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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015

chionomaniac

By chionomaniac
in Spring Weather Discussion

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WINTRY WALES Aficionado

WINTRY WALES

Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
Posted

Well I'm in the confused camp. One minute there's positive news...the next some negative feed back (such as Bluearmy's post). So are we looking at a less favourable position than we thought? I:e an early January SSW event not happening?? Or just a delay? Sorry for the confusion if this is clear

Regards

WW

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karyo Maestro

karyo

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Posted

Well I'm in the confused camp. One minute there's positive news...the next some negative feed back (such as Bluearmy's post). So are we looking at a less favourable position than we thought? I:e an early January SSW event not happening?? Or just a delay? Sorry for the confusion if this is clear

Regards

WW

I would say that an early January SSW is unlikely but some warming is still taking place and we have to see whether this can help us somewhat. A SSW may still take place but that's more likely in the second half of January or early February.

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WINTRY WALES Aficionado

WINTRY WALES

Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
Posted

I would say that an early January SSW is unlikely but some warming is still taking place and we have to see whether this can help us somewhat. A SSW may still take place but that's more likely in the second half of January or early February.

Thanks for clearing that up. So not going according to plan

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ITSY Seasoned

ITSY

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
Posted

Worth noting this from BBC coldie Chris Fawkes in case anyone has missed it:

 

"The Sudden Stratospheric Warming looks to be underway with vortex splitting in two. Winds weaken significantly at 10HPa...

...This Sudden Stratospheric Warming event is not far off being defined Major the way the winds are decreasing at 10HPa. ..will they reverse?"

 

Seems interesting from a man on the inside...

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karyo Maestro

karyo

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Posted

Worth noting this from BBC coldie Chris Fawkes in case anyone has missed it:

 

"The Sudden Stratospheric Warming looks to be underway with vortex splitting in two. Winds weaken significantly at 10HPa...

...This Sudden Stratospheric Warming event is not far off being defined Major the way the winds are decreasing at 10HPa. ..will they reverse?"

 

Seems interesting from a man on the inside...

Is this a new statement from him or the one made a few days ago? 

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted (edited)

Worth noting this from BBC coldie Chris Fawkes in case anyone has missed it:

 

"The Sudden Stratospheric Warming looks to be underway with vortex splitting in two. Winds weaken significantly at 10HPa...

...This Sudden Stratospheric Warming event is not far off being defined Major the way the winds are decreasing at 10HPa. ..will they reverse?"

 

Seems interesting from a man on the inside...

 

 

Do you know when this comment was made?

 

Cheers

 

EDIT - Beaten to it!

Edited by Don
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Timmytour Accomplished

Timmytour

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
Posted

Is this a new statement from him or the one made a few days ago? 

 

It's a tweet from two hours ago....

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted

Obviously they know something we don't 'as usual'. There are whiffs of a split. 

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted (edited)

I thought an textbook SSW always involves a reversal if not its really not a SSW, his coming to conclusions which are misleading to people IMO. I personally think he is ramping away - however I'd love him to be right. Bear in mind he has access to data us 'common' folk are not allowed to see.

post-19153-0-11879200-1420029299_thumb.j

Edited by Daniel*
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syncmaster Rookie

syncmaster

Posted
  • Location: Burton upon Stather North Lincs 77 mts Asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold blasts, snowy Summer hot sultry thunderstorms
  • Location: Burton upon Stather North Lincs 77 mts Asl
Posted

It's a tweet from two hours ago....

originally tweeted 2:42 AM - 31 Dec 2014  :yahoo: 

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

He is correct. The split is clearly evident on the Berlin charts from a couple of days ago. The split is clear on the gfs charts freely available now. the zonal flow is clearly weakening massively as per the Berlin charts from a couple, of days ago.

Please guys, use the links that ed gave you at the beginning of the thread and do your own detective work. It's all there. Chris Fawkes is no seer.

HOWEVER, what we don't know is what will follow the initial split. Previous ECM op data indicated a sustained split but that prediction has now gone. Gfs never went for a renewed split. Chris Fawkes has access to much more data than us and I suspect, if he is tweeting that, the further week 2/3 outlook for the strat profile is positive re coldies. Whether that translates, in time, to the trop is open to question.

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karyo Maestro

karyo

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Posted

He is correct. The split is clearly evident on the Berlin charts from a couple of days ago. The split is clear on the gfs charts freely available now. the zonal flow is clearly weakening massively as per the Berlin charts from a couple, of days ago.

Please guys, use the links that ed gave you at the beginning of the thread and do your own detective work. It's all there. Chris Fawkes is no seer.

HOWEVER, what we don't know is what will follow the initial split. Previous ECM op data indicated a sustained split but that prediction has now gone. Gfs never went for a renewed split. Chris Fawkes has access to much more data than us and I suspect, if he is tweeting that, the further week 2/3 outlook for the strat profile is positive re coldies. Whether that translates, in time, to the trop is open to question.

So if he is right (or has access to data we don't) then the models should start showing a renewed split very soon.

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WINTRY WALES Aficionado

WINTRY WALES

Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
Posted

Crikey haha no wonder there is so much confusion. Chris Fawkes states there is a SSW which is not far from a major SSW....yet I read posts from Bluearmy'(not having a go) saying a SSW is no longer predicted....thus leading to confusion I think with so many less knowledgable readers like myself

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

Crikey haha no wonder there is so much confusion. Chris Fawkes states there is a SSW which is not far from a major SSW....yet I read posts from Bluearmy'(not having a go) saying a SSW is no longer predicted....thus leading to confusion I think with so many less knowledgable readers like myself

 

It is down to definition and there is no right or wrong at the moment. We are awaiting the experts to resolve the differences so lay people won't argue about the semantics of an SSW.

 

Reading that will highlight the prevailing differences: http://birner.atmos.colostate.edu/papers/Butleretal_BAMS2014_submit.pdf

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

I've replied to Chris Fawkes tweet and asked if he is looking at something we don't get to see, but I got a fluffy answer with a link to the ECM charts we all know and look at daily. But from his reply I can only presume he is looking the very same as we all do. confused.com

Edited by karlos1983
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

I've replied to Chris Fawkes tweet and asked if he is looking at something we don't get to see, but I got a fluffy answer with a link to the ECM charts we all know and look at daily. But from his reply I can only presume he is looking the very same as we all do. confused.com

And it's two days old as it hasn't updated!

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

I've replied to Chris Fawkes tweet and asked if he is looking at something we don't get to see, but I got a fluffy answer with a link to the ECM charts we all know and look at daily. But from his reply I can only presume he is looking the very same as we all do. confused.com

 

Bearing in mind they have not been updated since the 28th I suspect he has access to the subsequent days and his conclusions are based on that. I doubt he would tweet 3 day old data?

 

Hopefully they will be updated soon but with a Bank Holiday tomorrow who knows?

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

I tweeted that the chart he tweeted was out of date and he retweeted me ........

 

I suppose it's Top Secret? :fool:

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karyo Maestro

karyo

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Posted

I've replied to Chris Fawkes tweet and asked if he is looking at something we don't get to see, but I got a fluffy answer with a link to the ECM charts we all know and look at daily. But from his reply I can only presume he is looking the very same as we all do. confused.com

That doesn't sound promising.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

I suppose it's Top Secret? :fool:

Meant he retweeted my tweet . I take it that he didn't realise the charts hadn't uodated

There is a lot going on up there and without any charts to view the predicted waves, we are a bit lost.

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted

The ECM and JMA strat charts both not updated today so a look at the latest 06z GFS Strat.charts confirms warming filtering down over the Atlantic side in the next few days.

Today's images from NW extra followed by T144 and T240hrs at both 10 and 30hPa pressure levels.

 

post-2026-0-07837800-1420037282_thumb.pnpost-2026-0-35178800-1420037228_thumb.pn

 

post-2026-0-82639500-1420037235_thumb.pnpost-2026-0-77305500-1420037243_thumb.pn

 

post-2026-0-30168400-1420037253_thumb.pnpost-2026-0-29011300-1420037263_thumb.pn

 

so certainly ongoing warmings showing right through to day 10.

 

No complete vortex split yet showing but stretching and displacement favouring the main area of lower heights a little further west and signs of a probable weakening Atlantic jet if the warming continues on this side.

Approx 50c increase in temp.showing around S.Greenland at day 10

 

Would favour some ridging around our locale if this was to verify i would have thought.

 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Meant he retweeted my tweet . I take it that he didn't realise the charts hadn't uodated

There is a lot going on up there and without any charts to view the predicted waves, we are a bit lost.

 

But you can hazard a guess from the charts you can see and have been kindly updating us with surely.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)

Those charts are from weatherbell

Given that they are usually free via Berlin - I can post the noon charts (as I did yesterday). Will do so again later if new year festivities allow.

The 00z charts are another step towards the broad gfs output.

 

Right, with you now, they are also  a subscription though aren't they?, there is no other way free of charge than Berlin is there?

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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