Early winter hopes and chat

[Daniel*]

I won't take anyone's word for it - I think the Synoptics will be more in favour of a wintery pattern. In recent years except from 09-10 winter does take some time to get going, december may not be the coldest winter month but personally I find that to be most appropiate for Snow.

I'm sure Scottish mountains will be blitzed, yet again. The Ski industry has been doing pretty remarkable when we have endured cold rain and gales they get blizzards! bit spoilt

[lassie23]

Just been looking at the Met Office contingency forecast from last year, all over the place and, just before Winter started, it said "indications are that December will most likely be colder than average." and "As discussed in the temperature section, forecast models favour a negative NAO pattern this winter, with high pressure areas more likely to be centred over or close to the UK. As in all seasons, this pre-dominance of anticyclones is likely to lead to drier-than-normal conditions across the country". That was what it said in November, in October it was the opposite.

So all the models keep flip flopping and we probably do so again! If the majority are still showing cold in three weeks time, we may be on to something!

[Cheshire Freeze]

I won't take anyone's word for it - I think the Synoptics will be more in favour of a wintery pattern. In recent years except from 09-10 winter does take some time to get going, december may not be the coldest winter month but personally I find that to be most appropiate for Snow.

I'm sure Scottish mountains will be blitzed, yet again. The Ski industry has been doing pretty remarkable when we have endured cold rain and gales they get blizzards! bit spoilt

 

December is definitely the best month for snow IMO. Shorter days and tends to be able to stick around for longer if the temps permit.

[snowy weather]

First winter outlook from Gavin Partridge, Met office going for a very mild winter where as Jamstec is going for a very cold one

 

 

Summary of the models 18 minutes 30 seconds in

What emphasis do the models place on previous winters when forecasting the oncoming one? 

[snowking]

Just a thought RE: glosea

I wonder whether it's most recent iteration had any sort of recent historic input in its initialisation phase? Jut going off the back of the Sept 13 forecast being a little northern blocking heavy (of course with usual caveat - it's a height forecast not an SLP one) following 12/13, and then this years resembling 13/14.

Nothing concrete with a very small sample, but I'll try and remember to re-visit this the other side of the winter.

SK

[Eugene]

Only 1 out of the last 6 winters has been unmemorable - 2011/12

The rest stick in my mind

08/09 Feb snow

09/10 Dec and Jan snow

10/11 Dec cold

12/13 Jan snow and cold March to follow winter.

13/14 Super wet

14/15 Back to cold?

 

Back to 1988/89

[Nick L]

What emphasis do the models place on previous winters when forecasting the oncoming one? 

 

Emphasis in what sense? I'm no modelling expert, but I'd imagine little to none based on the actual weather from the winter. There may be some tweaks to the model based on the performance, but that's about it I reckon. 

[damianslaw]

Just been looking at the Met Office contingency forecast from last year, all over the place and, just before Winter started, it said "indications are that December will most likely be colder than average." and "As discussed in the temperature section, forecast models favour a negative NAO pattern this winter, with high pressure areas more likely to be centred over or close to the UK. As in all seasons, this pre-dominance of anticyclones is likely to lead to drier-than-normal conditions across the country". That was what it said in November, in October it was the opposite.

 

 

Yes the Met office called a drier than average winter in November last year - we ended up with the wettest on record. Its not had the best results in recent years. I always think the most pivotal time in winter is around Christmas-New Year. Given the models call the winter, a month in advance of this pivotal period makes them prone to large margins of error.  The northern hemisphere usually takes until the New Year before it gets into its true winter base state (exceptions occur, last year for instance and others such as 1988/89 and 89/90, usually when there is a strong temp gradient between arctic and pacific as we enter December, currently the temp gradients are not very strong, though we have 2 months still to go and a strong SW-NE tracking jet could enable this to occur, but the signs at this stage are not there.

[Polar Maritime]

The first proper Snow of the season forecast for the Scottish Mountains by the end of the week.

 

Edited September 30, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Daniel Williams]

The first proper Snow of the season forecast for the Scottish Mountains by the end of the week.

 

 

 

a good start!

[Ravelin]

I'm sure Scottish mountains will be blitzed, yet again. The Ski industry has been doing pretty remarkable when we have endured cold rain and gales they get blizzards! bit spoilt

 

Although snow depths were amazing last year the Ski Industry up here had a good season despite the weather. What you really want is a huge dump followed by nice calm conditions so they can get it pisted and the skiers can get out and enjoy it. What we had last year was a procession of gales and snow high up (the lowest resort, at Lecht, had an awful season). All the resorts had problems at times opening due to wind, lifts being buried or road access. Even when they did get open, although piste conditions were mostly good, wind and low cloud was often a problem. I can usually only get skiing at the weekends and only managed 3 days last year, usually taking a risk due to the forecast (I'm only 1.5hrs drive from Glenshee so no biggie if I need to abort or cut short). All 3 days were OK but I skied in high winds, cloud and rain/sleet/snow at times. All I ask for this year is one blue sky, powder day, please!

[cheeky_monkey]

Back to 1988/89

Bank!!

[Kiwi]

 

 All 3 days were OK but I skied in high winds, cloud and rain/sleet/snow at times. All I ask for this year is one blue sky, powder day, please!

 

Yes a blue sky day without wind would be very nice please!!

I've  done a long weekend winter Munro's trip for the last 5 years. Of the 20 odd mts I've "bagged" on those trips I've not seen blue sky at the top of any of them.

Last year was close..... 3/4 of the way up Ben Lawers, blue sky and sunshine......but sods law... the howling gale made it impossible to get to the top.

[chionomaniac]

With tomorrow being the first of October, we are getting into the business end of Autumn - an important time for the precursers for the following winter to be determined. So far we know precious little that we can confidently predict the state of going into winter. I would limit the variables of sun activity and the descending negative QBO state as those that we can have a good grasp of at this point. Even the ENSO forecasts are variable with the possibility of a weak El Nino remaining favourite. So that leaves us unable to firmly point towards what winter will bring.

 

However, October is an important month, and many conditions that can possibly determine winter will be set during this month. So we will need to look out for the rate of snowfall over the NH landmasses (the snow advance index  - SAI), the southern extent of this snowfall (the snow cover extent index- SCE) and also how this will affect the perturbations of the polar vortex during this month ( the October Pressure Index). Further monitoring of the extent of Arctic Ice Gain and the main Ocean patterns including an updated Enso state and atmospheric response can be gathered by the end of the month, and hopefully by then we will have some clues as to what type of winter these suggest.

 

But all of this can be overridden by the state of the stratosphere which is why the monitoring of this during November will be critical in helping us determine any forecast for winter. I certainly feel a little bit more optomistic than this time last year, but at this point it will be too early to suggest too much.

 

Roll on October!

[Bogman]

 

Although snow depths were amazing last year the Ski Industry up here had a good season despite the weather. What you really want is a huge dump followed by nice calm conditions so they can get it pisted and the skiers can get out and enjoy it. What we had last year was a procession of gales and snow high up (the lowest resort, at Lecht, had an awful season). All the resorts had problems at times opening due to wind, lifts being buried or road access. Even when they did get open, although piste conditions were mostly good, wind and low cloud was often a problem. I can usually only get skiing at the weekends and only managed 3 days last year, usually taking a risk due to the forecast (I'm only 1.5hrs drive from Glenshee so no biggie if I need to abort or cut short). All 3 days were OK but I skied in high winds, cloud and rain/sleet/snow at times. All I ask for this year is one blue sky, powder day, please!

 

Hehe.

Sorry, couldn't resist.

[Stormyking]

I think someone mentioned this the other day,  but I been looking at Archives through all of our cold winters, and the majority of Octobers do seem have high pressure over us or close to us in most of them, and all seem rather dry!

[Gavin Hannah]

I think someone mentioned this the other day,  but I been looking at Archives through all of our cold winters, and the majority of Octobers do seem have high pressure over us or close to us in most of them, and all seem rather dry!

 

 

Well, we may have burned that ticket with the September we have just had. Driest on record and I don't see two months out of three of autumn being drier than average.. but you never know.

[NorthYorksWeather]

CFS is up to its usual tricks and churning out a mouth watering prediction for February. IF ONLY.........

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=3414&mode=0&carte=0&run=3

 

[bryan629]

Latest SAI

 

Sunday                                                                      Monday

 

Not too shabby at all, Canada doing pretty well too. 

 

 

Chino, great comment above by the way...

 

This image was posted on twitter today , is this unusual for the time of year

 

 

 

 

 

On another note the Met office contingency planners don`t inspire confidence at the moment ......http://www.gavsweathervids.com/flash.html ppffttt

Edited September 30, 2014 by bryan629

[chionomaniac]

Latest SAI

 

Sunday                                                                      Monday

prvsnow_asiaeurope sun.gifcursnow_asiaeurope mon.gif

 

Not too shabby at all, Canada doing pretty well too. 

 

 

This image was posted on twitter today , is this unusual for the time of year

 

 

ByyGW7UIgAAwGPB.png

 

Regarding the SAI, I have read from those that have lookes at the correlation that this still exists from around week 39 in the year until week 43, so that if the snow starts to advance prior to the 1st October then the correlation will be pretty similar.

 

Regarding the miniscule above average 30hPa temperature during the seasonal autumnal drop off, I suspect it matters very little. November is the first critical month.......

[terrier]

Latest SAI

 

Sunday                                                                      Monday

prvsnow_asiaeurope sun.gifcursnow_asiaeurope mon.gif

 

Not too shabby at all, Canada doing pretty well too. 

 

 

Chino, great comment above by the way...

 

This image was posted on twitter today , is this unusual for the time of year

 

 

ByyGW7UIgAAwGPB.png

 

 

 

On another note the Met office contingency planners don`t inspire confidence at the moment ......http://www.gavsweathervids.com/flash.html ppffttt

the noises coming from the met office don't inspire me either for winter. There update for winter is very similar to last year. And I just have a feeling we may see another winter to last year. Although we may see a few sharp short burst of cold. Guess time will tell. But if there next update shows same I will start to sway towards another winter like last year.

[legritter]

Well first off lets hope theres no repeat of last winter ,misery loss of life and financial loss for many .And i,m not going to be gready and wish for the winter from hell ,[regards blizzards and record low temperatures for three months ]but hoping for a spread of snowy weather and some record low temp but short lasting .to make it interesting perhaps some good old english channel lows ,with some lows moving across us further north to keep most posters happy .a nice run of polar lows and some Good lake effect snow .A nice share of the snow for all posters ,well im not asking for alot .But one thing is certain ,we have no clue at the present how this winter is going to pan out ,just cast our minds back to early last December and not one Model was on the money ,no long range forecast , but what was round the corner was Mother nature at its most spectacular .but im pretty sure that this winter will be a noteworthy one ,but for what reasons im not sure .But the weather generally is in a very interesting mode 

[Gord]

Lots of interesting dicussion in this thread.

 

Last winter has certainly given me a more sober and possibly more realistic approach to this winter in terms of cold and snow. I think in hindsight the rude bump back down to a very sodden Earth has done me good in keeping my knowledge and expectations more reasonable.

 

I've been reminding myself of October 2008...to me, the last week of that month was the start of a change from milder winters to more frequent cold spells. The following 2 and a half winters were pretty good.

 

It's also the 3 year anniversary tomorrow of that extraordinary 1st October where temperatures got into the high 20s. That along with the brief snowy spell in February are the only 2 moments I can remember of Autumn 2011 and Winter 2011/12.

 

October is where it always begins for me. Of course, it tell you little about the months ahead but it usually comes with the first light frost and it's when you really start to notice that the air is cooling off.

 

It's going to be interesting to see what this winter brings...hopefully drier this year!

Edited September 30, 2014 by Gord

[Stormyking]

Well, we may have burned that ticket with the September we have just had. Driest on record and I don't see two months out of three of autumn being drier than average.. but you never know.

As you say you never know, I have a good feelling about this winter

[stewfox]

 autumn rarely starts in september and winter rarely starts in december but spring usually starts in march and summer usually starts in june

 

December is one month where the CET has fallen last 30yrs 

 

October is where it always begins for me. Of course, it tell you little about the months ahead but it usually comes with the first light frost and it's when you really start to notice that the air is cooling off.

 

It's going to be interesting to see what this winter brings...hopefully drier this year!

 

October 85 was very warm as  a student I remember it well then we had Feb 86