OCTOBER PATTERN INDEX (OPI) MONITORING WINTER SEASON 2014-2015

[radiohead]

Exactly! If we were aware of the OPI last October we would know that a mild winter was likely.

 

I remember the OPI from last year. I read about it on here and a few other places but it didn't get much attention around these parts, maybe because it was strongly postive last year!

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78104-october-pattern-index-predicting-winter-ao-from-october-with-90-accuracy/

[captaincroc]

Exactly! If we were aware of the OPI last October we would know that a mild winter was likely.

 

Yes, I remember watching many vids on GavsWeatherVideo site and seeing such reds. No disrespect to Gavin obviously, he was just commenting on the models but they couldn't have been further from the truth. So not really fussed in them, especially as the accuracy seems so high for the OPI. 

[ukpaul]

Yes, I hoped that the OPI was wrong last year but, as it turned out, I should have taken more notice.

[karyo]

I remember the OPI from last year. I read about it on here and a few other places but it didn't get much attention around these parts, maybe because it was strongly postive last year!

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78104-october-pattern-index-predicting-winter-ao-from-october-with-90-accuracy/

Oh dear, that thread fell flat before it started! lol

[Gael_Force]

Yes, I remember watching many vids on GavsWeatherVideo site and seeing such reds. No disrespect to Gavin obviously, he was just commenting on the models but they couldn't have been further from the truth. So not really fussed in them, especially as the accuracy seems so high for the OPI. 

 

The reds were indicating very positive anomalies to our north - it is maybe not strong enough to warrant red but definitely very positive to the north on reanalysis of the three winter months. Models were correct in that but the problem is the interpretation of what all these anomalies mean, relative to climatology,

 

[karyo]

Yes, I remember watching many vids on GavsWeatherVideo site and seeing such reds. No disrespect to Gavin obviously, he was just commenting on the models but they couldn't have been further from the truth. So not really fussed in them, especially as the accuracy seems so high for the OPI. 

I can't wait for more egg on the METO's face! 

[Ali1977]

I think the fact the models are pointing to a mild Winter is a good thing at this point, keep people calm till they swing early Nov :-)

[Chris K]

I can't wait for more egg on the METO's face! 

 

In my view, the eggs should firmly be planted on the faces of the people who rely on the long range seasonal models for their winter predictions/hopes, then say the data providers got it all wrong when it does not happen.

 

The MetO have always stated that their seasonal models are experimental and should NOT be used for forecasting any specifics.

 

They are there mainly as a research tool to perhaps, in future, help develop increasingly accurate modelling for months in advance. Some private & civil organisations may take them into account within risk assessments for seasonal planning...but not only using them as one source for their work.

 

This might be a useful read for some...http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/user-guide

Edited October 26, 2014 by Chris K

[karyo]

In my view, the eggs should firmly be planted on the faces of the people who rely on the long range seasonal models for their winter predictions/hopes.

 

The MetO have always stated that their seasonal models are experimental and should NOT be used for forecasting any specifics.

 

They are there mainly as a research tool to perhaps, in future, help develop increasingly accurate modelling for months in advance. Some private & civil organisations may take them into account within risk assessments for seasonal planning...but not only using them as one source for their work.

 

This might be a useful read for some...http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/user-guide

Of course they say their models are experimental and should have no confidence in them because they are almost always wrong!

[Chris K]

Of course they say their models are experimental and should have no confidence in them because they are almost always wrong!

 

Almost always wrong? No confidence in them? If it is experimental, surely "right and wrong" in its simple form doesn't really apply here?

 

Whether the final outcome matches the original seasonal model output or not, I would have thought the MetO actually make use of the data, even if it turns out to be completely off the mark. It could be valuable in finding flaws and potential improvements either way.

Edited October 26, 2014 by Chris K

[karyo]

No update from the 12z! 

[Summer Sun]

No update from the 12z! 

 

Obviously they've decided to ignore it for some reason

[Barry12]

its going to be sub -2

 

watch out the blocking train is coming...

 

lets hope steve murr is right

[easton888]

they have 'ignored' quite a few runs this week.........

[Ali1977]

Do they just ignore them because like many of us they are cold winter fans

[radiohead]

Obviously they've decided to ignore it for some reason

 

 

they have 'ignored' quite a few runs this week.........

 

I'm pretty sure its not a manual choice. They explained that they have something in their formula/code that compares runs and if there is some type of suspect divergence the new run gets discarded. I look forward to reading their full report on how this all works whenever it gets released.

[easton888]

I'd hope not, as they seem very professional and scientific about their work, though it does make you wonder!

[radiohead]

Do they just ignore them because like many of us they are cold winter fans

 

There was no hiding the results last year. Sadly!

 

[Chris K]

I'm pretty sure its not a manual choice. They explained that they have something in their formula/code that compares runs and if there is some type of suspect divergence the new run gets discarded. I look forward to reading their full report on how this all works whenever it gets released.

 

Yes I think it is something along those lines - I think variance was previously mentioned, so as a complete guess from me, if the variance between particular runs was say, an oddly high value/amount, it is held back as if it was an 'outlier' until the next run comes out to compare it with.

[easton888]

Last year's results should be banished from history

[Don]

There was no hiding the results last year. Sadly!

 

 

Hmm, I wonder what it will be like on here this time next year if October 2015's OPI is similar to 2013?  I suppose some of it will depend on how this coming Winter turns out perhaps?

[Barry12]

At first, a cold stratosphere basically meant winters over, now it'll be a positive OPI means winters over

[stewfox]

At first, a cold stratosphere basically meant winters over, now it'll be a positive OPI means winters over

 

Whats the point of your post to wind people up ?

 

People have put a lot of time and effort into the Strat and OPI threads, new areas of research that may add/improve our long term forecasting. I respect them all. 

[bobbydog]

It doesnt matter how many runs they ignore, the final value is based on actual results only. They use the gfs to estimate what it might be and they probably ignore runs to refine their methods. Whatever their reasons, they dont affect the final result. At this range it will make very little difference anyway. We are now guaranteed the second lowest OPI value in 38 years⛄

[Barry12]

Whats the point of your post to wind people up ?

 

People have put a lot of time and effort into the Strat and OPI threads, new areas of research that may add/improve our long term forecasting. I respect them all. 

 

I respect them all, but my point was nothing is a certainty.