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Paul

Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat

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So what is the opinions/verdict in here for next weeks weather. Ive read a few of the other pages and Im still confused, haha

 

Well..

 

ECM/UKMO would give us some back edge snowfall as the system moves Southwards, probably little accumulation away from higher ground.

 

More interestingly though, a window of Easterly winds could bring snow showers during Monday before high pressure cuts off the flow. But given we still haven't got the track of the low pressure system nailed down this really is just speculation.

 

The GFS would give us mostly rain, perhaps some sleet on the back edge if we're lucky.

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FAX charts

Tomorrow

PPVE89.gif?31415

Moderate west/north west flow

Looks dry and sunny

Temperatures

nmmuk-0-24-0.png?23-18

6-8C

 

Christmas day

PPVI89.gif?31415

Gentle north/north westerly flow

looks like a band of showers will move south, possibly wintry

Temperatures

nmmuk-0-49-0.png?23-18

5-7C

 

Boxing day

PPVK89.gif?31415

Light west/south westerly flow

Looks dry and sunny again for most of the day. There will be fog and ice to start the day.

Temperatures - 3-6C (colder in places where fog sticks)

 

Leaving it for now, will update the rest later, a lot of interest beyond this point. Watch out for a hard frost on the morning of Boxing day.

Edited by Captain shortwave

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Well..

 

ECM/UKMO would give us some back edge snowfall as the system moves Southwards, probably little accumulation away from higher ground.

 

More interestingly though, a window of Easterly winds could bring snow showers during Monday before high pressure cuts off the flow. But given we still haven't got the track of the low pressure system nailed down this really is just speculation.

 

The GFS would give us mostly rain, perhaps some sleet on the back edge if we're lucky.

I see, so something to work with then mate. I appreciate the reply thanks  :)

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Interesting that the BBC Look East weather just showed sleet on Saturday night......

Hi there, there's a possibility of some back edge snow depending on the track of the low if it treads down the North Sea into France, the PPN associated with it to the western/northern flank once engaging with the colder air *might* turn to snow - at this stage SE/EA is looking rather reasonable for a touch of winter. :)

post-19153-0-84323800-1419362476.jpg

Maybe I have had too much mulled wine but I think there is a good chance of a Thames streamer on Sunday, winds are forecast to be E/NE and that is perfect conditions for a Thames streamer when you combine it with -8 uppers

^ Yes please what are your thoughts? bear in mind this is 5 to 6 days away are conditions favourable?

Not quite the best update from fergie find out more here: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82079-model-output-discussion-the-final-stretch-to-christmas/page-37#entry3095614

Edited by Daniel*

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Got a bit damp on the walk back from shopping this evening, nothing major but some big fat spots of rain being pushed along on the strong breeze.

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GFS and the parallel now join the rest of the models in the low sinking south east with 850s of -6 to -8C cutting into the backedge of that front, so a possible snow event for many, though how heavy the precipitation is will be up for debate.

gfs-2-114.png?18

The GFS in fact develops a shallow disturbance shown here

gfs-0-126.png?18

138-7UK.GIF?23-18

Possible for some heavy showers to push into our region from the north sea  :w00t:

Edited by Captain shortwave

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I personally reckon the first bite of the cherry may provide some white stuff, but we'll need a second bite for something more sustained, I'm going for an easterly scenario - with +ve establishing over Scandinavia.

The METO should hire me that's all I can say. (slight sarcasm)

post-19153-0-87858500-1419373881_thumb.jpost-19153-0-91563500-1419373914.jpg

Lovely Jubbly :w00t:

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Considering the amount of changes we've seen from the models in the past few days, I would advise everyone to use some caution before we get excited! However, it's good to see the models showing it. 

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Saturday

PPVM89.png

Strong cyclonic flow - North west becoming north or north east later.

Rain at times on and off all day really. 

Temperatures - 6-8C

 

Sunday

PPVO89.png

Fresh east to north east wind.

528 dam line digging into our part of the UK, certainly a chance of showers, these wintry in nature. A lot of uncertainty on how cold the flow behind this low will be. 

Temperatures - Conservative 3-5C

 

The trajectory of this low looks nailed but the exact track is uncertain. Also there is uncertainty of where the high will build in, this will have a major influence on the depth and longevity of the cold behind this low. Some very cold solutions and some which bring a surface chill but not much else.

Fingers crossed, this is definitely the best chance for cold since 2013.  :smiliz19:

Edited by Captain shortwave

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Don't think we'd see much settling snow though? Especially with rain beforehand? (I'm not normally this bah humbug)  :D

Not alot i would of thought, potentially a dusting, especially to the Hills. But would be good to see snow falling, March 2013 the last time here and for many of us in this thread! 

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Have to say that I was hoping any snow would be delayed until after the weekend as we have a family event which means we will be driving from Croydon to Cheltenham and back in the same day - anyone have a clue if we are going to have issues with this - I have seen so many varying comments the last few days from model to model that I am totally confused.

Thanks.

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It is pretty wild outside at the moment. The wind has picked up and there is some rain! Just saw the weather and there is still a lot of uncertainty about the weekend. It will be stormy but the track of the low is still causing a headache, it could still bring us our first spell of snow of the winter! :w00t: :cold: :cold:

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Still no mention of snow for our region from the metoffice! Think we will get rain at the weekend after that we will have a sunny but cold week with night frosts! no snow in sight!

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Still rather damp and grey here this morning. 

This coming weekend, the high looks like building rapidly in and as mentioned by Ian F last night the precipitation weakens as it crosses south east through the UK. So I guess the chances of disruptive conditions are unlikely, that said I think there could be some snowfall this coming weekend, either from some light back edge snow to a few wintry showers which blow onto north sea coasts. I posted in the model discussion thread which explains how the models are still unsure on the positioning of this high and hence the uncertainty in how cold it will get and potential snow further down the line. This is especially true for our part of the UK as slight differences in positioning of the high can mean around a 10C difference in the 850 temperatures over our part of the UK.

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Not going to add to the weather discussion as I don't know my proverbial ar55 from my elbow, but just like to wish everyone on these boards an extremely messy Christmas and a prosperous new year.

Thank you all for the past year.

Enjoy.

Edited by Bogman

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Snowfall- will it or won't it? Sundays my last day off work would be nice to top it off with dusting off the sledge which is currently gathering cobwebs by heading off to the downs;-)

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Me too CS.. I'm looking forward to frozen days and light snow blowing in the wind :smiliz39:

It's been a long time since a proper freeze.. Hopefully there are no downgrades..

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If the GFS P was to verify, from T138-T168, it has snow showers running in from the East.......maybe a potential streamer.

But a long way off I know

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Me too CS.. I'm looking forward to frozen days and light snow blowing in the wind :smiliz39:

It's been a long time since a proper freeze.. Hopefully there are no downgrades..

We might have more to contend with going by fergie's latest post, convection explosion? SSTs toasty at this time of year :whistling:

Too early to say. UKMO-GM retains strip of shear vorticity stretching into the SE behind departing low centre, which - coupled with adjacent SST - could offer snow showers for a while. But as stated before, it's the possible outcome in the north that's more compelling re snowfall 'proper'.

post-19153-0-19198800-1419423148_thumb.j

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We might have more to contend with going by fergie's latest post, convection explosion? SSTs toasty at this time of year :whistling:

Too early to say. UKMO-GM retains strip of shear vorticity stretching into the SE behind departing low centre, which - coupled with adjacent SST - could offer snow showers for a while. But as stated before, it's the possible outcome in the north that's more compelling re snowfall 'proper'.

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

That's even better.. Bring it on!! :smiliz39:

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While I get the chance I would also I would like to thank everyone on here for the there weather knowledge, reports and banter throughout the year and wish you all a very Happy Christmas and a wonderful New Year   :)  now bring on the snow please   :)  :)  :) 

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