Scotland - Weather Chat

[GulberwickWeather]

Just had a seriously heavy snow shower here and about 1cm of lying snow. Meto Yellow alert out for between 2-5cms this evening.

[A Winter's Tale]

Looking at the models, nothing to spectacular is on the horizon but there should be a few opportunities for snow in the foreseeable future but nevertheless it looks like a pretty seasonal start to the month. I suspect this month will come in just either side of average temperature wise with no real prevailing weather pattern for the first half of the month with our weather strongly influence mid-latitude heights. I think eventually, later this month we'll see more pronounced periods of mild/wet/windy and cold/frosty/snowy as pressure patterns alternate so before Christmas we could see a sudden switch to mild muck as we did in 2011 and 2012 or a change to a colder pattern as we did in late December 2000, all depending on where areas of high pressure end up so the second half of the month is up in the air. At the moment, I think in a couple of weeks time we'll end up with more active Atlantic driven conditions, but by the very end of the month the jet may take a dive South as a precursor to a more significant period of winter weather occurring sometime after the new year.

https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/347/entry-4848-awts-winter-forecast-20142015/

So we're halfway through the first month of the winter. My assessment is in general it hasn been particularly memorable or spectacular (other than the excitement of the 'weather bomb') but nor has it been a complete right off. It's been a very traditional, seasonal beginning to winter with short mild blips, some cooler intervals and a mix of Atlantic fronts and wintry showers during two weeks of changeable weather which is set to continue.

This month has really turned out as expected following an autumn which didn't really feel like a proper transition from summer into winter before the switch to seasonal conditions this month, and the negative OPI value seemed to correlate with pretty average or mike Decembers followed by colder conditions prevailing after the New Year. My thoughts and forecast at the start of the month seem a fair summary of the month so far and what could be around the corner.

We seem to be at a pivotal moment in getting a clearer picture/determining the nature of the weather patterns in the latter half if the month. A change looks upon us, whether it's a subtle change in emphasis of pressure patterns/temperature or a more significant and abrupt pattern change and it's very normal to experience such shifts/switches during this time if year. At the start of the month, I felt (or feared) that high pressure becoming more prominent to our South may see a more pronounced period of milder weather before Christmas (which we have seen many times before such as 2011 and 2012) but suspected the wider picture may be mobile and progressive enough to see a sudden colder end to the year and precursor to the sort of weather we may see in the new year - (December 2000 offered a memorable cold and snowy spell between Christmas and New Year out of nowhere and a similar negative OPI year in 2009 also had a stunning shift to cold and snow following an unremarkable autumn and first half of a December for wintry prospects).

The models make particularly interesting viewing with The conditions for Christmas Day being on a knife edge. It looks like before Christmas we could experience mild, Atlantic driven conditions influenced by high pressure to the South and around Christmas looks like a potential switch to colder weather. It looks like we'll see a mild/cold period of some sorts during the final weeks of the year but nature of the weather conditions we might experience will only begin to unfold during this week. If it does turn colder, I don't expect anything on the scale of 2009 just yet but I'm hoping for something like a repeat of 2000, but even if it remains mild or continues to be changeable then there's still a chance of having a brief cold or wintry incursion in time for Christmas as we saw in 2004.

Edited December 15, 2014 by A Winter's Tale

[NorthernRab]

Those guys are doing well to keep that open. Is there still a sign at the bottom saying something like 'road normally impassable in wintry conditions'?

Yep, they warn inexperienced drivers to take the long road to Applecross!

[strathearn snow]

00Z EC joins the Xmas party with a chilly NW'ly for Xmas Day - wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.… - Increasing confidence now for Xmas not to be mild

7:00am - 16 Dec 14

[mistyqueen]

Morning Folks! Dry and calm here, 5c, pressure 1013. Another nice day in prospect, more like this would be just fine!

[Big Innes Madori]

Forth 1 saying this morning that the Bookies have cut the odds for an Edinburgh White Christmas to 2/1

Mmm

Big Innes

[Guest]

00Z EC joins the Xmas party with a chilly NW'ly for Xmas Day - wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.… - Increasing confidence now for Xmas not to be mild

7:00am - 16 Dec 14

 

Indeed StrathearnSnow Latest charts are pretty exciting for around Xmas time, I actually feel a full scale ramp coming on. ECM has a fairly major snowstorm for Xmas Eve for upland areas of the west.

[cscrim]

Forth 1 saying this morning that the Bookies have cut the odds for an Edinburgh White Christmas to 2/1MmmBig Innes

Latest odds for white Christmas

Aberdeen 7/4

Edinburgh 12/5

Glasgow 2/1

Keeping my eye on oddschecker in next day or so.

[101_North]

Nice day. Cold, blue sky, light wind, frost still on the ground in shaded parts. What's not to like?

 

No point typing it all again :-)

[Ravelin]

Time for it all to change but the models this morning are certainly looking more 'interesting' in a week or so onwards.

 

Well the temperature climbed up to just over 3C by the time I went to bed last night but was back down to 1.3C when I got up again. No frost on the car but the shaded grass in the back garden showed signs of frost/being pretty frozen. Blue skies and sun in Dyce at the moment but probably feeling cold in a decent breeze.

[NUT]

Some high cloud drifting in now although still sunny. Let's get the mild blip out the way

[NorthernRab]

Just 2'C 'max' here today before the warm up tonight. Been much the same for the last few days here with frequent sleet, snow, cold rain and gusty winds - occasional covering of snow, lots of ice around in sheltered spots.

Interesting weather to come though, that's for sure, with one or two surprises no doubt!

[November13]

Rumours circulating that between Christmas day, and until new year .We could be looking at widespread snow! Thankfully tomorrows crazy mild spell is the last one for a while!

[Hairy Celt]

Rumours circulating that between Christmas day, and until new year .We could be looking at widespread snow! Thankfully tomorrows crazy mild spell is the last one for a while!

 

GFS is certainly 'flirting with the idea of' (ie it's crap that far out and just makes up some random 541t) snow for later next week. 

 

Time to get a bit excited...

 

Edited December 16, 2014 by Hairy Celt

[Northernlights]

Nice calm bright day here with still a lot of ice/frozen snow in the sheltered areas.Took advantage of the calm day to barrow over beech logs this afternoon for the Xmas period .House now well stacked up along with coal.    Not a good job on a wet windy day    Currently 1c and the wind is begining to increase

[BurntFishTrousers]

We due snaw the night? It's cold enough currently and grey 

[November13]

Snow confined to hills before full hairdryer after midnight and then rain. Might get a wee bit above 600ft but that would be temporary!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Snow confined to hills before full hairdryer after midnight and then rain. Might get a wee bit above 600ft but that would be temporary!

 

Yep, this is the uppers profile for when the main band moves in:

 

Next shot at anything to lower levels looks like Friday evening, although speculative at this range:

 

Not overly low uppers or ground temperatures but a bit of interest all the same:

 

 

Potential for a white Christmas too, although not that much precipitation about after the winds turn more northerly (as you'd expect):

   

 

More interesting is the low to the south that interacts with our system, potentially bringing frontal snowfall from the south/giving an easterly flow to its north:

 

GFS proper has something similar, slightly better ridging to Greenland meaning a better block with more long lasting cold potential but marginally too far west, giving an irritating west-based NAO (could easily end up like that but we've seen northerlies modelled too far west a few times before, moreso than with easterlies which often end up correcting westwards):

 

 

 

Either way some genuine cold in play for the first time this winter and it wouldn't take much tweaking to the pattern to upgrade what could be a notable cold snap to a very substantial cold spell into the New Year...

Edited December 16, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[Allyw12]

Whats this snow at christmas? but our local weather guru is going for a mild Christmas

[LomondSnowstorm]

Whats this snow at christmas? but our local weather guru is going for a mild Christmas

I thought he might've had some sort of inside information but looking at it it seems he just looked at the 6Z normal GFS:

If that is genuinely how he comes up with his longer range pronouncements then I suspect the 'Windy model' might come onboard with a white christmas later on:

[November13]

Was out running Baltic raw wind. Then the rain came! Snow on Drummochter web cam is awesome.Pity its all for nothing.

[Polar Gael]

1.6C/(DP)2C and cauld rain here now.

This evening's GPS twins are definitely teasing with some tasty looking cauld stuff from Christmas onwards.

Tiny step in the right direction.

[101_North]

Turning milder and just starting to rain. I wonder will tonights mild finally see off the remainder of the kids snowmen from last Thursday? They've done well - both are headless and a little thin but the arms are still in and one of them still sports it's scarf :-)

[edo]

The windy model lol.....that's selling hoodies and salt and perhaps reading the wrong commentator in the model thread

To be fair he has the masses interested in weather so I applaud that... Hammering it down here but plenty of interest around the corner

[LomondSnowstorm]

Contrary to twitter the ECM ENS looks pretty decent for the Christmas period, maybe around a 50% chance of a technical white Christmas for most of us and certainly a good chance of seeing at least a flake or two at some point between Christmas Eve and Boxing Day:

 Ch

ECM op isn't so great for the day itself, although still cold enough before and after:

  

And you could possibly sneak in some post-Christmas dinner wintriness anyway:

Edited December 16, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm