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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond

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Both the GFS and GFS P  refusing to back down in terms of some renewed amplification over the ne USA.

 

Interesting to see what the ECM makes of this but I don't think it would be that much of a surprise given the PV remaining split seems to be one thing the models do agree with.

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first signs of gradual warming in the strat towards the end of that run for the first time. Straws people, plenty of straws.

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Pretty uninspiring output on the 12z so far pertaining to the UK. For a start the GFS op does not even have the northerly for mid week for most.

 

GEM tries to build Atlantic heights towards Greenland at D8 but fails:

 

post-14819-0-39888400-1414777909_thumb.p  D10: post-14819-0-56475300-1414777931_thumb.p

 

GFS also tries at D8 and with a slacker flow from the Atlantic it does send a wedge of weak height north but not enough to get excited about:

 

D8: post-14819-0-22337000-1414778043_thumb.p  D10: post-14819-0-07509000-1414778055_thumb.p

 

There follows in FI the repeating pattern of ridging close to the UK that topples as another rush of lower heights arrive from the NW/W so at D16:

 

post-14819-0-46846100-1414778143_thumb.p

 

The GFS Parallel has the similar D8 chart: post-14819-0-25726800-1414778222_thumb.p

 

Sends a wedge of HP towards Scandi but its a mobile picture so the HP edges SE as the slack flow continues:

 

post-14819-0-96139900-1414778348_thumb.p  post-14819-0-31336600-1414778364_thumb.p post-14819-0-05945100-1414778376_thumb.p

 

The GFS control has a bit more oomph in the latter stages so is more mobile than the other runs and by D16: post-14819-0-07066400-1414778449_thumb.p

 

The PV remains split with GFS planting the main blob on the  Siberia side so this explains the slack flow: post-14819-0-97736300-1414778549_thumb.p

 

Just a case of twiddling our thumbs hoping the background signals continue to be positive; from continued wave 1 activity to possible wave 2 signals. Will see if the ECM kills the build of heights to the NE tonight and joins GEM & GFS.

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ECM 12z still building pressure over Scandi, polar vortex not looking too healthy.

 

ECH1-144.GIF?31-0ECH1-168.GIF?31-0ECH1-192.GIF?31-0

Edited by Barry95

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T192 - no real clear cut pattern. And quite different to T216 from yesterday. Signifies a very unstable situation. If I was guessing the next step, well, the ECM is traditionally a bit better with Scandi Heights and GFS a bit better with North Atlantic heights. So perhaps a High building between Iceland and Scandi with a cut-off low underneath?

 

ECH1-192.GIF?31-0

gfsnh-0-192.png?12

gfsnh-0-192.png?12

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I'd class the output as teasing but not sure exactly what it wants to deliver.  The ECM in particular looks to have hit the buffers in terms of being very volatile and the GFS has two consecutive runs where it agrees with itself!

 

The overall picture with the split PV remains and so its not too difficult to see a cold outcome popping up, its certainly better than staring at a raging PV stuck to the north.

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both naefs and ecm ens out to mid november have mean sceuro ridge in combination with atlantic trough which sinks towards iberia before being replenished.  i would expect this to continue to shove warmer uppers towards svaalbard area with associated wave 1 activity to follow. ecm ens continue to show highish aomolys over the arctic with vortex remaining split.

Edited by bluearmy

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A look at the D10 anomalies and beyond.

 

The NOAA 8-14 has HP over the pole, a weak trough running west/east south of Greenland with the HP south of it and also  higher heights east of the UK. No serious troughing or amplification in N. America.

 

The GEFS at D10 is not dissimilar although it does have a more significant trough NE Canada that does allow the mid Atlantic HP to progress further north.  The upshot of this is a pretty bland picture with a LP/HP north south split in the Atlantic with HP to the east. About average temps or even a little above. Further afield much of the same with the HP becoming more dominate.

 

Quite a positive temp anomaly in Earope.

 

The ECM a fairly similar story with the split vortex but the main difference a trough in the eastern Atlantic which tends towards lower pressure in the surface analysis rather than the N/S split with the HP. The jet is also a tad further south to accommodate this scenario.

 

 

post-12275-0-69508800-1414793833_thumb.g

post-12275-0-36493700-1414793849_thumb.p

post-12275-0-68022300-1414793857_thumb.p

post-12275-0-26200700-1414793873_thumb.p

post-12275-0-92436200-1414793880_thumb.p

post-12275-0-06801900-1414793894_thumb.p

post-12275-0-40604900-1414793902_thumb.p

post-12275-0-55840900-1414793920_thumb.p

post-12275-0-74107700-1414794014_thumb.p

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18z showing very warm upper air flooding over Europe at the end of the high res

 

Rtavn1802.gif

Very mild at 2M over a vast swathe of the continent

Rtavn1865.gif

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The parallel GFS pub run in FI is miles away from its soon-to-be-shelved counterpart. Weak, shredded vortex and an incoming Easterly.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=360&mode=0&runpara=1&carte=1

Of course it won't happen and indeed will be gone in 6 hours, but it's broad patterns that are of interest at this time of year.

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The PV realy is in tatters towards the end of the "new" GFS, A much cooler/unsettled pattern showing over-all for the 1st half of November.

 

gfsnh-0-324.png?18

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From the details early on in the OPI  thread, I did some research and pattern matching which led me to the conclusion that 76/77 would be a good analogue to choose for this winter.

 

I'm pleased to see the move into November continues to forecast something broadly similar.

 

3ZvrU5g.gif 5pnp7Co.gif

 

 

 

Could this be the year we once again see a Canadian warming - time will tell, as with all things weather related.

 

Edit to add that the NOAA upstream analogues are agreeing with my ramblings ....for the time being.

 

xVx3fmi.gif

Edited by Nouska

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Marked contrast. It's quite possible the anomaly in the SE won't be replicated this winter.

 

post-12275-0-68701200-1414825240_thumb.p

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The overnight run is again showing plenty of cold/unsettled Pm shots as Lows swing S/E over the UK. And the PV continuing disorganised.

 

gfsnh-0-90.png?0gfsnh-0-174.png?0gfsnh-0-360.png?0

Edited by Polar Maritime

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GFS still toying with the idea of a warming from the upper reaches of the Strat in FI.

With the way things are shaping up, less a case of take with a pinch of salt and more a case of no smoke without fire?

We have a (relatively) disturbed vortex there for the taking...

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Models at day 6

GFS

gfs-0-144.png?0

GFS(P)

gfs-0-144.png?0

UKMO

UW144-21.GIF?01-05

ECM

ECM1-144.GIF?01-12

GEM

gem-0-144.png?00

 

ECM very isolated in it's evolution, you would back it in situations like this usually, but with the UKMO and GEM backing the GFS solution then that might not be the case. The GFS and to a degree the GEM want to build another Atlantic ridge with stalls this very low pressure system and send it into Europe. There is potential for November to be rather wet as low pressure struggles against the mid latitude block over Eastern Europe/Russia. Nothing particularly cold, but 10/11C will feel cold given we saw 20-23C widely yesterday. 

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The GEFS still looking at slightly above average temps especially to the east.

 

post-12275-0-96391700-1414828976_thumb.p

post-12275-0-44119000-1414828987_thumb.p

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Temps falling from average to slightly below average over the next few days but quickly returning to closer to average. The GFS op is colder but is a clear outlier:

 

post-14819-0-49416700-1414829567_thumb.g

 

The control has more support and that takes us to +6c above average uppers in the south! So looking at the mean (as per above post) then close to average in the UK as a whole. So the next 16 days a westerly flow with brief ridges and troughs, repeated; as per the pressure graph:

 

post-14819-0-50131700-1414829740_thumb.g Next 8 days rainfall, average for most, greater W/NW: post-14819-0-67541300-1414830584_thumb.g

 

More importantly (possibly) is that we should have a good negative OPI and with a good SAI things should be a lot better than last year for cold winter fans. As it stands the first half of November from all models look seasonal as we look like losing the above average temp anomaly of Sep/Oct. After that nothing at the moment suggests the last two weeks of November will change too much. The D16 NH chart from the GFS Parallel not promising too much:

 

post-14819-0-62649500-1414830702_thumb.p

 

The CFS MJO suggests phase 3 and 4 for the second half of November: post-14819-0-13112000-1414830864_thumb.p

 

The composites are as follows: post-14819-0-01117800-1414830933_thumb.g post-14819-0-64783100-1414830943_thumb.g

 

So maybe a retrogression of the heights from Europe towards the UK as we head into late November/early December. Early days.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...

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Morning All-

 

The tide starting to swing to co0ld now in the model outlook, the GFS comes up with a cold pattern from 144- out into FI, where as the ECm is cold from T72 all the way out to 240 ( more so at the surface than uppers)

Remember if your seeing the 0c isotherm kicking about towards the south of the UK, thats 4 degrees below the November average!

 

Have a good day- the last warm day of the year.......

 

S

http://www.meteo24.fr/fr/home/meteo-france-et-europe/passion-meteo/ensemble-de-previsions.html?eps=london

shows clearly on here - apart from a little cluster of milder runs around the 12th. Note that ECM maxes are always a couple degrees shy of verifying maxes though mid fifties for London is average at best for early November.

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No major changes with the ECM anomaly this morning.

 

post-12275-0-89637000-1414836196_thumb.p

post-12275-0-81502600-1414836205_thumb.p

post-12275-0-94150300-1414836214_thumb.p

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