Early winter hopes and chat

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I agree with John.

 

In my opinion any forecast that goes into precise detail is a waste of time and is not based on any scientific evidence. This is because scientifically it is impossible and you cannot do this for 20 days out let alone months. A typical example of the type of forecast im referring to is below.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Seasonal-outlook

 

Utter tripe referring to a HP to the E of the UK in early December and SE,ly winds.

So when we hear meteorologists telling us its not an 'exact' science Dave, where do we go from there?  It wasn't that long ago when certain scientific establishments poo poo'd the sun's influence on climate/weather, how things change.  So one shouldn't be closed imo 

 

BFTP

[johnholmes]

I doubt anyone in the meteorological world, amateur or professional is 'closed'. By the very nature of how science areas work the professional side may well be slow to adopt ideas that we as amateurs embrace sooner. Sure UK Met were much slower to adopt some ideas seen on this web site but then it seems a bit pointless when, having researched the idea they now embrace it and move forward, they still get criticised for not being detailed enough. I do remember when I first became a forecaster that UK Met with its research side into so called long term forecasting, in those days 1 month ahead, used nothing more than how that research team felt the jet stream would behave. So in 40 years or so the science has moved on a good deal. It will continue to do so, albeit slowly, too slow for many of we amateurs no doubt.

But I return again to my main comment about LRF outputs. Beyond 12-15 days and no one, amateur or professional, has enough data or knowledge to do other than predict in very general terms what the weather patterns will be on a seasonal basis. To suggest they can would be dishonest. Equally those who suggest that, for example, heavy snow and severe frosts are likely giving specific dates some 10-12 weeks in advance are 'pretending' to have greater knowledge and certainty than is really available to them.

But it is fun to read their wintry prospects as most on here want to read that cold not mild is the most likely output. I do not pretend to understand some of the theories propounded by some folk but do not decry their predictions unless as stated before they start to use specific dates or time intervals for many weeks even months in advance. Only by trying out new theories will science, including meteorology, advance. Where would we be without the occasional Eureka from the bath or wherever otherwise?

Edited November 2, 2014 by johnholmes

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Thanks John an excellent and interesting post, closed may be too strong.  I do think though imo that when external forcing is at certain positions or activity that weather 'events' can be picked up on.  Anyway, here's to hopefully a more 'wintry' winter in the UK but more importantly that the ski season is tops...Sauze D'oulx here I come this season, first time since 09.

 

BFTP

[stratty]

Thanks John an excellent and interesting post, closed may be too strong.  I do think though imo that when external forcing is at certain positions or activity that weather 'events' can be picked up on.  Anyway, here's to hopefully a more 'wintry' winter in the UK but more importantly that the ski season is tops...Sauze D'oulx here I come this season, first time since 09.

 

BFTP

 

..............you wait till the Meto have their £97000000 laptop working , with that amount of money spent on 'forecasting' the weather then maybe we will be more accurately knowing what the weather will be like in a ?????? time..................

[Dancerwithwings]

Excellent read as always John

 

40 years of progress still brings us to the shortest and fortunately the most accurate weather is 5-7days anything after that is down to the gods, OK!...(trends/pattens).

 

I tend to agree with the new theories thing and even with all this forthcoming computer power one thing is certain,

 

Is that in the next forty years we will be still discussing (in winter or autumn even) whether it will be snowing in 10 days time...... at 2pm

[johnholmes]

It is almost impossible to say just how accurate forecasting will become in the next 40 years. I know some of you are fairly sceptical of data that shows how much better, for instance, UK Met is than 40 years or so ago but it is true. 1974 was the era of a Fax chart totally hand produced using the 'thickness chart, again hand drawn, to try and predict where approximately the main low and high centres might be in 24 hours time. From the thickness lines one could then make a fair stab at where the active fronts might be.The actual Fax chart would then be completely filled in. In the early 70's the TV forecasters, George Cowling, Jack Scott and Bert Ford, before the days of Ian, John and Michael would then tell the tv audience what weather to expect tomorrow. A VERY far from detailed outlook might then be suggested for the 24 hours after that. Now we have fairly accurate forecasts in a fair amount of detail routinely out to 3 or 5 days ahead.

The statistics do show that 5 day forecasting now is as accurate as the 24 hour one 40 years ago. Okay some of you will quibble at this but that is the overall idea of how much weather forecasts have improved in that time. I have always suggested that the next 20-40 years will see much slower improvements in short scale forecasting accuracy for the first 5 maybe even out to 10 days this century even. But they will improve.

Whether accurate detail on when/where/how much rain will fall on any particular location at 5-10 days is something I am not sure about. I find it hard to see just what large improvements needed in 3 dimensional meteorology can solve the incredibly difficult job of working out the atmosphere's humidity profiles in enough detail to be able to do that.

What is for sure that even when Paul hands over the baton to his successor, long may that be in coming, Net Weather and other amateur web sites will still be full of incredibly enthusiastic amateurs with I hope a sprinkling of ex professionals making such sites a hugely interesting place to chat about the weather. And as ever the amount of knowledge displayed by so many of you with no formal training will continue to surprise and delight old ex forecasters like me.

I will watch it from on high, or perhaps trying to see it from below!

Edited November 2, 2014 by johnholmes

[hillbilly]

It is almost impossible to say just how accurate forecasting will become in the next 40 years. I know some of you are fairly sceptical of data that shows how much better, for instance, UK Met is than 40 years or so ago but it is true. 1974 was the era of a Fax chart totally hand produced using the 'thickness chart, again hand drawn, to try and predict where approximately the main low and high centres might be in 24 hours time. From the thickness lines one could then make a fair stab at where the active fronts might be.The actual Fax chart would then be completely filled in. In the early 70's the TV forecasters, George Cowling, Jack Scott and Bert Ford, before the days of Ian, John and Michael would then tell the tv audience what weather to expect tomorrow. A VERY far from detailed outlook might then be suggested for the 24 hours after that. Now we have fairly accurate forecasts in a fair amount of detail routinely out to 3 or 5 days ahead.

The statistics do show that 5 day forecasting now is as accurate as the 24 hour one 40 years ago. Okay some of you will quibble at this but that is the overall idea of how much weather forecasts have improved in that time. I have always suggested that the next 20-40 years will see much slower improvements in short scale forecasting accuracy for the first 5 maybe even out to 10 days this century even. But they will improve.

Whether accurate detail on when/where/how much rain will fall on any particular location at 5-10 days is something I am not sure about. I find it hard to see just what large improvements needed in 3 dimensional meteorology can solve the incredibly difficult job of working out the atmosphere's humidity profiles in enough detail to be able to do that.

What is for sure that even when Paul hands over the baton to his successor, long may that be in coming, Net Weather and other amateur web sites will still be full of incredibly enthusiastic amateurs with I hope a sprinkling of ex professionals making such sites a hugely interesting place to chat about the weather. And as ever the amount of knowledge displayed by so many of you with no formal training will continue to surprise and delight old ex forecasters like me.

I will watch it from on high, or perhaps trying to see it from below!

I agree entirely with your summation John,i am no forcaster ,not even amateur,but as a farmer and builder I take note of the forcast maybe more than a lot of you out there and there is no harder forcast than here in the pennines where even now it can be terribly wrong even on a next day forcast.I don't think there is any doubt the 5 day forcast is much more accurate than it used to be but forcasting has not moved on as far as you may have imagined from 30 years ago and I am sure the new computer will be a big step forward to more accuracy.What I do know is some of the forcasts for the upcoming winter have not made me laugh so much since I last watched Harry Enfield !!!

[feb1991blizzard]

One of the best states of the Atmosphere going into a November regarding analogues, opi etc since I got back into winter weather again in 09, I am tempted to nail my colours to the mast for a cold winter already, if I do though, you just know it will all collapse so I wont just yet, I am extremely confident though.

[Barry12]

According to this:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html

We'll have a mild winter up until February, then a cold march.

 

LOL BAD MODEL

[Mark Neal.]

Can't be taken too seriously, pinch of salt required. CFS v2 has picked on some patterns before and come up trumps, but also has gone off one one, a few times! 

[Yarmy]

Not really Barry as they picked up on the summer deluge of 2012 and the bitterly cold March of 2013, I think the record of CFS v2 personally is pretty good really.

Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy though, isn't it. Have you added up all the times it was wrong?

(I am making no assumptions about winter, by the way. What will be, will be.)

[Snowman.]

While I respect the CFS it can get things awfully wrong.

 

Well here's hopes to a decent winter and lets not hope for a repeat of those awful storms of last year either

[Hocus Pocus]

The problem with the CFS is the wild swings that occur even taking into account the individual runs in isolation.

[radiohead]

Second half of the month could be interesting...

 

[Nouska]

Not really Barry as they picked up on the summer deluge of 2012 and the bitterly cold March of 2013, I think the record of CFS v2 personally is pretty good really.

 

At the same timescale as we are referring to now, the CFS was hopeless.

 

The two forecast events you mention, one month prior.

 

 

Edited November 3, 2014 by Paul

[feb1991blizzard]

I have to say I didn't understand all the criticism of the CFS when I first started using it, looking back at the runs pre 09/10 and 10/11, they didn't do to badly, at least they latched on 1-2 months out anyway, beginning to think that was a fluke though, I think its been rubbish since and don't rate it at all now, GLOSEA5 performed well last winter, IF I was going to rely purely on NWP for seasonal winter forecasts then over next month or 2 then that's the one I would keep my eye on, however, I would rather rely on the experts on here on the strat / technical threads (or at least combine that info with any seasonal NWP products), they have never let me down so far in all the time ive been on here.

[EML Network]

I thought we'd gotten past the debate about the CFS etc. 

 

I'm not surprised to see the GFS + 384 chart today, the first FI chart of the season showing a nice easterly setting up. 

 

I've said in previous posts and elsewhere that it's quite apparent that we are going to get at least one decent cold spell nationwide before XMas, it's unlikely to be the one that is showing on the GFS this morning, but I can't see how any of the Pro's on here can fail to see how things are shaping up. 

 

A slack Atlantic, Low pressure systems stalling out West or indeed coming very close to undercutting and a distinct lack of lows riding high up into Iceland, that smacks of an impending - NAO.

 

unless there's a big turn around in the next week, I am highly confident of a decent cold spell effecting our shores within the next 3-6 weeks

[Summer Sun]

cooling climate no longer posts here (he explains why in the below link) but he's offered his thought's on winter over on TWO

 

 

As far as this winter goes I have already made my feelings known from back in August, through September and October that a very cold perhaps severe winter is I think on the cards for northwest Europe and the UK. Now into November and I feel more confident than ever especially with much weaker and interrupted vortex, SAI index OPI index AO Index for October weak El Nino likely through the winter, negative QBO increased BDC, greater Ozone and hopefully a weakening solar input.

 

Already we are seeing tropospheric wave 2 activity plus a forecasted strengthening of the wave 1 although this is just a forecast at present. I personally think it is only a question of time before the pattern flips to one of cold and with northern block being more prolific this winter and a larger and stronger Siberian high some truly severe winter weather could very well be on the cards during the three winter months.

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=641020#post641020

[Polar Maritime]

Cairngorm Mountain @CairngormMtn

Top Station Weather; Snowing heavily at present. -1.0C, 25MPH, ESE. Visibilty poor in the showers.

 

[sebastiaan1973]

From Rutger, weerwoord

http://www.weerwoord.be/includes/forum_read.php?id=2027175&tid=2026485

 

Highest SAI since the start.

[carinthian]

Just thinking back before the start of the New Year snow storm 78/79. The days before Christmas were fairly mild with a westerly . Soon after a Arctic High strengthened with a undercut of very cold air pushed SW from the Baltic Region and the developing blizzards became pronounced across Southern Britain. I remember it starting to snow on New Years Eve very fine powdery stuff that blew around. When we left the village pub around 2 am in the morning, walking home was one of the coldest experiences of my life, a full NEly blast with blowing snow. The next day dawned with the fields still green. The snow had been blown off with drifts in the hedges and all around the buildings. ThE cold of that night soon sobered you up alright. Well into 1979 the cold and snow persisted, the longest since 63.

C

Edited November 3, 2014 by carinthian

[throwoff]

Anyone would think it is January with all the people writing off winter!

[terrier]

Just noticed gav has updated his November outlook. And it covers first part of December looking like November will be another mild month. With early dec following suit. Yes we may be seeing some positives for cold. But surely we can't ignore these models that are once again going for a strong nao. Also nothing in met office updates to suggest anything cold in long term outlook. Although I know this does change.

[Polar Maritime]

Just thinking back before the start of the New Year snow storm 78/79. The days before Christmas were fairly mild with a westerly . Soon after a Arctic High strengthened with a undercut of very cold air pushed SW from the Baltic Region and the developing blizzards became pronounced across Southern Britain. I remember it starting to snow on New Years Eve very fine powdery stuff that blew around. When we left the village pub around 2 am in the morning, walking home was one of the coldest experiences of my life, a full NEly blast with blowing snow. The next day dawned with the fields still green. The snow had been blown off with drifts in the hedges and all around the buildings. ThE cold of that night soon sobered you up alright. Well into 1979 the cold and snow persisted, the longest since 63.

C

 

Yes C, That's pretty much how i remember it. The drifting was pretty much as severe as March 2013 with the fields stripped. 

[carinthian]

Yes C, That's pretty much how i remember it. The drifting was pretty much as severe as March 2013 with the fields stripped.

Yep PM, winter 78/79 will live long in my memory of UK winters with 62/63,&69. The last 10 have been in the Eastern Alps to get my snow fix at 1650m asl. Hope you guys get as much snow as we did last year. I have a good feeling for you that its your turn!

C