Northwest England - Weather Chat

[cheshire snow]

GFS P deepens the LP system on the 27th, wind chill of -8

Accross the region, combined with high winds and snow

Blizzards possible on this run and not restricted to high ground

Either

C.S

[Mokidugway]

That's going to put pay to my hike in lakes on that day .....

[itsnowjoke]

That's going to put pay to my hike in lakes on that day .....

the 27th you say that's my sons birthday he wont be happy with that trying to spend his money in gale force blizzards

[Mokidugway]

the 27th you say that's my sons birthday he wont be happy with that trying to spend his money in gale force blizzards

lol ,might have to be a gin day !!!..

[itsnowjoke]

lol ,might have to be a gin day !!!..

mother's ruin

[chris78]

latest model output sounds generally downbeat for most of the UK (assuming your a coldie), but I heard some magic words* in the model thread,  North Westerly and Irish Sea Streamer.....could someone more knowledgeable offer an opinion?

 

*magic words if you live in the snow starved west of the region, perhaps the only ways to get snow here?

[Mokidugway]

Conditions have to be perfect to catch that ilusive beast !!.........

[cheshire snow]

latest model output sounds generally downbeat for most of the UK (assuming your a coldie), but I heard some magic words* in the model thread,  North Westerly and Irish Sea Streamer.....could someone more knowledgeable offer an opinion?

 

*magic words if you live in the snow starved west of the region, perhaps the only ways to get snow here?

Well for Xmas day the mo have changed there forecast from

A dry day, to now forecasting showers, so maybe a white one

for some,I think the irish sea streamer post was in response

to about the 28th with a cold NNW setting in with -9 850s

obviously went un noticed in the mad thread....

C.S

[iand61]

Well for Xmas day the mo have changed there forecast from

A dry day, to now forecasting showers, so maybe a white one

for some,I think the irish sea streamer post was in response

to about the 28th with a cold NNW setting in with -9 850s

obviously went un noticed in the mad thread....

C.S

Would be happy with a cold NW set up although a more westerly element is needed to push the showers across to my part of the Pennines.

NNW and for much of the region it becomes a case of watching in envy as the snow heads into North Wales.

[Mokidugway]

Probably because it wouldn't affect the South East !!!...

[itsnowjoke]

Wow its windy here...and I avnt had sprouts

[iand61]

Probably because it wouldn't affect the South East !!!...

If the mod thread is to be believed then non of us are going to see much wintry ness over the next couple of weeks.

I seldom post in there as my knowledge of model reading is quite limited but I also don't usually get sucked into the hype which comes from a set of charts giving a chance of sleet at 300 hours, especially when this usually turns into wrist slashing at 96 hours.

It does surprise me how many do though and some of the posts regarding the nailed on winters spell were bordering on Express headline stuff and it's no wonder that when the inevitable downgrade happens, the recriminations start.

[J10]

Well for Xmas day the mo have changed there forecast from

A dry day, to now forecasting showers, so maybe a white one

for some,I think the irish sea streamer post was in response

to about the 28th with a cold NNW setting in with -9 850s

obviously went un noticed in the mad thread....

C.S

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82046-model-output-discussion-the-run-in-to-christmas/?p=3093812

 

As we all are,

 

Some decent runs this evening for a NNW flow and 850HPA temps of around -8 to -9c

 

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162-7PUK.GIF

 

Still very much a possibility of snow streamers on thees charts.

 

Deal.

 

Plenty can go wrong of course and normally does.

 

Based on the GFS (P) runs earlier.

 

probably won't come off but the MOD thread has swung from being too positive to to negative.

Edited December 21, 2014 by J10

[Mokidugway]

If the mod thread is to be believed then non of us are going to see much wintry ness over the next couple of weeks.

I seldom post in there as my knowledge of model reading is quite limited but I also don't usually get sucked into the hype which comes from a set of charts giving a chance of sleet at 300 hours, especially when this usually turns into wrist slashing at 96 hours.

It does surprise me how many do though and some of the posts regarding the nailed on winters spell were bordering on Express headline stuff and it's no wonder that when the inevitable downgrade happens, the recriminations start.

I tend to avoid the mad thread for much the same reasons,better spending my time building a cardboard warp drive !!.....

[itsnowjoke]

If the mod thread is to be believed then non of us are going to see much wintry ness over the next couple of weeks.

I seldom post in there as my knowledge of model reading is quite limited but I also don't usually get sucked into the hype which comes from a set of charts giving a chance of sleet at 300 hours, especially when this usually turns into wrist slashing at 96 hours.

It does surprise me how many do though and some of the posts regarding the nailed on winters spell were bordering on Express headline stuff and it's no wonder that when the inevitable downgrade happens, the recriminations start.

I love snow but at Christmas can be inconvenient as I have my elderly mum who is not in walking distance and she can't possibly walk in snow so if it was to snow she wouldn't beable to come for Christmas dinner.

[iand61]

In Manchester (again) this afternoon and it felt quite mild.

I was going to say not like Christmas but this is what Christmas weather usually is like in the UK so although we dream of better, the honest expectation is usually much less.

[Weather-history]

Funny enough I have seen more snow on Christmas Day since 2000 than I have rain.

Not had a really wet Christmas here for years. 1990 was the last really wet Christmas.

1991 was dry

1992 was dry

1993 had wet snow

1994 had a bit of rain

1995 was dry

1996 was dry

1997 was largely dry, the rainband actually split into two as it passed over southern NW England

1998: some rain

1999: wintry showers

2000: snow showers

2001: dry

2002: a few showers

2003: dry

2004: snow showers

2005: dry

2006: dry

2007: dry

2008: dry

2009: bit of rain in late evening

2010: dry

2011: dry

2012: some showers

2013: some showers.

1987, 1988 and 1989 were all dry as well.

A washout Christmas has been even rarer than a white one!

[Mokidugway]

In between trying to improve humanity's existence with cardboard devices ,I'm looking for a holiday in the Canary Islands ,need to get away from this murky weather !!....

[iand61]

In between trying to improve humanity's existence with cardboard devices ,I'm looking for a holiday in the Canary Islands ,need to get away from this murky weather !!....

Could manage a holiday in the sun myself although no doubt I'd be away when at home gets it's only severe winter spell.

[Mark.C]

Could manage a holiday in the sun myself although no doubt I'd be away when at home gets it's only severe winter spell.

Then it'll be sods law you cant get back into the UK because the airports have all closed due to the snow depth, ha!

[Thunder Snow]

Will have to watch this front coming in from Scotland, may bring abit of flooding?

[iand61]

Then it'll be sods law you cant get back into the UK because the airports have all closed due to the snow depth, ha!

I remember watching the news showing snow at Manchester airport just before Christmas 2009 when we were on a Canaries Cruise.

Got really envious of everyone back home having heavy snow whilst I was in warm sunshine.

Thankfully the envy soon changed to oh lucky me and sod the snow as I went for another beer and sat outside again.

Yes I love the snow but I also love the sun on my back and IMHO winter is the best time for a holiday in the sun.

[Mokidugway]

I remember 2006 I think being on Tenerife in January with reports of heavy snow at home ,so me and moqui girl went up teide snow hunting ,from beach to snow then back to beach ,magic ...

[iand61]

Will have to watch this front coming in from Scotland, may bring abit of flooding?

Met Office have a warning out for heavy rain for Cumbria down across the the Pennines although down here it's restricted to West Yorkshire with this region outside of the yellow area.

That said though with the amount of rain we've had over the past week or so it wouldn't take much more to cause possible issues with flooding and the rivers draining east from the Pennines are often more responsive to rapid rise than those on this side.

[Thunder Snow]

Just reading through the Scotland flood watches and warning and in every warning the rivers have rose really fast. Definitely one to watch. Currently pouring down and gusty