Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 30/09/14

[Yarmy]

If the parallel gfs keeps churning out runs like this i can see it becoming rather popular very quickly!

 

gfsnh-0-192.png

Erm, looks slightly unlikely?

My understanding is that the new GFS has had its initialisation improved by employing consultants from the Euros. This run looks like it's been on the steroids.

[nick sussex]

Erm, looks slightly unlikely?

My understanding is that the new GFS has had its initialisation improved by employing consultants from the Euros. This run looks like it's been on the steroids.

I'm quite surprised that consultants would be helping to improve the GFS, the ECM is a business and so one would think it wouldn't want to help a competitor.

 

The ECM is often lauded in the USA especially in terms of its handling of storms running up the ne USA, luckily they used the ECM for hurricane Sandy, the GFS was woeful.

 

Maybe the met community are more altruistic and are happy to help.

[Yarmy]

I'm quite surprised that consultants would be helping to improve the GFS, the ECM is a business and so one would think it wouldn't want to help a competitor.

 

The ECM is often lauded in the USA especially in terms of its handling of storms running up the ne USA, luckily they used the ECM for hurricane Sandy, the GFS was woeful.

 

Maybe the met community are more altruistic and are happy to help.

Nick, it's from Kris's thread here:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81409-gfs-upgrade-coming-november-2014/

So maybe he has more detail?

[nick sussex]

Nick, it's from Kris's thread here:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81409-gfs-upgrade-coming-november-2014/

So maybe he has more detail?

Thanks. Well it will be interesting to see if the GFS does improve after that help. Credit where its due though it does at least provide a lot of freely available public info and with four runs keeps this thread busy in the winter.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Already these charts compared to last years are eye candy!! 

 

I don't know whether they are looking better than what we would normally see them, had we have not just had the worst winter in history!

[LincolnSnowstorm]

If the parallel gfs keeps churning out runs like this i can see it becoming rather popular very quickly!

 

gfsnh-0-192.png

Yes its a big improvement on the old one!

Edited October 28, 2014 by LincolnSnowstorm

[radiohead]

The new GFS is run at a higher resolution, it was 27km now 13km (higher than the current ECMWF). I wonder will we see the benefit of that in the graphical representation of the data on Meteociel, Netweather etc. or will it require code tweaking on the websites to adjust for the new higher res output?

[Barry12]

There's been loads of runs showing a Northerly on bonfire night only to drop it, including the GFS. The GFS parallel is still going for it, so maybe they models will pick it up again. Snow on Bonfire night in Scotland?

[bluearmy]

Can we now dump the normal gfs on this thread. We now have the new one so may as well use it. The old one has become an 'ex model'. It has 'fallen off its perch'!

No sign of a compact organised vortex as we head towards the end of week 1 November. Plenty of time though.

[SylvainTV]

The new GFS is run at a higher resolution, it was 27km now 13km (higher than the current ECMWF). I wonder will we see the benefit of that in the graphical representation of the data on Meteociel, Netweather etc. or will it require code tweaking on the websites to adjust for the new higher res output?

 

It requires tweaking (quite a lot for me, been on it since 6pm ) . The 0.25° output (or even more with the Gaussian "HD" charts) will be available tomorrow on the zoomed GFS UK & other country charts ( for Meteociel at least )

[Ali1977]

Does the GFS p run at the same times as the GFS? And is this expected to go on the meteoceil site?

[Polar Maritime]

Does the GFS p run at the same times as the GFS? And is this expected to go on the meteoceil site?

 

Yes it's already on Meteociel here http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?

ech=6&code=0&mode=0&runpara=1

 

Showing a nice Northerly by the 4th, With -8c 850's touching Scotland on the 0z run  

Edited October 29, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[shaky]

Gfs following the ecm and ukmo this morning with a more amplified pattern!!!I gotta day I didn't expect this much of a change in the last 24 hours but its changed for the better if you like cold weather!!ukmo 144 hour chart looks a beauty and very similar to the parallel gfs run with a straight northerly and even a channel low!!

[IDO]

The trend remains to hint at 1-2 days of colder uppers for Nov 4-6th, mainly for the north. The GFS op says no as it cuts off the upper flow. London 850's are cool but nothing out of the ordinary:

 

 

However the GFS Parallel is in line with ECM, GEM & UKMO and has the transient trough with colder uppers:

 

D6:  GEM:   ECM: 

 

Again nothing dramatic and with 6 days to go that could be distilled further.

 

Both GEM & ECM continue to point to a pattern change to an Atlantic flow. D10 charts:

 

 

 

After that it is a westerly flow on the GFS parallel right out to D16, just continuing the trend of a westerly zonal flow. The PV is still organising itself so no turbo charged flow yet. GEFS mean at D16:

 

 

So no real change for the last 5-6 days of model output as we head towards normal November weather and wait for something to kickstart more interesting charts.

Edited October 29, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[knocker]

The transition from northerly to southerly on the 5th

 

Threr is a large difference between the ECM and GFS vis a vis the treatment of the Nor'easter on Monday. The ECM has it at 991mb and the GFS bombing 964mb to the NE of the ecm position.

Edited October 29, 2014 by knocker

[MR EXTREMES]

Yes it's already on Meteociel here http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?

ech=6&code=0&mode=0&runpara=1

 

Showing a nice Northerly by the 4th, With -8c 850's touching Scotland on the 0z run  

 

 

yep and then look at the other gfs version looks very on its own.

very interesting charts coming out this week.

ok so no serious cold for the south other than frost in clear spells over night but certainly wintry and times in scotland  more so on higher ground but no exclusively already the turn of the month is starting to show the differences to last year.

certainly a replacement of the tropical type air to a more west nw northerly and even north east flow.

so unsettled and more typical autumn conditions.

and the gem is close to something more exciting but this is an ever evolving pattern.

i think by mid to the end of nov we will see more for how winter 14/15 will progress.

 

 

if this chart had been early or mid december then white christmas would look very likely.

although nice to see this type of pattern next few runs could heights push up into greenland i would not rule anything out.

Edited October 29, 2014 by Polar Maritime
Separated quote.

[Frosty.]

There is no way i'm going to be impartial about this, i've had it up to here with mild mush so I'm very happy to say it's looking colder next week with the PFJ forced well south of the uk for a time, the Ecm 00z indicates a risk of snow for hills and not exclusively in scotland either..cold and unsettled and a lack of mild mush is good enough for me, a wintry flavour to next week and a generally unsettled outlook, especially for the northwest.

[Steve C]

There is no way i'm going to be impartial about this, i've had it up to here with mild mush so I'm very happy to say it's looking colder next week with the PFJ forced well south of the uk for a time, the Ecm 00z indicates a risk of snow for hills and not exclusively in scotland either..cold and unsettled and a lack of mild mush is good enough for me, a wintry flavour to next week and a generally unsettled outlook, especially for the northwest.

 

Yes, ECM and GFS looking more 'seasonal' but nothing unusual for the time of year. I can imagine some in the northwest wouldn't want to 'raise a glass' back to you, given the amount of rain they've had recently.

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Frosty, In a broad sense it looks like after the Northerly the Jet will remain South or over the UK. A much cooler Pm/rPm unsettled flow off the Atlantic, No full on Zonal.. Something much more akin to Autumn than we have have seen in recent weeks.

 

Edited October 29, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

 I can imagine some in the northwest wouldn't want to 'raise a glass' back to you, given the amount of rain they've had recently.

Indeed steve.

I'm just pleased to see a colder spell is on the way

 

ps..yes pm it's more like we would expect for november instead of all that mush from the azores & southern europe all the time

Edited October 29, 2014 by Frosty.

[radiohead]

It requires tweaking (quite a lot for me, been on it since 6pm ) . The 0.25° output (or even more with the Gaussian "HD" charts) will be available tomorrow on the zoomed GFS UK & other country charts ( for Meteociel at least )

 

Thank you for all your hard work!

[knocker]

The ECM anomaly is tending towards a more cyclonic analysis by D10 with the PV far more active (see jet) and a trough situated from the latter south over the UK into Europe. Temps tending below average by this time. Whether this becomes the esblished position is up for grabs as there is a hint of HP blocking from the east down the line with little amplification upstream.

 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 29TH 2014.

NEXT UPDATE THURSDAY OCTOBER 30TH 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A cold front slow moving near the South Coast will return North as a warm front later today with another very mild SSW flow developing over the UK tomorrow behind it.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Becoming cooler for all in more unsettled and sometimes windy weather with rain at times. Possibly drier in the South again later.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream across Northern Britain currently will weaken for a time and ridge North over the UK before returning South in a trough form (U Shape) early next week. It then becomes more West to East in flow across the UK moving North late in the run.

GFS Today's operational run shows Low pressure moving NE close to NW Scotland over the coming weekend with increasingly unsettled weather already over the North finding it's way down across Southern Britain too over the weekend. A trough connected to this depression then slips SE over the UK early next week introducing cooler air for a time. The general theme thereafter is for a North/South split to setup again with generally mild WSW winds and rain at times across the UK, heaviest in the North with the driest and mildest weather towards the South and East.

THE GFS ENSEMBLES.  The GFS Ensembles feature this pattern too with if anything more of an attack of High pressure into Southern Britain at the end of the run bringing quiet and dry weather further North across Britain by then with no doubt some fog and frost patches at night in an otherwise mild pattern.

UKMO. UKMO today shows Low pressure exiting NE over Scandinavia early next week with colder North winds around a trough back SW from it's centre over the UK eventually forming a secondary Low near SW Wngland by Tuesday. As a result all areas would become unsettled and colder with rain at times early next week.

THE FAX CHARTS  The Fax Charts show another marked and unseasonably mild warm sector developing over the UK later this week between Low pressure to the NW and High pressure over Europe. The Atlantic fronts then are shown to make inroads across the UK at the weekend with cloud and rain bringing a steady drop in temperatures over the mild South then.

GEM  GEM today shows a steadily deteriorating pattern into colder and more unsettled weather for all areas following the mild pattern over the next two or three day. This means that as Low pressure under 1000mbs covers the entire UK for much of next week from this run and with it's positioning over or towards the East of the UK colder air is filtered down across the UK at times with resultant strong winds and rain for all.


NAVGEM NAVGEM shows the unsettled phase moving down from the NW at the weekend and start to next week a temporary phase as a strong ridge moving SE across Britin from the NW midweek brings more settled weather back with mist, fog and patchy frost at night in the South with a mild SW flow following across the NW.  

ECM . ECM shows much more depth to the more unsettled and colder conditions next week as Low pressure slips down across the UK from the NW next week and is slow to clear the East. As a result further deep Atlantic low pressure is able to join the main low complex from the Atlantic to set up a deep Low close to the NW with strong winds and rain at times for all in much colder conditions continuing later next week.


THE ECM ENSEMBLES  The ECM Ensembles today show a typical Autumn pattern and while not as harsh with the extent of Low pressure as it's operational it does show Low pressure to the North of the UK, High pressure over the Azores and a broad and unstable westerly flow across the UK bringing spells of rain and showers to all areas with temperatures close to average.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There are still mixed messages from the models on the 7-14 day prospects shown between the outputs this morning.

MY THOUGHTS  There seems good agreement this morning that after the upcoming warm phase across Southern Britain the pattern supporting this recurring theme may well be broken by early next week as a change in Jet profile allows Low pressure to be driven SE across the UK with much colder air entrained and outbreaks of rain, showers and strong winds. In the term beyond that things become much more confused between the output with reasonable support for a North/South split developing in response to the Jet Stream returning North again and alowing pressure to rise from the South once more. This would bring a mild West or SW flow with rain at times to the North and west while the South and East of Britain see mild and drier conditions. However, this is not a definitive given as there is also some support for a continued much colder and unsettled theme remaining in place for many areas as ECM (including it's ensembles ) hold the Jet Flow much further South and feeds strong and unstable Westerly winds over all areas throughout and with the UKMO 144hr chart looking as if it could follow the ECM route none of these solutions should be discounted. So in essence I think I can reliably say that Autumn proper could well be felt across Southern Britain next week as colder air temperatures along with stronger winds and frequent bursts of rain and showers enhance the feel of chill while the North also feels somewhat cooler while maintaining the unsettled feel these areas have felt for some while now. The differences in solutions all hinge on the Jet Stream forecasts and it is this that determines how the models look this morning with the Euros preferring to hold the flow further South while GFS wants to push it back North more quickly after it's diversion South early next week. We will have to see how this pattern develops in the coming days.

[IDO]

The GFS parallel run for the 06z would be very nice (if it was right) in 4-6 weeks times:

 

  

 

The old GFS moving in the right direction: 

 

Obviously a while to go before specifics are confirmed but a couple of cool/colder days likely.

 

Nice to see that the Parallel GFS has picked the pattern out with the ECM (& GEM) before the old GFS did. Gives us hope that we will have another model to aid predictions this coming Winter.

Edited October 29, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Frosty.]

This is more like it, unlike the 00z which just showed a trough slowly filling in situ and no injection of cold air, the 6z shunts the trough further east which opens the floodgates for a surge of arctic air to penetrate south across the uk similar to the ecm 00z, cold enough for snow in the north and on hills further south, notice the kink in the isobars to the north of the uk which means a trough forming in the arctic flow and sweeping south pepping up the snow risk across high ground of scotland in particular, perhaps the highlands will have a decent covering next week.

 

Mild mush, you are the weakest link..goodbye