Early winter hopes and chat

[Yarmy]

OPI forecast is out, boys and girls.

[gsteruk]

The folks at exacta are certain winter starts next week. I would ask them based on what on their fb page but I seem to be blocked for commenting that it's the same forecast every year from them lol

[pip22]

For Europe to cool down rapidly, we need either a Northerly, North-easterly from Scandinavia/Russia or a North-Westerly winds straight from Greenland. I prefer a Northerly or an Easterly straight from Siberia so Europe would be freeze up straight away.

Edited November 10, 2014 by pip22

[Winter Cold]

haha, yeah dont worry, it was mainly a tongue in cheek commment.....i know its a lot easier for them

[meathead]

That it then? Looks like winter has been cancelled again. How come every year the charts show so much promise then completely change at the last minute. It's like someone is teasing us.

[gsteruk]

Still a while to go, things change all the time, still keeping my fingers crossed!

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

I seem to recall Joe 'Laminate' Floori tweeting lots of exciting and very positive comments regarding the winters of 09/10/11 before they occurred but I haven't see anything regarding our forthcoming winter, not that this is a guarantee but a little disconcerting nonetheless

[Timmytour]

That it then? Looks like winter has been cancelled again. How come every year the charts show so much promise then completely change at the last minute. It's like someone is teasing us.

It's rarely a straightforward path to the kind of set up so many of us want.  It always seems to be be bought up, dropped, bought back again, dropped again, then bought back even stronger!

i remain confident this is the case here and a good deal of the UK will see freezing conditions before Novermber is out.  I expect excitement to be back in the models within a couple of days....

[throwoff]

So much going mad!

 

It's the 11th of November!

[Mair Snaw]

So much going mad!

 

It's the 11th of November!

Winters already over according to the posts in the Model ramps n moans thread.....ive just been and double checked the calender it defo says 11/11/14...and its all because the meto are saying milder and wet....i mean how many times have they been right in the past?? didnt the go for a drier and colder than average winter 13/14??? we all know what happened next....the OPI SAI etc etc all say something else..the strat thread is looking good with wave 1 already looking like its happening along with a poss wave 2 to come...the vortex is shot to bits we are in a much better place than last year so just because the meto say no its all finished????

[lassie23]

Winters already over according to the posts in the Model ramps n moans thread.....ive just been and double checked the calender it defo says 11/11/14...and its all because the meto are saying milder and wet....i mean how many times have they been right in the past?? didnt the go for a drier and colder than average winter 13/14??? we all know what happened next....the OPI SAI etc etc all say something else..the strat thread is looking good with wave 1 already looking like its happening along with a poss wave 2 to come...the vortex is shot to bits we are in a much better place than last year so just because the meto say no its all finished????

I agree Bigsnow, we should ignore the Met Office long range forecast, let's just say that their track record is slightly iffy   besides i thought after last year's cock up, they were no longer going to issue LRF! Simon Keeling also does not buy into their winter forecast either, which is a good sign! In fact he is expecting a cold spell near Christmas time, after a mild start to December!

[BornFromTheVoid]

I see that some people are getting quite excited about the OPI forecast. But take a look at the two charts below.

 

December 2014 based on the OPI forecast

 

January 2014

 

Surprisingly similar charts in my opinion, and January this year was 1.3C above the 81-10 average while the anomaly based of the years used by the OPI guys for December is -0.8C.

It just shows how a subtle change in position or orientation of the large scale troughs and ridges can have a huge influence on our weather. It also shows that even if the upper level pattern turns out very similar to the OPI forecast next month, we could still end up with very mild conditions.

 

But I guess that's just winter weather on the British Isles, so much needs to fall into place to get sustained cold, yet so little is required to ruin it.

[Winter Cold]

Its all part of the fun isnt it, who will be proven correct?

 

It does seem like there is a strong disconnect with the background signals (SAI, OPI, QBO..etc) which are all in our favour, compared to the long range forecasts. Im not sure which of or if all these things are taken into the models at their starting point? I suspect not as i think some of it is just research at the moment?

 

Fingers crossed these signals prove correct, because at the moment, even though we seem to have 9/10 boxes ticked, there is nothing wintry shown for the UK as yet.

 

However, i do agree with the posts above....its not even winter yet.........so PLENTY of time to get a wintry period in over the next few months

[Bobby]

Its all part of the fun isnt it, who will be proven correct?

 

It does seem like there is a strong disconnect with the background signals (SAI, OPI, QBO..etc) which are all in our favour, compared to the long range forecasts. Im not sure which of or if all these things are taken into the models at their starting point? I suspect not as i think some of it is just research at the moment?

 

Fingers crossed these signals prove correct, because at the moment, even though we seem to have 9/10 boxes ticked, there is nothing wintry shown for the UK as yet.

 

However, i do agree with the posts above....its not even winter yet.........so PLENTY of time to get a wintry period in over the next few months

 

The long range forecasts and seasonal models (from the pros) use these signals though. I'm sure the Met Office etc are quite aware of the SAI, QBO, possible stratospheric warming etc but are still along with others siding with a milder and wetter winter than average. So maybe the background signals aren't so good or they are being misinterpreted in their context? Or there are other factors that some aren't considering.

 

To be honest these LRFs aren't worth getting bothered about either way IMO. I'll just focus on the semi-reliable timeframe, far more sanity there!

Edited November 11, 2014 by Bobby

[Gael_Force]

On one of the threads, someone was asking about the Met Office model outlook for 2010 and 2009 and whether they predicted the cold weather - the answer to that is no, they did not.

 

November 2009   

December 2009     

October  2010 

The forecast then changed in November as the cold weather was already in the regular NWP output.

 

This should not be taken as a swipe at any professional forecasting agency as it is, IMO, impossible to get the nuances of weather in specific locations that far ahead.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

On one of the threads, someone was asking about the Met Office model outlook for 2010 and 2009 and whether they predicted the cold weather - the answer to that is no, they did not.

 

November 2009   

December 2009     

October  2010 

The forecast then changed in November as the cold weather was already in the regular NWP output.

 

This should not be taken as a swipe at any professional forecasting agency as it is, IMO, impossible to get the nuances of weather in specific locations that far ahead.

Well the change in temp anomalies is massive,  wonder why?

BFTP

[Lauren]

I do find it funny that people have written off winter not even half way though November, when the typically snowy months are 2 months-ish away.

 

Seeing how completely bonkers snow seems to be in terms of will it or won't it, I don't know why people are taking bad runs so seriously. I can remember loads of times when the forecast said no snow only to be inundated with it and vice versa.

[feb1991blizzard]

^^

 

 

That's a new one for the phrasebook, never heard that one before, INNUNDATED WITH SNOW!

[Dami]

Last year was the only year since I moved (in then 6 years)  that I didn't see any snow or sleet. Hubs works in a tall building and  there had been a bit of snowy stuff  falling where his office is one day   but just rain and wind at ground level. Coming from the south east coast, I can remember quite a bit of snow falling, but as i grew older some years we may of had a flurry nothing more and never any snow at Christmas time ever. Spent a few boxing days in Kent and I can remember one year there was snow on the ground there, but December 2010 (think that is right year) was the only year I had ever sat down to Christmas lunch with snow still in the garden. So would love, love a bit on the day but sadly I don't think I will be lucky again.

My little one wants to build a snowman so hopefully we may have a period of snow at some point, but like so many days I have sat cloud watching when snow showers were forecast i expect most will break up before they reach me.

But I too would like a few snowy, hot chocolate, cuddle up days next year, because at least when it snows you know it's cold outside as to how it has been, when getting dressed has been a right pain.

[johnholmes]

Its all part of the fun isnt it, who will be proven correct?

 

It does seem like there is a strong disconnect with the background signals (SAI, OPI, QBO..etc) which are all in our favour, compared to the long range forecasts. Im not sure which of or if all these things are taken into the models at their starting point? I suspect not as i think some of it is just research at the moment?

 

 

 

As I posted yesterday NO synoptic model has any background signal(s) in them, they all run out to the end of the period be it 144h or 384h based on thermodynamics only.

[Cheshire Freeze]

'No cold weather on the horizon JUST YET' with real emphasis on the last part by John Hammond just then on the forecast. Given what SnowBallz has just posted in the MOD thread, it makes me wonder whether their latest model run is hinting at a change into December?

[johnholmes]

'No cold weather on the horizon JUST YET' with real emphasis on the last part by John Hammond just then on the forecast. Given what SnowBallz has just posted in the MOD thread, it makes me wonder whether their latest model run is hinting at a change into December?

 

Best you e mail Ian F to see if he is willing to provide any insight into what their longer range outputs are actually showing? I doubt though that there is anything at the 30 day end suggesting cold as their 30 day outlook suggests nothing of that. Indeed there was a mention in a 30 day outlook some days ago which was then dropped suggesting to me that any signal, however faint, had disappeared?

[Nick L]

The ECM monthly is certainly failing to show a cold signal for the next 30 days.

[Bristawl Si]

'No cold weather on the horizon JUST YET' with real emphasis on the last part by John Hammond just then on the forecast. Given what SnowBallz has just posted in the MOD thread, it makes me wonder whether their latest model run is hinting at a change into December?

He's the master of the 'Cold/Snow' tease on national TV weather i reckon.

[Winter Cold]

As I posted yesterday NO synoptic model has any background signal(s) in them, they all run out to the end of the period be it 144h or 384h based on thermodynamics only.

 

Thanks John. I always enjoy reading your posts btw, your years of experience and in depth knowledge is very noticable. Thanks for sharing it with us