Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 30/09/14

[Barry12]

The ECM is far better than the GFS tonight, average to below average temperatures as we go through November.

 

Edited October 28, 2014 by Barry95

[SylvainTV]

Just FYI : People have been waiting & asking for it : The parallel version of GFS (new improved version of the model) is now available.  The forecast differences are quite huge. 

 

GFS Parallel Europe charts are on Météociel (and soon here on Netweather if I have read well ). GFS 0.25° Country charts will follow.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=162&mode=0&runpara=1

 

This new version should be implemented as operationnal GFS on Dec 9th if there is no problem.  So we have 40 days of parallel runs.

Edited October 28, 2014 by SylvainTV

[IDO]

GFS parallel now up and running and D6 op:  Parallel: 

 

The whole run is a lot flatter with a N/S split the last few days: 

 

Some frosty weather possible and feeling cool at times: 

Edited October 28, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Barry12]

The Parallel version of GFS is much better

 

[Man With Beard]

This is becoming like a scratched record this autumn ... PV getting organised "next week", unsettled weather to gain control, PV to get established over Greenland ... and as soon as the charts hit anything like the reliable timeframe, ABRACADABRA!!!! Gone!!

Low heights still absent from Greenland. Low heights still not really getting established over the pole. Such charts are simply not getting into the "reliable", over and over again.

[Polar Maritime]

What do you mean by better Barry?

[nick sussex]

Ridiculous differences between the ECM and GFS, you couldn't find two more polar opposite T240hrs outputs.

 

I think I'll reserve judgement till tomorrow morning as the ECM has hardly covered itself in glory in recent weeks past T168hrs, however if we're talking just about at T144hrs and which model is more likely to have a better handle on how that ne USA low develops then you'd more likely side with the ECM.

 

The last few winters the GFS in particular has been slow to find either the right track or depth of these systems.

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Nick agree there, Models are very topsy turvy on recent runs, Interesting all the same.

[gottolovethisweather]

Is one model actually capable of being better than another at t+1, t+144, t+240 hours ahead anyway?

 

For cooler weather, I agree with Barry yes, the ECM and UKMO are nicer viewing BUT a wise man uses all his tools in his toolbox to inform an opinion on the eventual outcome.

 

Lets get back to some creative analysis of what the bigger picture is, please guys n gals. More meat on the bones, if you would.

 

Thankyou kindly.

 

gottolovethisweather

 

Unsettled warm/very warm and largely cloudy this week and then something potentially cooler by this time next week with a brief respite from the moisture -laden Southwesterlies would be my rather broad brushed view of the more immediate outlook.

Edited October 28, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Barry12]

What do you mean by better Barry?

 

Better for cold is what I meant sorry.

 

The GFS Parallel, the ECM, and the UKMO are all better if your wanting cold. So the likely hood is, that the GFS has the pattern wrong as it seems to be outnumbered. I think November could actually turn out to be a below average month.

Edited October 28, 2014 by Barry95

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

Just FYI : People have been waiting & asking for it : The parallel version of GFS (new improved version of the model) is now available.  The forecast differences are quite huge. 

 

GFS Parallel Europe charts are on Météociel (and soon here on Netweather if I have read well ). GFS 0.25° Country charts will follow.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=162&mode=0&runpara=1

 

This new version should be implemented as operationnal GFS on Dec 9th if there is no problem.  So we have 40 days of parallel runs.

 

Sylvain

The changes are dramatic.....

This period of parallel running will be very interesting.

I will be bookmarking the new url immediately

Thank you

MIA

[nick sussex]

Yes Nick agree there, Models are very topsy turvy on recent runs, Interesting all the same.

There are really two points of contention one upstream and one re the PV.

 

Upstream at T144hrs its how deep/track of low, the ECM is deepest with more inland track, the UKMO/GFS weaker offshore

 

The PV after that as to where it goes, maybe the GFS is still desperate to go into default mode by sticking it over Greenland, although the ECM is not exactly exciting, although it shows some promise I'd rather be at day 10 with it than see the PV getting its sunglasses out and beach towel at the ready to start its holiday to the north!

[knocker]

I think the ECM ops run exemplifies the volatility of the upper meridional pattern and thus the surface analysis. nothing there that would indicate pattern changing.

Edited October 28, 2014 by knocker

[ANYWEATHER]

The unusually mild/warm conditions look to be tempered down next week as November feels like the month should feel . Ive highlighted up to T+168 hrs  as "perhaps" the Uk may see at last something of a sharp , short and sweet  real cold spell...certainly hints of it    

[Cloud 10]

Some familiar differences between the GFS and ECM operational's at day 7 

 

To amplify or not to amplify,that is the question.

 

The same question remains at day 6 with the old GFS,i wonder if the new and improved GFS will have its bias scrubbed out.

 

ecm..  gfs old..

[Newberryone]

We'd like to avoid it really. We all know how long that PV can sit spinning in that location. The issue is that if you look back at years like 09'/'10 the PV struggled to settle in any one place and there were wedges of Arctic heights meandering around.

 

Nov 2009.....unsettled for UK but notice lack of vortex to NW

Thanks CreweCold! I take it so that a meandering PV, as opposed to a stationary one, may give us a better chance down the line of something more sustained in terms of cold/frigid weather.

 

[knocker]

The GFS and ECM are not in complete agreement on how near the coast the Nor'easter will be but the ECM could give a couple of feet of snow north of Maine.

Edited October 28, 2014 by knocker

[damianslaw]

As others have commented, marked differences between ECM and GFS at the edge of reliable timeframe (144 hrs), very often we see this occur throughout the year, and we often then take note of UKMO to see which it sides with, on this occasion the ECM as it often does at this timeframe. 

 

Much depends on the track and intensity of the low pressure system to the north this weekend- a deeper low will allow for strong ridge development over Greenland enabling a northerly flow of sorts to invade the country and any low pressure system coming from USA seaboard to track more southerly.

 

This is quite a pivotal time in terms of the northern hemisphere, it is when you would expect the Polar Vortex to strengthen markedly and secure itself into its early winter comfort zone. This year it has been a diffuse weakened feature reluctant to settle over Greenland. The synoptics of present bear many similiar hallmarks to Nov 2009, with pulses of southerly winds and frontal activity becoming stretched and locked into position such as we saw last weekend when NW Scotland had a sustained period of very heavy rain, similiar to Nov 2009 and what occured in SW Scotland and NW England, whilst the SE was bathed in very clement mild conditions.. 

[knocker]

As others have commented, marked differences between ECM and GFS at the edge of reliable timeframe (144 hrs), very often we see this occur throughout the year, and we often then take note of UKMO to see which it sides with, on this occasion the ECM as it often does at this timeframe. 

 

Much depends on the track and intensity of the low pressure system to the north this weekend- a deeper low will allow for strong ridge development over Greenland enabling a northerly flow of sorts to invade the country and any low pressure system coming from USA seaboard to track more southerly.

 

This is quite a pivotal time in terms of the northern hemisphere, it is when you would expect the Polar Vortex to strengthen markedly and secure itself into its early winter comfort zone. This year it has been a diffuse weakened feature reluctant to settle over Greenland. The synoptics of present bear many similiar hallmarks to Nov 2009, with pulses of southerly winds and frontal activity becoming stretched and locked into position such as we saw last weekend when NW Scotland had a sustained period of very heavy rain, similiar to Nov 2009 and what occured in SW Scotland and NW England, whilst the SE was bathed in very clement mild conditions.. 

 

To be honest I can't see this huge difference at T144.

[SMU]

Its the same old problem with the GFS im afraid- its been the same since 2001 when it was the AVN, the same old bias on the same old run.

 

What we have in this scenario is the GFS trying to move the American Energy ( Deep Low ) at 120- off the coast as fast as possible, this keeping it as one entity across the atlantic & flattening the pattern.

As that low comes into range the track will correct inline with the euros further West & North- more of a coastal hugger, eventually the whole pattern becomes different as the low encourages the azores high to ridge North as opposed to the GFS original solution which is to topple the high East.

 

Give it another day -poss 36 hours & the GFS will be on board.

 

Until then all the analysis of the GFS inc anomaly plots will be a waste of virtual ink'.

 

S

Edited October 28, 2014 by Steve Murr

[nick sussex]

The GFS 18hrs run deepens the ne USA low more and has definitely trended towards the ECM 12hrs run at T144hrs.

 

So certainly something to keep an eye on for tomorrow mornings outputs,  generally the ECM does handle these systems better than the other models and the GFS is often the flattest upstream and slow to amplify the pattern over the ne USA.

[Met4Cast]

The parellel GFS run looks rather exciting at +174..

 

[Man With Beard]

The parellel GFS run looks rather exciting at +174..

 

gfsnh-0-174.png

Just about to say the same - is the new GFS going to reintroduce the pub run?!! Not far off throwing a wintery kitchen sink on this one! Just need heights over Greenland a touch higher.

[Gael_Force]

To be honest I can't see this huge difference at T144.

 

The GFS is struggling to agree with itself. 

 

 

[Cloud 10]

If the parallel gfs keeps churning out runs like this i can see it becoming rather popular very quickly!