White Christmas 2014

[ARTDEMOLE]

Still like 20% chance/ even it is just frost.

[mountain shadow]

Chances of a white Christmas now looking very very slim.

If the 0z are similar tomorrow morning its all over.

[be cause]

         

[Danielvn]

Chances of a white Christmas now looking very very slim.

If the 0z are similar tomorrow morning its all over.

 

It's a brave person that takes charts as fact 10 days out

[mountain shadow]

It's a brave person that takes charts as fact 10 days out

No Daniel, just basing it on what I see. Today's runs firming up and pretty guaranteeing no white Christmas South of the English Midlands.

 

Further North and West perhaps still a small chance of a technical white Christmas with a few flakes from a passing shower if a cold sector is in place, certainly no chance of anything deep crisp at low levels anywhere.

 

It would take a miracle for a turn around now, even at 10 days out.

 

Obviously places above 1000 feet or so may be different.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

From Weather Network UK

[Summer Sun]

BBC now saying we may get a burst of colder air just approach Christmas day, this could of course change and they are saying any snow is only really likely on the hills in the north

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/30485726

[IanR]

''dont get the sledges out...... just yet''  

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Can see, and my guess is that Xmas day will be dominated by polar maritime air, useless for low levels in the south,

 

my guess is a white Xmas for north and west Scotland, for England and Wales over 300m

[4wd]

Computer says No.... 

[mountain shadow]

No change today.

 

No chance South of the Midlands, perhaps more of a chance the further North and West you get, usual altitude caveats.

[Mark Neal.]

Given todays output potential to the NW & Scotland to see Wintry Showers around the big day! Drier to the South. 

[Summer Sun]

Met office now suggesting a short lived change to cooler conditions during the middle of next week so maybe some snow for parts of Scotland

 

UK Outlook for Sunday 21 Dec 2014 to Tuesday 30 Dec 2014:

 

Rather unsettled at first, with the heaviest and most persistent rain towards the northwest and west. Best of the dry weather for central and southern areas, though often rather cloudy. Temperatures will be near or slightly above average and overnight fog patches are possible. During the middle of next week a change to colder conditions is likely, with wintry showers affecting hills and perhaps lower levels across Scotland. This will be short lived, with a return to milder, unsettled conditions by the end of that week. Thereafter, through the latter part of the month, it is likely that there will be a continuation of changeable weather, with Atlantic frontal zones interspersed with colder, showery conditions. Windy at times, with the risk of gales. More settled in the south at times

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Dorsetbred]

Story of cold this iwnter is ...This will be short lived....

Edited December 16, 2014 by Dorsetbred

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Latest chances of a white Xmas from Weather Network UK.

[V for Very Cold]

Latest chances of a white Xmas from Weather Network UK.

B5DOC38CQAAGcRc.png

well that's a pretty sight to see in this grey mush we have today

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

well that's a pretty sight to see in this grey mush we have today

I think the chances have increased slightly from the last update they did on the 15th.

[SMU]

Fingers crossed!!!

 

Date Details Stake Result   17/12/2014 Single To Win
Inverness @ 7/4
White Christmas
White Christmas 2014 £23.00 Pending   17/12/2014 Single To Win
Belfast @ 5/2
White Christmas
White Christmas 2014 £38.50 Pending   17/12/2014 Single To Win
Glasgow @ 5/2
White Christmas
White Christmas 2014 £83.50 Pending

[Hocus Pocus]

 

Fingers crossed!!!

 

Date Details Stake Result   17/12/2014 Single To Win

Inverness @ 7/4

White Christmas

White Christmas 2014 £23.00 Pending   17/12/2014 Single To Win

Belfast @ 5/2

White Christmas

White Christmas 2014 £38.50 Pending   17/12/2014 Single To Win

Glasgow @ 5/2

White Christmas

White Christmas 2014 £83.50 Pending

 

Someone call Gamblers anonymous please.

[SMU]

Someone call Gamblers anonymous please.

 

Computer says yes.

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/192_35.gif

[Gavin Hannah]

Computer says yes.

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/192_35.gif

 

That looks a bit conservative if you ask me...   

[mountain shadow]

If it does down turn out to be a technical white Christmas in the North and West then big up to the models which would have shown the potential from a long way out.

[damianslaw]

It will be Saturday before confidence in likely conditions on Christmas Day surface, at present it remains outside of reliable timeframe. However, the trends from the models over the past 2-4 days is for a colder evolution taking place on the day itself (Christmas eve over Scotland) and it is certainly worth a bet on a white Christmas in say Aberdeen or Glasgow.

 

I remember 2004, GFS in particular picked up signal for cold NW blast Christmas day well beyond realms of reliable timeframe and stuck with it, on this occasion with have all three major models going for the colder northerly theme, so no reason why we should see changes in there outputs from such a scenario over the coming days.

 

I commented yesterday on how Christmas is a pivotal time when we often see marked changes from conditions of late Nov- mid Dec. In yesteryear we have seen Christmas Day itself herald a change to colder weather, 2004 was a temporary blip, but 2005 saw a bit of a longer lasting cold spell occur, 2000 notably so, with a week of cold, 1985 also another good example with a snowy 26th/27th for many. 2008 was interesting following a similar pattern to this December, first 2 weeks were colder mind, but a pronounced mild spell occurred mid month breaking on the day itself with a cold end to the month. Conversely we have seen cold weather break over Christmas-new year period, notably so in 2010, but also 1981 though it was temporary, 1995 also a good example but again temporary cold came back late in Jan.

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Met office blog: Dreaming of a White Christmas?

 

With about a week to go before Christmas Day, we are going to look at the likelihood of a white Christmas – will we be waking up to a picturesque covering of snow on the big day? So far, December has seen some large fluctuations in the weather, with spells of wetter, milder conditions interspersed with colder, sunnier conditions with temperatures closer to average. This pattern looks set to continue over the next few days with some very mild but wet weather in places replaced by colder but sunnier weather by Friday with scattered showers. Similarly to recent days, any snow is likely to be restricted to higher ground across northern hills.

 

A return to largely mild weather is expected from Sunday (21^st), with cloudy, damp conditions for many parts. Throughout the period, northern Scotland is likely to stay somewhat colder with further wintry showers over higher ground. As we head into Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty – which is as you’d expect this far out. The strongest signal currently shown in the computer models is for the colder, showery weather to return across Britain, with showers most frequent across the north and east. But will we see any snow?

 

At this point, the most likely areas that will see some of the white stuff will be across higher ground in the north, with rain at lower levels. Temperatures will be fairly close to average and there will be some frosty nights under clear skies.

It is important to note, however, that there’s still a chance we could see very different weather for Christmas Day. Here at the Met Office, we look at a range of computer model outcomes and a very small number of them do suggest a different picture, giving a forecast of stormy weather across the UK.

 

Although this is currently at odds with the strongest signal from the forecast, we will closely monitor this and other possible solutions over the coming days to see if the likelihoods change. So with just over a week to go until Christmas Day, it looks most likely that the majority of us won’t be seeing a white Christmas. Because of the uncertainty of long range forecasts, however, we recommend staying up-to-date with our website for the latest information on our forecasts and warnings.

[The PIT]

Tonights GFS and ECM suggest a cold dry day away from areas exposed to north westerly winds whcih may get showers. Looks like frost will the major white player.