Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond

[Barry12]

This apparent 2 weeks of zonal weather looks non-existent.

[Tom Jarvis]

As I was saying a few days ago the smallest things at the start of the run can lead to larger implications later on in the run. untill thing are resolved remember the traits that some models have and take them into account when looking at a run and you can then start to see what will happen.

[bluearmy]

Perhaps those of you praying for the demise of the sceuro ridge and a rush through of the Atlantic can see from the pub run, where some of us are coming from. The ingredients are around and whilst it's unlikely that the recipe will come together, there is a chance.

[SMU]

Just an image or 2 of what to look for in the next 24 hours.....

 

Tonights NAVGEM 12z 180

 

 

Red is where we see lows diving SSE, yellow line is where you get a big ridge build to the NE & blue is the cold moving out of Siberia.....

 

ECM toyed with this yesterday -

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=13&mois=11&annee=2014&heure=12&archive=1&mode=1&ech=72&map=1&type=0

 

note the 216 charts has the lows diving SE

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014111312/ECH1-216.GIF?12

240 sees the ridge building NE

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014111312/ECH1-240.GIF?12

 

This is when it all goes to plan

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=5&month=1&hour=0&year=1987&map=4&mode=2

T0 low diving SE

T72 Low diving SE over Scandi

T108 low diving Se over the UK

T156 high in the right place

S

 

 

 

 

Edited November 14, 2014 by Steve Murr

[chionomaniac]

This apparent 2 weeks of zonal weather looks non-existent.

On what basis do you make and justify this statement Barry?

 

Is it on the latest NAEFS ens? 

Is it on the latest ECM ens?

Is it on the latest forecast MJO ensemble forecasts?

Is it on the composite analogs for comparable years.?

Is it on the latest lower strat forecasts that keeps a daughter vortex following the split in the SWest Greenland area?

Is it on high SAI November projected anomaly pattern?

Is it on the jet stream forecast following the cold USA pattern?

 

Or is it on the GFS FI from the 18Z pub run? Hmmm

[Barry12]

Perhaps those of you praying for the demise of the sceuro ridge and a rush through of the Atlantic can see from the pub run, where some of us are coming from. The ingredients are around and whilst it's unlikely that the recipe will come together, there is a chance.

 

Why some people thinking the Atlantic breaking through would be good for cold in the future is beyond me...

[Yarmy]

Just an image or 2 of what to look for in the next 24 hours.....

Tonights NAVGEM 12z 180

Steve, I can see your yellow Svalbard high and the blue Russian undercut, but what do the red lines indicate?

Edit: oh right, just seen hour edit.

FWIW, GPS Parallel sends the southern arm of the jet way down south into Africa.

Edited November 14, 2014 by Yarmy

[Barry12]

On what basis do you make and justify this statement Barry?

 

Is it on the latest NAEFS ens? 

Is it on the latest ECM ens?

Is it on the latest forecast MJO ensemble forecasts?

Is it on the composite analogs for comparable years.?

Is it on the latest lower strat forecasts that keeps a daughter vortex following the split in the SWest Greenland area?

Is it on high SAI November projected anomaly pattern?

Is it on the jet stream forecast following the cold USA pattern?

 

Or is it on the GFS FI from the 18Z pub run? Hmmm

 

Well the Atlantic onslaught seems to keep being pushed back, especially over the last 48 hours.

 

UKMO 12z 144 hours:

 

 

ECM 144 hours

 

 

I'm not going to bother argue someone far more knowledgeable than me, but you can't deny the Atlantic onslaught is being pushed back.

[bluearmy]

On what basis do you make and justify this statement Barry?

 

Is it on the latest NAEFS ens? 

Is it on the latest ECM ens?

Is it on the latest forecast MJO ensemble forecasts?

Is it on the composite analogs for comparable years.?

Is it on the latest lower strat forecasts that keeps a daughter vortex following the split in the SWest Greenland area?

Is it on high SAI November projected anomaly pattern?

Is it on the jet stream forecast following the cold USA pattern?

 

Or is it on the GFS FI from the 18Z pub run? Hmmm

Bit unfair ed - it is non existent on this pub run which is where the discussion currently resides. Agreed that the ens outlook does get zonality into the uk but given the westward corrections of the ops, it's feasible that zonality could end up short of nw Europe ?? feasible but currently not the favourite.

[SMU]

Yarmy

 

Where lows are diving SE-

 

See this ECM chart- note the 2 clear systems 'diving' SE-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014111312/ECH1-216.GIF?12

 

1020 Low which is NE of Svalbard

995 low NE of Scotland

 

Next day

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014111312/ECH1-240.GIF?12

 

They have moved SSE & the ridge is building over the top.

 

Tonights UKMO

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014111412/UN144-21.GIF?14-17

 

first low is developing over Svalbard ( 1020 ) to the south

& the atlantic low hasn't developed yet

 

Compare the GFS 18z control & UKMO 144 are identical.

 

Now run the GFS control......

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=0&carte=1 
S
 

Edited November 14, 2014 by Steve Murr

[knocker]

OOH

Edited November 14, 2014 by Polar Maritime
More explanation in future would be helpful.

[SMU]

GFS ensembles-

 

Control, PTB 6, PTB 7,PTB 14 ( poss) , PTB 20 (Poss)

 

all on the same wavelength.....

 

S

 

Hi Barry- its not the full on atlantic, but segments of energy getting amplified & moving SE across the UK....

Edited November 14, 2014 by Steve Murr

[blizzard81]

GFS ensembles-

 

Control, PTB 6, PTB 7,PTB 14 ( poss) , PTB 20 (Poss)

 

all on the same wavelength.....

 

S

All well and good Steve but you have always seemed to slate GFS 18z in the past. Why place faith in it now ?

[shaky]

Yarmy

 

Where lows are diving SE-

 

See this ECM chart- note the 2 clear systems 'diving' SE-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014111312/ECH1-216.GIF?12

 

1020 Low which is NE of Svalbard

995 low NE of Scotland

 

Next day

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014111312/ECH1-240.GIF?12

 

They have moved SSE & the ridge is building over the top.

 

Tonights UKMO

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014111412/UN144-21.GIF?14-17

 

first low is developing over Svalbard ( 1020 ) to the south

& the atlantic low hasn't developed yet

 

Compare the GFS 18z control & UKMO 144 are identical.

 

Now run the GFS control......

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=0&carte=1 

S

control run is pretty interesting towards then end of high resolution! Trough desruption and heights building to the north east!!

[Yarmy]

OOH

Some elaboration, Knocker? It's enough of a struggle to keep up with the SAI, OPI, AO, NAO, ENSO, SOI, SST, MJO, CIA, FBI, but the OOH? :-)

Yarmy

 

Where lows are diving SE-

 

See this ECM chart- note the 2 clear systems 'diving' SE-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014111312/ECH1-216.GIF?12

 

1020 Low which is NE of Svalbard

995 low NE of Scotland

 

Next day

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014111312/ECH1-240.GIF?12

 

They have moved SSE & the ridge is building over the top.

 

Tonights UKMO

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014111412/UN144-21.GIF?14-17

 

first low is developing over Svalbard ( 1020 ) to the south

& the atlantic low hasn't developed yet

 

Compare the GFS 18z control & UKMO 144 are identical.

 

Now run the GFS control......

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=0&carte=1 

S

Cheers.

[chionomaniac]

Bit unfair ed - it is non existent on this pub run which is where the discussion currently resides. Agreed that the ens outlook does get zonality into the uk but given the westward corrections of the ops, it's feasible that zonality could end up short of nw Europe ?? feasible but currently not the favourite.

Granted, and I agree that there is a possibilty that the forecast split could realign more favourably for the UK so apologies to Barry there. However, I feel that a little more should be offered when discussing the models than just one line without any form of explanation and demonstration why. At least Steve is backing his thoughts up with explanation and charts, and I understand with his posts that we still need the dropped pack off cards to stack up perfectly. Still, cold is over two weeks away from this set up and the Atlantic will be there or thereabouts during that time.

[nick sussex]

Why some people thinking the Atlantic breaking through would be good for cold in the future is beyond me...

True we've seen this clamour for a reset in the past which just ends in tears. It's hard to see any cold coming from the nw, with the upstream pattern as it is we really have to be looking at the ne or east.

 

In terms of the output tonights  18hrs GFS is very similar to yesterday evenings ECM, sometimes you get a trend which comes and goes before finally being picked up across the NWP.

 

Lets hope that rings true here!

[SMU]

All well and good Steve but you have always seemed to slate GFS 18z in the past. Why place faith in it now ?

 

Well where do you start.....

 

All the models more or less are at the same place at 144.with the development of these 2 sliding lows, - ( 168) is where the action needs to start)

 

UKMO

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014111412/UN144-21.GIF?14-17 developing

 

NAVGEM

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014111418/navgemnh-0-144.png?14-23 - good

 

GEM

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014111412/gemnh-0-168.png?12   very good.

 

ECM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014111412/ECH1-168.GIF?14-0 not quite as good.

 

18z

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014111418/gfsnh-0-168.png?18

 

So the 18z isn't suddenly seeing a NEW signal, its just it has the timeline to go past the 168 mark, all models on a similar page around 144 with divergence around the solution.

 

The KEY area is circled

 

we have to get enough amplitude in that high to get the high ridging behind-

 

This works

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=7&ech=6&carte=1&mode=0

 

The GEM tries it is VERY close, but loses the signal at 180 by moving to quickly east

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0

 

so in answer your question its not the GFS or indeed 18z with this individual notion, its the models reacting to the jet being a one legged donkey & the strat warming fast!!

S

Edited November 14, 2014 by Steve Murr

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Yet another flip flop by gfs don't think we will have this resolved till Mondays runs are out Fi at present is 120hr I would say.

Don't think there will ever be a resolution at this rate!

 

At least we know there's a better chance of some decent wintry spells this time next month judging from the atmospheric conditions and SAI this year compared to last year!

[SMU]

Blizzard81

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=25&month=12&hour=0&year=1984&map=4&mode=2

 

not the lows dropping SE at 144.....

S

[blizzard81]

Blizzard81

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=25&month=12&hour=0&year=1984&map=4&mode=2

 

not the lows dropping SE at 144.....

S

Thanks for the replies Steve, I hope your intuitions are correct on this one.

[Bobby]

The 18z GFS ensembles are overall more unsettled than the 12z with disturbed Atlantic weather more frequent. However there are some interesting solutions popping up in FI, this has been a little trend recently. Just for fun but look at some of these cold pools lurking to the E...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I get a feeling something mayyy be stirring in the models.

[phil nw.]

A few posts have been removed- no model discussion.

Any references to historical weather are for other threads please.

Let's stick to the here and now in this thread.

Cheers all.

[Snowy L]

It's opposite day for the GFS Parallel, warm scandi high keeping the cold Atlantic away

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rpgfs2522.gif

 

Though not a bad run at all, certainly seems drier than a lot of the previous model outputs.

Edited November 15, 2014 by Snowy L

[SMU]

last one from me tonight-

 

the dutch link for the ECM run shows a fair crop of very cold members past day 12

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim

 

If we look at the dewpoint line then at day 12 theres an increasing amount of runs dropping below zero.....

 

I will take the -20 run please...... watch for trending tomorrow......

interesting that its only 15th Nov & we see runs with MAXIMA of -3c for de bilt in the mix.

S

Edited November 15, 2014 by Steve Murr