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Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond


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Posted
  • Location: North Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms / Sunshine / Snow
  • Location: North Bristol

    My dad who has many years experience of model watching just peered over my shoulder and took one look at the NH pattern that's developing on my laptop screen (GFS 18Z P), shook his head and said.... '' Son, It's gonna be a bad one''!

     

    gfsnh-0-252.png?18

     

    If that starts making it into the reliable time frame then I think a big chunk of the netweather community will start getting palpitations. Lovely to see these charts appearing, especially a real push of heights moving across the Arctic and Greenland. 

     

    However, for now, it looks like a continuation of alternating cool, unsettled weather. Low pressure systems want to push towards the UK with periods of rain interspersed with sunny spells and squally showers. 

     

    A great NH profile seems to be continuing to take shape though, if cold weather is your thing, but of course it will depend where pressure patterns set up and what side the UK is on in relation to that. It will be interesting to see where we are model output wise as we move into next week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Extreme FI on the GFS p is extreme, and probably won't be there tomorrow. Best FI this silly season so far though.

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Extreme FI on the GFS p is extreme, and probably won't be there tomorrow. Best FI this silly season so far though.

    It's a screamer that's for sure. Relative to November averages, the UK stands on the edge of going into the freezer on that run.

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    Posted
  • Location: Northern Ireland
  • Location: Northern Ireland

    Oh my goodness. Cannot get over the last section of the gfs P. It goes from a NE to a N!! Exactly what happened in 2010, would be fantastic if this happened again!! Fingers crossed.

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    Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions

    Well goodness me, GREAT BALLS OF FIRE!!!

     

    Very interesting, the pattern is constant, the location of high pressure over the past week and going into FI has been constant, theres something coming....

     

    But we will have to wait and see!! Keep Smiling folks :) A pub run special tonight obviously!!! :) 

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    Posted
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL

    Blowing a real hoolie here tonight in the NW - but further upstream this is as good at it gets for ppn.

     

    post-6879-0-02258700-1415315833_thumb.pn

     

    Early days but all a bit flat......

     

    Ian

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    tentative signs emerging of a colder outlook out in cuckoo land :) but its there nonetheless, nothing especially cold as we have no cold pool to tap into yet I think we'll have to wait till late nov early dec. WAA getting into the heart of Greenland. Which should help displace cold air south!

    18z is not the most prolific, but with the pv in its current state I would certainly not rule it out...

    post-19153-0-39573700-1415315880_thumb.jpost-19153-0-81905900-1415315959_thumb.j

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Rotherham - 114M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Bramley, Rotherham - 114M ASL

    Thank you Steve and others who replied to my post earlier. What a fantastic forum this is, and a brilliant place to learn.

     

    Whatever the end result of all this excitement is, lets just hope its a bit like this:

     

    gfs-1-384.png?18

     

    :cold: :cold: :cold: :cold: :good:

    Edited by Winter Cold
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    Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

    First post in here in a while but will say things are looking extremely interesting. The only thing that sours the situation is that Madden will take credit if we get a sig. cold spell and also I will have to chunk 100 quid on a jacket :D

     

    I think people must play the long game at the moment, the synoptics unfolding are actually beautiful, the polar vortex is struggling and is being broken into 3 or 4 segments. Comparing the NH profile from this year to last is telling. Whether Ireland and the UK manage to get a direct, deep and prolonged Arctic outbreak is uncertain. But at this early stage I would be confident that we will get a sig. cold spell at some stage.

    If this year does see exceptional cold across mid-latitudes it will be the year that changes future winter forecasting forever. The OPI and snow indices have not been tested enough to receive recognition from Scientists but this year would be a milestone where we have a tangible predictor of conditions in the coming 2-3 months.

    Interesting times ahead.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    I see the GFS P has caused some excitement! It's not really that outlandish given the overall NH set up and if the UK is to get some cold its more likely to come from that type of set up with an east based negative NAO.

     

    Overall some good signs this evening but lets not get too impatient, its just early November so plenty of time and if the PV remains split and we keep those positive heights to the ne things will eventually fall into place.

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    Posted
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL

    I would bank this at 240 hrs!

     

    hgt300.png

    Yes - but it's the +240 bit as per usual.

     

    Guilty as charged myself for clutching at straws - but that is a nice jet.

     

    Ian

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    Posted
  • Location: Matlock Derbyshire
  • Location: Matlock Derbyshire

    been out tonight Steve thanks for your update, ive been around on netweather for some years now and look forward to your detailed posts. this winter looks so different to last year, so come on lets have another good one. The low pressure systems seen to be heading NW TO SE, and if we can trust the strat reports then there's plenty to look forward to. I am trying to be optimistic about the end of November into early dec. models are really showing showing some great promise.

    thanks

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Great steps towards victory have been taken tonight..

     

    To start with the Euro undercuts sufficiently that the high is carved out and would lose its link to the south, this would in coming days send cold air into Europe.

     

    But secondly, tonight we have the parallel and GEM achieving complete victory..

     

    Rpgfs2403.gif

     

    The odds on a cold second half of November are increasing.

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Boy are you folks gona wake up to dream charts in the morning from the gfs/parallel run!!!there is no vortex whatsoever and huge heights have taken control over practically the whole of the north Pole(not being dramatic)!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

    Nice to wake up to a continuation of good charts this morning.

    GFS really starting to lock on to this pattern of a strong negative AO now. The consistency even being shown in deep FI is very encouraging, very similar to 2010. Once it locked on to the pattern back then there was very little deviation.

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