Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond

[bluearmy]

The NOAA and GEFS D10 anomalies are quite similar (as is the ECM).

 

HP Alaska to the pole and Greenland to Scandinavia. Trough NE Canada orientated east with a weak trough SW approaches. Resulting in a surface analysis oft low pressure over the Atlantic and  average or slightly above temps for the UK

NOAA on a weekend is raw naefs so it's not a surprise to find the CPC/gefs output similar knocker!

ECM ens uppers slightly lower than average post day 8. You pays your money ..................

[chionomaniac]

The GFS is out to 144 & whilst it exhibits the usual slight eastward bias & the weak amplification of the atlantic its the very FIRST GFS run in the last 5 days that has shown 2 wave activity joining over the pole to separate the cross polar flow & a split vortex...

 

The upgrades continue.....

 

S

Very close to getting the perfect wave 2 break on this run. If that were to happen, just look at what could be unleashed....

 

And we have seen wave 2 repeats in recent years...

Edited November 9, 2014 by chionomaniac

[Cloud 10]

Just like the good old days from the pub run this evening,late for work tomorrow i think.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Haha the 18z has gone mental in FI, a 'grab your sledge' special. Well not quite, but on the cusp!

Edited November 9, 2014 by CreweCold

[Man With Beard]

The NOAA and GEFS D10 anomalies are quite similar (as is the ECM).

 

HP Alaska to the pole and Greenland to Scandinavia. Trough NE Canada orientated east with a weak trough SW approaches. Resulting in a surface analysis oft low pressure over the Atlantic and  average or slightly above temps for the UK

I know you're just reading charts but I will absolutely eat my hat if d6-d10 ends up above average going by the NOAA charts - an easterly influence in mid November?

[Polar Maritime]

GFS is starting to show much stronger signals now of some form of Easterly, More inline with ECM.

 

Lovely chart this, Still much uncertainty yet and detail is irrelevant, But things are looking up tonight for some sort of cold spell towards the end of the Month, And into the start of Winter. 

 

Edited November 9, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Mucka]

Some good FI signs on the 18z output with both the Op and the parallel run showing renewed attempts at WAA toward Greenland day 9+.

 

 

So even if we don't hit the jackpot straight off there may well be other possibilities along quite quickly, very promising signs.

[karlos1983]

Bank ðŸ˜

Nice lines coming straight up from the mid Atlantic to the west of Greenland. Gotta love a pub special.

[knocker]

I know you're just reading charts but I will absolutely eat my hat if d6-d10 ends up above average going by the NOAA charts - an easterly influence in mid November?

 

Can''t see where you get the easterly influence?

[SMU]

Very close to getting the perfect wave 2 break on this run. If that were to happen, just look at what could be unleashed....

 

And we have seen wave 2 repeats in recent years...

 

REPEAT.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014110918/gfsnh-0-384.png?18

 

The pub run is the first alignment with the ECM......

Expect more fun & games over the next few days before the next phase is agreed apon....

 

NGT

[bluearmy]

Can''t see where you get the easterly influence?

Really knocker ? Nearly all runs have the trough digging into Europe with a soueaster or easterly ahead of it. Not cold enough for any fun but it's definitely an easterly of sorts.

[Purga]

With that being the case, Purga, why bother come on a model discussion thread at all? The whole idea of this type of thread is to discuss what the models show, the differences between the models, and what they could go on to show. Otherwise we would all be happy with just watching the weather forecast every evening. 

 

Sometimes there is just as much 'eloquent popycock' from a few who are determined to write off every possible cold spell.

Chio, I'm not trying to write off every possible cold spell at all - if that's your implication? I simply can't see anything, at the moment, in the models which indicates much more than a very unsettled period of weather coming up and I'm skeptical about the abilities of any of us, indeed those far more learned than I am to be able to predict much further ahead than say 7-10 days at the very best. Much of the scientific and technical discussion on here is fascinating and very informative but nontheless, I still feel the atmosphere is far too chaotic and complex for us to be able to do more than proffer an educated guess as to what may or may not happen to our weather in 10+ days time, which is what much of the excitement seems to revolve around. There are so many factors involved but it seems there is often a 'fashionable' focus which people harp on about such as SSW or 'spilt Vortex' etc which implies that there is some special overiding importance in these that will determine the onset of a cold spell.

Anyway this is the wrong thread for all this so apologies but I needed to answer you and as I always say, if I feel there is enough consistence evidence to me in the more reliable timeframes of an impending cold spell I will surely jump on the ramping bandwagon! I respect everyones opinions and viewpoints but I just post things as I see them and fully respect those who disagree with me, they can probably teach me a lot! LOL

[LomondSnowstorm]

Can''t see where you get the easterly influence?

 

      

 

To be fair, the fetch looks pretty short, moreso the further south you go (up our way it's a bit longer but not especially cold) but definitely an easterly, albeit most likely a rather miserable one at that (for now at least).

Edited November 9, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[knocker]

Really knocker ? Nearly all runs have the trough digging into Europe with a soueaster or easterly ahead of it. Not cold enough for any fun but it's definitely an easterly of sorts.

 

Yes really blue. The post I was replying too was this.

 

 

I know you're just reading charts but I will absolutely eat my hat if d6-d10 ends up above average going by the NOAA charts - an easterly influence in mid November?

 

From the NOAA charts I would say SE veering S/SW so why wouldn't the temps be above average?

Edited November 9, 2014 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

Can''t see where you get the easterly influence?

Strong block over Scandi, troughing to the SW rather than NW? Should do for most? (Though maybe not you in Cornwall )

Edit - I find anything off the continent will be fairly cold by mid-nov, so that includes SE

Edited November 9, 2014 by rjbw

[The Eagle]

Pity such great synoptics but it looks that bit too early from a cold point of view. Let's hope the pattern can hold long enough to get the really cold air in to Scandi and to our shores. 

Edited November 9, 2014 by The Eagle

[phil nw.]

Another post has been deleted for sniping.

It's sad when we have to read 1 line digs at people and then spend time cleaning up after them.

If anyone has an issue please report or pm the member or members they have a problem with but please not here.

 

Ok  thanks, back to discussion.

[Nick F]

Very close to getting the perfect wave 2 break on this run. If that were to happen, just look at what could be unleashed....

 

And we have seen wave 2 repeats in recent years...

Certainly welcome sight to see now both waves 'pinching' hard at the Arctic cold pool on the 18z, the lobe of the polar vortex heading SW towards the Barents Sea looking a lot more organised and deeper than the lobe of the PV over eastern N America. Which is good news for the start of winter.

If wave 2 continues to amplify in the trop as the models are continually hinting at and upwell towards the stratosphere, am I right to say this could lead to one of the earliest stratospheric vortex splitting events for a good while Ed?

[knocker]

Strong block over Scandi, troughing to the SW rather than NW? Should do for most? (Though maybe not you in Cornwall )

Edit - I find anything off the continent will be fairly cold by mid-nov, so that includes SE

 

Well I'm reading it as SE veering S/SW with the low to the SW. An update from the 1534 18z. (particularly in Cornwall)

Edited November 9, 2014 by knocker

[Banbury]

GFS  Certainly sticks 2 fingers up at the sceptics on here and on TWO, certainly a great pattern emerging which creates plenty of debate . Going to be interesting to see how this winter pans out. It certainly has given us more to chat about already , last years effort was awful.

 

Be interesting to see what the OBI forecast gives us tomorrow.

[ITSY]

Certainly welcome sight to see now both waves 'pinching' hard at the Arctic cold pool on the 18z, the lobe of the polar vortex heading SW towards the Barents Sea looking a lot more organised and deeper than the lobe of the PV over eastern N America. Which is good news for the start of winter.

If wave 2 continues to amplify in the trop as the models are continually hinting at and upwell towards the stratosphere, am I right to say this could lead to one of the earliest stratospheric vortex splitting events for a good while Ed?

I think some of the cautiousness that people have is that whilst that is true and somewhat remarkable at this point, Europe is still relatively mild and any weather type that comes in off the continent and not the north or north east as a result of those changes will, at the moment, not deliver the much desired snowy Synoptics. Nonetheless I entirely agree that we have to get the pattern in place first, and the pattern emerging right now is something highly unusual and surely encouraging.

[chionomaniac]

Certainly welcome sight to see now both waves 'pinching' hard at the Arctic cold pool on the 18z, the lobe of the polar vortex heading SW towards the Barents Sea looking a lot more organised and deeper than the lobe of the PV over eastern N America. Which is good news for the start of winter.

If wave 2 continues to amplify in the trop as the models are continually hinting at and upwell towards the stratosphere, am I right to say this could lead to one of the earliest stratospheric vortex splitting events for a good while Ed?

Yes, Nick, because it would beat that of a few years ago. Ironically, I would prefer any wave 2 activity over Greenland to be a little later in the season though, but will take whatever comes our way.

[nick sussex]

Overall tonights output is what I would call in the " holding pattern" waiting to excite or conversely traumatize cold lovers!

 

What we have is a couple of courses of a Michelin starred menu, but still waiting for dessert to round things off.

 

Indeed there are some 5 star ingredients, split PV, blocking, but some issues as to how to transport some colder uppers in from the ne. So that's still the concern at present.

[Mark Neal.]

Haven't posted in this thread since last winter.. interesting to see the small steps the GFS is taking to pull more in line with ECM. Word of advice for those new, sometimes Synoptics for our shores may look wet and windy, just like the coming week with all models showing low pressure systems cutting in off the Atlantic. sW England could see flooding if the systems continue. But the bigger picture shows some impressive + Positive height anomalies in higher regions. It does seem we are nearly at a point where building blocks are coming along nicely, could be a case of a few bites at the cherry.. Some great posts in here keep it up folks!!

Look at it in a wider sense, that is a lovely sight for November when the vortex should be usually becoming more organised.

Interesting times ahead!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The NOAA and GEFS D10 anomalies are quite similar (as is the ECM).

 

HP Alaska to the pole and Greenland to Scandinavia. Trough NE Canada orientated east with a weak trough SW approaches. Resulting in a surface analysis oft low pressure over the Atlantic and  average or slightly above temps for the UK

And that Knocker is a hemispheric set up that WILL lead to cold, it is average to slightly above for a little while, if maintained the switch will come

 

BFTP