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Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond


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When does the parallel GFS take over? I have to admit that I'm looking at that rather than the lame duck version now.

 

EDIT: I can actually see the contours of Baffin Bay on this run, such a change from last year when it seemed to be permanently drenched in dark blue and purple.

Edited by ukpaul
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When does the parallel GFS take over? I have to admit that I'm looking at that rather than the lame duck version now.

It should be 9th December according to this post: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81409-gfs-upgrade-coming-november-2014/?p=3053057

 

Looks like it won't be much longer until the ghost of the current GFS will be heading up to that big glow in the sky...  :sorry:

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It could be a week later but quite honestly, does it matter much? We can see the parallel. What's more relevant is when the upgrade on gefs is visible as we don't currently have a parallel version to view.

Interesting to see themes in fi parallel mimicking some of those fi ens ideas I mentioned earlier.

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not really john - want to see the new gefs ens suite running. Have no idea when it will go live but the fact we still don't see it running in parallel leads me to think it won't be this side of the new year.

I wonder if tomorrow's ops will begin to show a complete split to our north in week 2?

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It should be 9th December according to this post: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81409-gfs-upgrade-coming-november-2014/?p=3053057

 

Looks like it won't be much longer until the ghost of the current GFS will be heading up to that big glow in the sky...  :sorry:

 

It's served us well but its time to move on and join NOGAPS in the Weather Model heaven  :angel:
 
Nothing much else to add as most of todays model runs have already been discussed, just that over the past few days I've been keeping a check on the CFS daily runs and noticed a overall trend in a blocked pattern consistently showing daily now for November into early December. Of course the exact details on any events that we may see won't be pinned down until nearer the time but its good to see a favourable trend at the moment in the longer range model.
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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=12&ech=192&carte=1&mode=0

 

The first wave 2 Greenland blocking run a la 2009 of the season so far :)

Steve I admire your optimism, I can't fault you there. Models certainly seem to have taken a shift to the mild theme today though. If we get Synoptics like Ptb17 there I will be stunned

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Steve I admire your optimism, I can't fault you there. Models certainly seem to have taken a shift to the mild theme today though. If we get Synoptics like Ptb17 there I will be stunned

There's nothing remotely mild in the models I've seen?

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There's nothing remotely mild in the models I've seen?

Really?

Rtavn962.gif

 

Also IanF tweeted earlier this evening "UKMO latest assessment into 15d offers "no sign of any significant cold weather in any output". Beyond: unknown."

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Really?

Rtavn962.gif

 

Also IanF tweeted earlier this evening "UKMO latest assessment into 15d offers "no sign of any significant cold weather in any output". Beyond: unknown."

 

Maybe the operative word there is 'significant' - one should not expect significant cold in the middle of November but it does not rule out a trend to cold.

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The GFSP showing a very unsettled wet/cool N/W flow out in the run, Then swinging to the North maybe.

 

gfsnh-0-204.png?18gfsnh-0-312.png?18gfsnh-0-360.png?18

Edited by Polar Maritime
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i think its clear the latter runs of the ecm is rather over the top and this was a feature early last winter most models though do see a slow trend to colder climes.

i was thinking last night do we really want the cold now?

id rather wait until december repeat 09/10 would be good enough.

 

but the models certainly are full steam ahead.

just goes to show a east QBO neg OPI and el nino do look like pretty good tool for possible cold.

 

my chart of the day is 

ECM1-240.GIF?08-12

very very unlikely to happen but slowly but surely this could well become reality by december.

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I think one can look at the output one of two ways.

 

If you're a glass half empty type then its not up to much from a cold perspective and looks a bit of a stalemate at present.

 

If you're a glass half full type then you'll take comfort from the set up which means the route to cold doesn't need a scriptwriting team.

 

 

and what would a realist say? :wink:

 

i really cant see much more then a pretty normal november. yes theres a huge northern block, but the anomaly charts suggest it weakens and drifts further north. they also support the current ecm/gfs op runs

 

post-2797-0-34606800-1415433066_thumb.gipost-2797-0-24037600-1415433078_thumb.gi

 

the ecm 00z follows the 12z by exiting the current high over scandinavia eastwards to be replaced by another high from the north, keeping the atlantic lows to our west and the uk under unsettled but average- mild.

post-2797-0-64450400-1415433444_thumb.gi post-2797-0-10108800-1415433470_thumb.gi post-2797-0-66025100-1415433486_thumb.gi

 

and the gfs pretty much agrees, current scandi/northern european high drifting east to be replaced from the north.

 

post-2797-0-99605000-1415433622_thumb.gi post-2797-0-13619000-1415433639_thumb.gi post-2797-0-92654900-1415433678_thumb.gi

 

and further into fi the potential easterly never makes it here.... yet (plenty of time) but appears to suggest the high slips slowly southward.

 

post-2797-0-75618000-1415433791_thumb.gi

 

i might not be in the cold spotters club, but i can find nothing within the reliable , semi reliable, or fi to get concerned about just yet.

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Ok I'm liking what I'm seeing before us.  We are seeing LPs moving towards us on a WNW/ESE angle, a Jetstream set up I have and am touting as a 'general' pattern this winter.  As regard to cold hitting our shores, keep your eye now on deepest GFS.  Not for pinpoint accuracy but for timing....around start of last week of Nov for the 'switch' to cold conditions.  LPs to moving across on marked NW/SE axis and ushering flow from N to E quadrant.   

To be honest, something like this wouldn't be out of sync with my thoughts, not exact but one can get the gist......but I think we will have to endure more wet and not 'real' cold for a wee while yet. 

 

gfs-0-348.png?0

 

 

Just viewed the ECM, same theme but earlier than my thoughts, let's see where that goes...its a cracking run no doubt.  What were we saying about the hemisphere 'loading itself' ??? :wink:  

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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i think its clear the latter runs of the ecm is rather over the top and this was a feature early last winter most models though do see a slow trend to colder climes.

i was thinking last night do we really want the cold now?

id rather wait until december repeat 09/10 would be good enough.

 

but the models certainly are full steam ahead.

just goes to show a east QBO neg OPI and el nino do look like pretty good tool for possible cold.

 

my chart of the day is 

ECM1-240.GIF?08-12

very very unlikely to happen but slowly but surely this could well become reality by december.

I wouldn't call this unlikely. Some sort of block to our north looks quite possible now. If that happened, this is just oneone of a few reasonably likely options.

There could be snow on this one too - as is often mentioned, 850s can be higher on an easterly.

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With the ECM and UKMO in agreement at day 6, then there is certainly a good chance of a true Scandi high developing into week 2 (as in one supported by low pressure and cold air to the south as opposed to the moment where it is fed by mid-latitude ridging). We do need agreement on the development of heights towards Svalbard which will allow cold air to start feeding into Europe slowly but surely.

The GEM does this a few days later but the damage is done

gemnh-0-240.png?00

Good polar heights, bad Atlantic and European pattern with a developing mild southerly.

So need for caution at the moment

To be honest, the GFS isn't far off the Euros on the block. So we have a good start point in my opinion. GFS parallel, not so hot. 

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i cant post links on the iphone

ECM mean at 9 & 10 looking pretty solid-

Expect the odd twitch at UK met today maybe even a tweet from ramper Liam Dutton....

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