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Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond

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hi Knocker

 

Ive steered clear of your assessments, but you are posting on the whole pretty inaccurate information.

 

For example you say above average temps from 216 onwards?

Look at the 850s-

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014110812/ECU0-240.GIF?08-0

 

What I actually posted was the average surface temps over the period of the run according to GEFS, which most certainly are above average. How one chart from another model showing 850mb temps refutes that is beyond me. You accuse me of inaccurately interpreting i the anomaly charts which i also refute with the codicil that it is not a detailed professional meteorologists  interpretation as I'm not up to that.

Edited by Polar Maritime
To remove personal remarks.

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Been viewing the models with much interest in recent days, ECM has remained firm with its evolution of strong heights to our north as we move through the middle of November coupled with the stubborn trough venturing to our east. GFS has been less inclined to develop similiarly placed strong heights, but this evening the 12Z shows heights developing to our north and north west by this time next week, however, it doesnt place the trough to pur east and instead plumps for a build of heights from the south - the trough maintains its current position.

 

For the reliable timeframe its very much more of the same with the longwave trough becoming unstuck just to our west thanks to strong heights over eastern europe acting as a block, a very wet fairly mild spell with fronts thrown across the country and back again.. this isn't a fluid mobile pattern.

 

Those looking for a colder outlook want to see the trough move eastwards, if we see a strong build of heights to our northwest then this will put pressure on the trough - stretching and reorientating it, eventually splitting it with the jet taking some low heights to our east breaking up.

 

Its an interesting set up, the ECM in particular is showing a synoptical evolution conducive to producing a possible cold period - indeed echos of Dec 09, and Nov 10 about it (dare I say it).

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Please keep to friendly discussion, Any concerns please report.

 

Thanks, PM. 

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Nick Miller just mentioned the easterlies on the tonight's weather for the week ahead. He says there is ''slim chance of it to happen after next week''. :(

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As much as it's good news, Lets please stick to what the Models are showing. There is a weather in the media thread open.

 

Many Thanks, PM

Edited by Polar Maritime

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Londonsnowstorm

Those charts you post certainly do show northern blocking, and that has been the case for some time. However the uk is still dominated by the low nearby to our west/southwest. And within the reliable timeframe theres no cold. Now ive not said that it wont happen, the ukmo apparently puts the risk at 10%.

Northern blocking doesnt automatically mean we will get cold. But it is a possibility.

My post was aimed at the ecm, which as things stand is an outlier, and the over reliance on believing it when it has no or little support.
 

Edited by Polar Maritime
To remove off topic comments.

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I've moved deleted and edited numerous posts. Please think before posting, And keep on topic or your post will go missing. And it's not something i or the team enjoy doing on a Saturday night or any other for that matter.

 

Many Thanks, PM. 

Edited by Polar Maritime

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Londonsnowstorm

Those charts you post certainly do show northern blocking, and that has been the case for some time. However the uk is still dominated by the low nearby to our west/southwest. And within the reliable timeframe theres no cold. Now ive not said that it wont happen, the ukmo apparently puts the risk at 10%.

Northern blocking doesnt automatically mean we will get cold. But it is a possibility.

My post was aimed at the ecm, which as things stand is an outlier, and the over reliance on believing it when it has no or little support.

Yes get excited about cold potential if thats your bag. But at least heed what snowking says who i agree with. It happens every years, too many hopes built on ramps which often result in disappointed.

 

Fair enough, I don't disagree with any of that :good:  However, I also reckon (or at least hope) that most posters on here are fully aware that any cold spell is still a fairly long way off (at the very, very least 8-10 days) and that what we're looking at is the building blocks of something rather anything concrete at this stage. 

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Fair enough, I don't disagree with any of that :good:  However, I also reckon (or at least hope) that most posters on here are fully aware that any cold spell is still a fairly long way off (at the very, very least 8-10 days) and that what we're looking at is the building blocks of something rather anything concrete at this stage.

Cheers :)

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Major changes at 144 hrs on the pub run tonight compared to yesterday,and is yet more evidence of how this pattern is evolving.

 

today..  yesterday..

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Day 8 on the 18z is completely different to the 12z, looks like it's trending more towards the ECM too me.

 

gfsnh-0-186.png?18gfsnh-0-192.png?12

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The 18z is a good example of the improvement the new gfs will show. The old one just doesn't see the persistence of the amplification and flattens the pattern too much.

Edited by bluearmy

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Both the GFS's are disappointing compared to the ECM :angry:

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Much mention of "That ECM" in this thread to serve as a kind of warning over the evolution the ECM is currently showing.  While remembered well, it shouldn't be forgotten that what followed "That ECM" was the coldest Jan, Feb and March for over 25 years including the coldest March for over 50 years.

Much of some of the excellent commentary I've read on here relating to what the models have been showing recently have been emphatic about what could be the resulting trend rather than the specifics. Even the ECM showing an easterly that "fails" then is a sign of how the potential is built in to produce one, and once it is, it's likely we will get one at some stage.

Some terrific charts today and some great reading in this thread.

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Both the GFS's are disappointing compared to the ECM :angry:

Hence you should take on board all available data and not pin your hopes on any one run, especially in fi. We will most likely get something between the two (ecm gfs)

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Both the GFS's are disappointing compared to the ECM :angry:

Scrooge 1 and Scrooge 2 ride in to town to burst the festive balloon! We best wait till the morning before drawing too many conclusions from the GFS, anyway it wouldn't be the same in here without some drama!

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Easterly fails to really even get started on the GFS. Disappointing run overall. We shall see how this progresses tomorrow.

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Both the GFS's are disappointing compared to the ECM :angry:

 

Different rather than disappointing surely.  Stronger sceuro ridge, Atlantic ridge heading to Iceland rather than Greenland at t144, and more energy in Eastern Canada.  What will tomorrow show for these?

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Different rather than disappointing surely.  Stronger sceuro ridge, Atlantic ridge heading to Iceland rather than Greenland at t144, and more energy in Eastern Canada.  What will tomorrow show for these?

 

Yes heath, Another run of many others to come before any clarity. The uncertainty continues with the PV continuing to be in taters. Still early days yet..

Edited by Polar Maritime

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Hopefully the ECM is like Chelsea according to mourinho, champion of Autumn.

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