the ready, kids bouncing off the walls in excitement cos daddy/mummy said it's going to snow and.........nothing!

 

As I said though weeks ago in the "First widespread snowfall" thread. Odds on for a blizzard on Boxing Day when we have to drive down to Glasgow for our flight to France early on 27th.

[Guest]

We could all be sat at our windows, sledges polished, gloves and hats at the ready, kids bouncing off the walls in excitement cos daddy/mummy said it's going to snow and.........nothing!

 

As I said though weeks ago in the "First widespread snowfall" thread. Odds on for a blizzard on Boxing Day when we have to drive down to Glasgow for our flight to France early on 27th.

 

We'll wave on the way past you, as we'll be heading past the airport in the opposite direction on the way back home from Kilmacolm on Boxing Day. Sounds good to me, the Boxing Day Blizzard of 2014.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hilariously for a cold spell that's still in the early bit of FI people on the MT are getting worried about the breakdown 

The GFS (P) would give us a major snowstorm on the 27th as a weak low runs up against cold air over the continent, bringing masses of frontal snow followed by an easterly:

  

 

The next low tries to make inroads eastwards but disrupts southeastwards, reinforcing the block. Easy to see where the pattern would head from here:

Most of the runs have pretty significant white Christmas potential, with the 6Z developing a wave in the northerly flow which helps bring snow to the west:

ECM has serious Boxing Day blizzard potential as well, with a deep low over central England and some seriously cold air coming in behind:

 

Details are bound to change but the weather is certainly looking a lot more festive for the Christmas period than it did this time last year.

[username home]

brilliant forecast

supposed to be driving up from london to glasgow to visit the wife's family on the 27th

not going to take any chances with 3 kids aged 0-5 in the car so could well be avoiding the xmas session with the outlaws. yeeha!

[Northernlights]

Not as mild today as I thought it would be with  frozen /snow ice hanging on in shaded areas with  a  slight ground frost in the early morning as skies cleared. Currently 6.5c

 

 " Its waiting for more" is a  phrase I heard as a child from my elders!!

[Marty G]

Hey... Breaking news... Santa seen the latest Charts for Xmas...

 

Santa fined for climbing 'cone-top' Wellington statue in Glasgow

A man dressed in a Santa suit has been fined for climbing up Glasgow's cone-topped Wellington statue.

Police said the 51-year-old had been given a fixed-penalty ticket following the stunt at the iconic statue in Royal Exchange Square.

He scaled the statue and waved to passers-by, until fire crews arrivedwith a ladder and took him down.

The Santa was last seen entering a police van as the gathered crowd shouted: "Free Santa".

A police spokeswoman was keen to stress the man who was fined was not the real Santa. However, the man was not named by police.....

 

Seemed he decided to tell passers by of the `Cold Spell`,,,, lol

[A Winter's Tale]

Very encouraging signs and trends occurring in the models regarding the festive period. It's still too early to be confident or get our hopes up as details will most certainly change but it looks like we could see the ideal switch to proper winter weather - after a season which hasn't been all that inspiring on snow front - just in time for the festive period between Christmas and New Year. Even without spectacular deep, prolonged cold weather, to me this is an example of classic, traditional, desirable or perfect Christmas weather to have proper winter conditions arriving in time and exclusive for the festive period. But it is still too early to get hung up on detail and it could turn out to be a transitional messy period, but looking at the models I see shades of 2000. It does seem the cold is going to dominate over the mild weather I feared which makes for a change from recent years where mild weather persisted through the latter part of December and into the New Year. The models will make fascinating viewing to see how the details unfold, but also there is still a possibility a pretty notable or prolonged cold spell could evolve Into the New Year. When you come to think of it, the Christmas period seems to always have a marked change in the weather.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Not many better winter charts in the archive than this:

  

or this:

 

 

Some proper snow for Christmas night via a cold front and some proper cold for Boxing Day:

An absolutely classic setup for this part of the world, and we know that once heights are established over Greenland it can be difficult to shift them. Let's hope the ECM follows suit...

[Bullseye]

Looks alright I guess could be better haha! Interesting that the 78/79, 62/63 and 76/77(?) and even 2009/10 winters all got going just after Christmas (minus 09/10 which was few days before) and all had pretty negative OPI figures of 1.8 or lower and all had GL high. Though 1984/85 winter started mainly 1st week of Jan and the 1985/86 winter look liked was proper cold around Christmas but don't think Greenland High was in place , i may be reading charts wrong so apologies for any of this if off on wrong foot. Only fear now is things may get downgraded and hell was break lose especially in particular topic on here ha! I took the negative OPI from OPI topic itself and didn't notice OPI went far back as 62/63?

Edited December 17, 2014 by Bullseye

[Guest]

 Let's hope the ECM follows suit...

 

The ECM's going to slam dunk it. There is no danger of anything going wrong at all with this cold spell, until tomorrow when it all falls apart. We need at least one utter "OMG have you seen that ECM" run.

 

Edit: Maybe we should all try some reverse-reverse-psychology. Instead of trying to not jinx it by not telling anyone, or buying any snow related equipment, we should all run around telling everyone that snowmageddon is coming and make sure we buy up all the snow shovels, de-icer and sledges we can find. I think this year a different strategy is needed, I'm still paying off my fines from last year for all those animal sacrifices.

Edited December 17, 2014 by CatchMyDrift

[NorthernRab]

Thank God, a potential frigid northerly - it's been a while!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Looks alright I guess could be better haha! Interesting that the 78/79, 62/63 and 76/77(?) and even 2009/10 winters all got going just after Christmas (minus 09/10 which was few days before) and all had pretty negative OPI figures of 1.8 or lower and all had GL high. Though 1984/85 winter started mainly 1st week of Jan and the 1985/86 winter look liked was proper cold around Christmas but don't think Greenland High was in place , i may be reading charts wrong so apologies for any of this if off on wrong foot. Only fear now is things may get downgraded and hell was break lose especially in particular topic on here ha! I took the negative OPI from OPI topic itself and didn't notice OPI went far back as 62/63?

Jeez, some folk are never satisfied   Early days though, I remember before the big 09/10 cold spell hit many people were worried about it being too dry, but of course it ended up as a very prolonged and memorable spell of cold and snow, and nearly the snowiest winter of 2010

You're definitely along the right lines there, although I reckon the 62/63 value must just be the AO since the OPI doesn't go back that far. 6 out of the 7 sub -1.5 OPI Januaries were below average for Scotland, with the warmest of those 6 averaging 1.3C, while the only above average January was 2013, which was still quite a wintry month, so a transition to a deep cold spell now would certainly make sense.

[balmaha]

. Odds on for a blizzard on Boxing Day when we have to drive down to Glasgow for our flight to France early on 27th.

 Thank Christ ye wurnae flyin the day Ravelin.

 

Glesga airports been shut the past 8 hours due tae a suspicous car being found.

 

Apparently it had tax insurance and the radio wis still in it  

[Guest]

 Thank Christ ye wurnae flyin the day Ravelin.

 

Glesga airports been shut the past 8 hours due tae a suspicous car being found.

 

Apparently it had tax insurance and the radio wis still in it  

 

Aye you need to be careful of that kind of nonsense when you go to Paisley

[A Winter's Tale]

Not many better winter charts in the archive than this:

  

or this:

 

 

Some proper snow for Christmas night via a cold front and some proper cold for Boxing Day:

An absolutely classic setup for this part of the world, and we know that once heights are established over Greenland it can be difficult to shift them. Let's hope the ECM follows suit...

The potential is really exciting, synoptically the best since March 2013 but in terms of cold and snow potential this could the best in 4 years with some similarities to the building blocks of the major cold spells of 09/10 and 10/11.

I can't say I understand a lot of meteorological science but during previous weeks and months there have been various factors (such as WAA into northern latitudes, SAI, disrupted PV in autumn) which I presume would subsequently have feedback effects on/throughout the atmosphere/troposphere and perhaps what we're seeing just now could be a result of events during recent weeks. It will be interesting to see where this leads us to, as through past experience, when blocking and WAA extends northwards into Greenland, it is a pattern that can last for quite some time. There has been great consistency and momentum during the past 48hrs and I'm hoping this continues and develops into something pretty special. Many of the great winters get underway around the festive period, so there is the potential we could see a somewhat premature notable cold spell before a possible SSW in the New Year.

[keithlucky]

Accu weather for snow for Edinburgh xmas day a close call

Edited December 17, 2014 by keithlucky

[mistyqueen]

Nice charts, but I see that the north west and Skye look like they'll miss out on ant snow event on the bog day. Metcheck says cold maybe sleety, XC says white stuff. I'm not building my hopes up ( as usual! ), but there is a week to go and a lot can happen in that time. So, not polishing up my sledge yet.......

[skifreak]

We're on Page 63 - maybe it's an omen? 

[SMU]

Looking great for Scotland for the festive period !! good luck all-

 

Ive punted a fair bit on a white Xmas for inverness & Glasgow so Im routing for it as well!!!

[edo]

Yup I'm on Inverness too....now if models could bring everything forward 24hrs I'd be punting on some more towns

[Polar Side]

Looking great for Scotland for the festive period !! good luck all-

 

Ive punted a fair bit on a white Xmas for inverness & Glasgow so Im routing for it as well!!!

I punted on Aberdeen and Edinburgh last week but it looks like I'll need the flow to back more towards North East which doesn't look like happening (just yet) !!

[LomondSnowstorm]

I punted on Aberdeen and Edinburgh last week but it looks like I'll need the flow to back more towards North East which doesn't look like happening (just yet) !!

The bookies would have to pay out a lot (and you'd all be quids in) if the 18Z para came off:

[edo]

So will we punt on Dundee at 5/2 Ls hmmmm

More runs needed

[Guest]

It's reached the point of looking away from the charts for a couple of days, unless you enjoy the rollercoaster ride. We're almost in range of the UKMO picking up Xmas, so far so good but expect some wobbles from somewhere. Pick of the charts this morning is this from the GFS Parallel, it is fairly unusual to see most of Scotland covered by pink like this for midnight on Boxing Day:

 

 

 

[Hawesy]

Morning all,

Mild this morning at 9c under cloudy skies.

Nicely put, Catch, let's see the general theme of a cold spell between Christmas and New Year continue on the model runs and we can worry about the detail next week. GFS 12z Op run delays the real cold compared to the same run yesterday although the depth of cold is actually greater here (down to -11c 850s/ 511 dam) by a week on Saturday. Far from nailed on yet but still looking promising!