Early winter hopes and chat

[LomondSnowstorm]

Moving on from my last post, I think we'll almost certainly see a westerly dominated winter this year with the caveat that we'll see greater instances of transient snowfall episodes from temporary northerly incursions than we did last year. I think the nino hovering around positive neutral will do us no favours and I was hoping for a weak moderate in all honesty. I just can't see a super -AO month at this point.

 

There must also be a reason why the vast majority of long range models are trailing a +NAO and I think it would be perilous to dismiss them.

 

Obviously things can change quickly but I've been having a bad feeling about this winter for the past few weeks. I think perhaps RJS may have it on the money with his winter forecast.....average.

 

I don't really buy the point about borderline El Ninos being a hinderance to blocking - 68-69, 69-70, 76-77 and 78-79 all had ENSO values around 0.5 and all had very negative AOs, and of the 'super AO' months only 09/10 and 65/66 had ENSO values above 1, with most of the rest pretty close to neutral or towards a slight La Nina. 

Edited October 28, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[Cheshire Freeze]

Indeed CC and just goes to show how many rolls of the dice are needed in order for things to land just right for the UK.

 

Enso neutral would be the killer. I saw a list not long back of the QBO and ENSO variables for various years. What was striking was that I didn't see one year where we had a cold winter month with an ENSO neutral and -QBO...unless I'm mistaken (looking at LS post)

Edited October 28, 2014 by CreweCold

[TEITS]

As much fun as it is discussing this oncoming winter, I feel it would be better to wait and see. The difference in some forecasts I have read are frankly laughable. For example I was reading a forecast for the NE of the USA today which suggested above average temps, below average snowfall. Another forecast predicted the opposite and also mentioned significant blocking over Greenland for the duration of the winter and a corresponding negative NAO/AO.

 

Due to the predictions of the NAO/AO being so wildly different I shall refrain from getting excited or despondent. I shall stick with the trusty method of just following the likes of the ECM/GFS nearer the time.

 

Look at it this way. If the americans are struggling to predict this coming winter then  its impossible for a tiny island like the UK. As you know a negative NAO/AO does not guarantee cold for the UK because it depends on the positioning of the blocking and the jet stream.

[throwoff]

Ladies and Gentlemen.

Boys and girls of all ages. 

 

Step right up to see a genuine miracle. 

 

Are you fed up with models for 8 weeks from now not showing snowmaggedon?

Enraged that the 06z is showing a mild spell in 30 days time?

 

Then try the new throwoff patented toy catcher!

 

For just 19.99 and 2.49 postage and packaging you too can keep your toys firmly in the pram!

Stocks are low so order NOW!

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

As much fun as it is discussing this oncoming winter, I feel it would be better to wait and see. The difference in some forecasts I have read are frankly laughable. For example I was reading a forecast for the NE of the USA today which suggested above average temps, below average snowfall. Another forecast predicted the opposite and also mentioned significant blocking over Greenland for the duration of the winter and a corresponding negative NAO/AO.

 

Due to the predictions of the NAO/AO being so wildly different I shall refrain from getting excited or despondent. I shall stick with the trusty method of just following the likes of the ECM/GFS nearer the time.

 

Look at it this way. If the americans are struggling to predict this coming winter then  its impossible for a tiny island like the UK. As you know a negative NAO/AO does not guarantee cold for the UK because it depends on the positioning of the blocking and the jet stream.

 

True, but if we do see an organised vortex establishing around Greenland/Canada during November, history tells us that we can probably write December off. Why people try and deny this is beyond me. We've seen it time and time again over the years.

[feb1991blizzard]

True, but if we do see an organised vortex establishing around Greenland/Canada during November, history tells us that we can probably write December off. Why people try and deny this is beyond me. We've seen it time and time again over the years.

 

True, but if we do see an organised vortex establishing around Greenland/Canada during November, history tells us that we can probably write December off. Why people try and deny this is beyond me. We've seen it time and time again over the years.

 

True, but if we do see an organised vortex establishing around Greenland/Canada during November, history tells us that we can probably write December off. Why people try and deny this is beyond me. We've seen it time and time again over the years.

 

Surely you of all people (given your location) should remember 1990??

Edited October 28, 2014 by feb1991blizzard

[snowking]

Surely you of all people (given your location) should remember 1990??

^^ what he said!

I'll post in more detail when I'm at a computer later

SK

[phil nw.]

This chart from January shows just how close we were to the tipping point last winter

 

 

Hence the reason I stated last winter was where the potential was at. The vortex was primed to go 'pop'

 

Another one from the end of Jan....

 

 

We were infact extremely unlucky not to get locked into a '47ish spell of winter weather.

 

At the end of December 2013 I was quoted as saying something along the lines of January 2014 containing one of the most severe spells of winter weather seen during the Netweather era......well you can see the fine margins involved between being entirely vindicated and looking like a prized prat.

Oh that brings back painfully memories Crewe.

That was the tipping point for my and many other Winter forecasts.

It went bust from there.

An almost record cold Stratosphere at the start of January overwhelmed any wave breaking.

[Snowyowl9]

Could be the warmest Hallowe'en on record (20C)? But, for the sake of being PC, the bottom right-hand corner of my freezer reached a new all-time low of -19.7C, last night!

Just looking at halloween October 1995.

Warmest late October day here today since then 15.9c max.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119951031.gif

[Mair Snaw]

Ladies and Gentlemen.

Boys and girls of all ages. 

 

Step right up to see a genuine miracle. 

 

Are you fed up with models for 8 weeks from now not showing snowmaggedon?

Enraged that the 06z is showing a mild spell in 30 days time?

 

Then try the new throwoff patented toy catcher!

 

For just 19.99 and 2.49 postage and packaging you too can keep your toys firmly in the pram!

Stocks are low so order NOW!

 

maybe this should be in the model thread.....you would sell out of them in record time....

[phil nw.]

maybe this should be in the model thread.....you would sell out of them in record time....

No-leave it here,ta

[Cheshire Freeze]

Surely you of all people (given your location) should remember 1990??

I was born in 1988!

[ukpaul]

I was born in 1988!

 

Growing up in the nineties must have conditioned you to disappointment, being a sixties child I had some great snow up in the Pennines throughout my formative years.

[feb1991blizzard]

I was born in 1988!

 

Sorry!,   I remember my dad saying someone in the Royal British Legion club had said the day before (Thursday) that 'we don't get heavy snow in the Uk anymore', low and behold the day after (Friday night), somebody else who he knew, was driving near Shropshire and went around a bend and ran straight into a 6 foot drift!

 

 

BTW look how massive the PV looks but we still got blown away, B'ham was a ghost town on a Saturday 3 weeks before xmas  -  10 inches in South B'ham!!!

[snowking]

So, to try and answer/allay some of CC's fears as best as I can...

 

First of all I think you are completely justified in your thinking re: November vortex ramping up. Any cold fan having to suffer through the misery of last "winter" can be forgiven for thinking that a strong vortex in November = game over. However, here's a chart I posted a few days back to try and allay similar sentiment with this regard:

 

 

Admittedly we do have a negative tilt in the North Atlantic at this stage, but a fairly menacing looking vortex at least (also note the heights in Eurasia - more on that soon). Perhaps this provides a better example:

 

 

So, strong tropospheric vortex at least. If we come back towards the example of 2009, and we can also group 2012 in to this too (perhaps more pertinently), lets take a look at why, in the end, there was no need to worry.

 

For this, let's go back to our good friend, Judah Cohen. This diagram has been re-posted many times, but it really does offer an excellent overview of why the SAI works:

 

 

So to break it down even further, in years where the snowcover expands rapidly through the month of October South of 60N across Eurasia, the surface temperature is reduced at a faster rate. The faster the rate of cooling at the surface, the stronger the Siberian high pressure cell becomes in the following weeks.

 

Now this is the crucial part. Because, realistically we could have whatever we wanted going on in the North Atlantic at this stage (though there tends to be a particular setup which we will come to in a moment), but the crucial element comes from the Siberian High. The idea is that the Siberian High strengthens and heads Westwards in towards Europe through the November/December period. This could in its self, of course, lead to some early season cold potentially. Remember the failed Easterly of December 2012? Well despite it narrowly missing the UK in terms of any potency, it provided an important building block for the rest of that memorable winter. Once the high reaches Scandinavian territories, it tends to teleconnect with the Pacific pattern too. The two longwave patterns then act in unison to help drive Wave Breaking (type 2) in to the Stratosphere. N.B. In reality it is far more complex that this, however for the purposes of this post we do not need to delve much deeper than this.

 

So hopefully what becomes apparent is that despite looking at charts such as this and seeing some strong cyclogenesis around Greenland in November:

 

 

The potential building blocks for something colder further in to the season have already taken place a month beforehand. In fact if we look at the three closest years in terms of OPI, ENSO and QBO match, posted the other day in the seasonal thread:

 

 

We see that there is a strong signature for some serious troughing across the North Atlantic preceding three pretty good years winter wise (all featured below average CET's). I suspect Ed is seeing something similar in his stratospheric analogues from some of the hints he has been dropping in recent posts.

 

So, to offer some sort of conclusion - don't panic! These things are really truly complex but I hope I have managed to break this down for you a little more.

 

Ohh and for anybody wondering where we stand this year in terms of the SAI, the chatter over on the AmericanWX forums suggests that we are pretty close to 2009 and 2012 in terms of 60N equatorward cover, so certainly looking promising.

 

SK

Edited October 28, 2014 by snowking

[Mair Snaw]

its all to late winter is already over..... http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/528643/Winter-2014-weather-warning-snow-arctic-freezing-temperatures-forecast

[Cheshire Freeze]

So, to try and answer/allay some of CC's fears as best as I can...

 

First of all I think you are completely justified in your thinking re: November vortex ramping up. Any cold fan having to suffer through the misery of last "winter" can be forgiven for thinking that a strong vortex in November = game over. However, here's a chart I posted a few days back to try and allay similar sentiment with this regard:

 

 

Admittedly we do have a negative tilt in the North Atlantic at this stage, but a fairly menacing looking vortex at least (also note the heights in Eurasia - more on that soon). Perhaps this provides a better example:

 

 

So, strong tropospheric vortex at least. If we come back towards the example of 2009, and we can also group 2012 in to this too (perhaps more pertinently), lets take a look at why, in the end, there was no need to worry.

 

For this, let's go back to our good friend, Judah Cohen. This diagram has been re-posted many times, but it really does offer an excellent overview of why the SAI works:

 

 

So to break it down even further, in years where the snowcover expands rapidly through the month of October South of 60N across Eurasia, the surface temperature is reduced at a faster rate. The faster the rate of cooling at the surface, the stronger the Siberian high pressure cell becomes in the following weeks.

 

Now this is the crucial part. Because, realistically we could have whatever we wanted going on in the North Atlantic at this stage (though there tends to be a particular setup which we will come to in a moment), but the crucial element comes from the Siberian High. The idea is that the Siberian High strengthens and heads Westwards in towards Europe through the November/December period. This could in its self, of course, lead to some early season cold potentially. Remember the failed Easterly of December 2012? Well despite it narrowly missing the UK in terms of any potency, it provided an important building block for the rest of that memorable winter. Once the high reaches Scandinavian territories, it tends to teleconnect with the Pacific pattern too. The two longwave patterns then act in unison to help drive Wave Breaking (type 2) in to the Stratosphere. N.B. In reality it is far more complex that this, however for the purposes of this post we do not need to delve much deeper than this.

 

So hopefully what becomes apparent is that despite looking at charts such as this and seeing some strong cyclogenesis around Greenland in November:

 

 

The potential building blocks for something colder further in to the season have already taken place a month beforehand. In fact if we look at the three closest years in terms of OPI, ENSO and QBO match, posted the other day in the seasonal thread:

 

NovSLPanom.png

 

We see that there is a strong signature for some serious troughing across the North Atlantic preceding three pretty good years winter wise (all featured below average CET's). I suspect Ed is seeing something similar in his stratospheric analogues from some of the hints he has been dropping in recent posts.

 

So, to offer some sort of conclusion - don't panic! These things are really truly complex but I hope I have managed to break this down for you a little more.

 

Ohh and for anybody wondering where we stand this year in terms of the SAI, the chatter over on the AmericanWX forums suggests that we are pretty close to 2009 and 2012 in terms of 60N equatorward cover, so certainly looking promising.

 

SK

Brilliant, cheers SK. I guess last year has scarred me!

[neige57]

So, to try and answer/allay some of CC's fears as best as I can...

 

First of all I think you are completely justified in your thinking re: November vortex ramping up. Any cold fan having to suffer through the misery of last "winter" can be forgiven for thinking that a strong vortex in November = game over. However, here's a chart I posted a few days back to try and allay similar sentiment with this regard:

 

 

Admittedly we do have a negative tilt in the North Atlantic at this stage, but a fairly menacing looking vortex at least (also note the heights in Eurasia - more on that soon). Perhaps this provides a better example:

 

 

So, strong tropospheric vortex at least. If we come back towards the example of 2009, and we can also group 2012 in to this too (perhaps more pertinently), lets take a look at why, in the end, there was no need to worry.

 

For this, let's go back to our good friend, Judah Cohen. This diagram has been re-posted many times, but it really does offer an excellent overview of why the SAI works:

 

 

So to break it down even further, in years where the snowcover expands rapidly through the month of October South of 60N across Eurasia, the surface temperature is reduced at a faster rate. The faster the rate of cooling at the surface, the stronger the Siberian high pressure cell becomes in the following weeks.

 

Now this is the crucial part. Because, realistically we could have whatever we wanted going on in the North Atlantic at this stage (though there tends to be a particular setup which we will come to in a moment), but the crucial element comes from the Siberian High. The idea is that the Siberian High strengthens and heads Westwards in towards Europe through the November/December period. This could in its self, of course, lead to some early season cold potentially. Remember the failed Easterly of December 2012? Well despite it narrowly missing the UK in terms of any potency, it provided an important building block for the rest of that memorable winter. Once the high reaches Scandinavian territories, it tends to teleconnect with the Pacific pattern too. The two longwave patterns then act in unison to help drive Wave Breaking (type 2) in to the Stratosphere. N.B. In reality it is far more complex that this, however for the purposes of this post we do not need to delve much deeper than this.

 

So hopefully what becomes apparent is that despite looking at charts such as this and seeing some strong cyclogenesis around Greenland in November:

 

 

The potential building blocks for something colder further in to the season have already taken place a month beforehand. In fact if we look at the three closest years in terms of OPI, ENSO and QBO match, posted the other day in the seasonal thread:

 

NovSLPanom.png

 

We see that there is a strong signature for some serious troughing across the North Atlantic preceding three pretty good years winter wise (all featured below average CET's). I suspect Ed is seeing something similar in his stratospheric analogues from some of the hints he has been dropping in recent posts.

 

So, to offer some sort of conclusion - don't panic! These things are really truly complex but I hope I have managed to break this down for you a little more.

 

Ohh and for anybody wondering where we stand this year in terms of the SAI, the chatter over on the AmericanWX forums suggests that we are pretty close to 2009 and 2012 in terms of 60N equatorward cover, so certainly looking promising.

 

SK

 

 

Congratulations and I am very widely. As some would say, be patient 

[Gael_Force]

Yup, cooling nicely over loads of snow.

 

 Last seven day mean temp anomaly compared to month to date.

 

 

 

 

[iand61]

its all to late winter is already over..... http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/528643/Winter-2014-weather-warning-snow-arctic-freezing-temperatures-forecast

Only thing funnier than the annual churning out of rubbish by this joke of a paper is the long list of comments backing up what we've known for a long time on here.

One day the Express and Madden may be right but it'll be more down to the law of averages than anything remotely scientific on their part and to be honest I'd be more worried if they had forecast the mildest winter for a gazillion years.

Then I would be stocking up on candles and blankets.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Further to SK's excellent post, here's the November 1976 height anomaly, a winter which keeps cropping up in the analogues in terms of the OPI, ENSO, Snow Advance Index and QBO:

It did come in marginally below the 61-90 average at 6.3C, but look at all those blues over the pole - disturbingly similar to last winter in many respects. Nonetheless, the December CET was 2C, and the winter as a whole was significantly colder than average (although arguably it was less severe for the British Isles than it perhaps *could* have been given it was the second lowest AO on record), and fits perfectly with Chiono's posting on the Cohen analogue chart for a November following a high Snow Advance Index. 

We're sitting here with what's likely to be the second, or at absolute worst 3rd, lowest OPI value on record, one of the best SAI values on record and a massively negative QBO - while it would be foolhardy to go DEFCON Madden (if you're reading this James, it's actually going to be an incredibly mild winter thanks to the MATBI {Madden always talks bull index}) I'm genuinely perplexed as to why anyone's downbeat about this winter's chances already, not least because it's so early - to put it in context, at this stage in 2010 FI of the GFS wasn't showing anything particularly out of the ordinary, and yet less than a month later we were entering the most incredible early winter cold spell seen in generations. 

 

[damianslaw]

its all about building blocks at this time of year and looking at background signals. I always think a wet mild November increases chances of a cold winter - as the saying goes snow and ice in November bear a duck, winter all slush and muck. Nov 2009 being a case in point one of the mildest on record and the wettest on record, followed by a very cold winter. Nov 78 another very mild one before the last week..

 

Many more promising signals this year than this time last year.

[feb1991blizzard]

Further to SK's excellent post, here's the November 1976 height anomaly, a winter which keeps cropping up in the analogues in terms of the OPI, ENSO, Snow Advance Index and QBO:

November 76.png

It did come in marginally below the 61-90 average at 6.3C, but look at all those blues over the pole - disturbingly similar to last winter in many respects. Nonetheless, the December CET was 2C, and the winter as a whole was significantly colder than average (although arguably it was less severe for the British Isles than it perhaps *could* have been given it was the second lowest AO on record), and fits perfectly with Chiono's posting on the Cohen analogue chart for a November following a high Snow Advance Index. 

We're sitting here with what's likely to be the second, or at absolute worst 3rd, lowest OPI value on record, one of the best SAI values on record and a massively negative QBO - while it would be foolhardy to go DEFCON Madden (if you're reading this James, it's actually going to be an incredibly mild winter thanks to the MATBI {Madden always talks bull index}) I'm genuinely perplexed as to why anyone's downbeat about this winter's chances already, not least because it's so early - to put it in context, at this stage in 2010 FI of the GFS wasn't showing anything particularly out of the ordinary, and yet less than a month later we were entering the most incredible early winter cold spell seen in generations. 

 

 

Further to SK's excellent post, here's the November 1976 height anomaly, a winter which keeps cropping up in the analogues in terms of the OPI, ENSO, Snow Advance Index and QBO:

November 76.png

It did come in marginally below the 61-90 average at 6.3C, but look at all those blues over the pole - disturbingly similar to last winter in many respects. Nonetheless, the December CET was 2C, and the winter as a whole was significantly colder than average (although arguably it was less severe for the British Isles than it perhaps *could* have been given it was the second lowest AO on record), and fits perfectly with Chiono's posting on the Cohen analogue chart for a November following a high Snow Advance Index. 

We're sitting here with what's likely to be the second, or at absolute worst 3rd, lowest OPI value on record, one of the best SAI values on record and a massively negative QBO - while it would be foolhardy to go DEFCON Madden (if you're reading this James, it's actually going to be an incredibly mild winter thanks to the MATBI {Madden always talks bull index}) I'm genuinely perplexed as to why anyone's downbeat about this winter's chances already, not least because it's so early - to put it in context, at this stage in 2010 FI of the GFS wasn't showing anything particularly out of the ordinary, and yet less than a month later we were entering the most incredible early winter cold spell seen in generations. 

 

True but to be fair that's not a Bartlett or Euro setup, there is low heights to the South East, or at least below average heights anyway.

[Snowyowl9]

I was born in 1988!

You wouldn`t quite remember the mildest winter on record.

[feb1991blizzard]

its all about building blocks at this time of year and looking at background signals. I always think a wet mild November increases chances of a cold winter - as the saying goes snow and ice in November bear a duck, winter all slush and muck. Nov 2009 being a case in point one of the mildest on record and the wettest on record, followed by a very cold winter. Nov 78 another very mild one before the last week..

 

Many more promising signals this year than this time last year.

 

 

Yes, as ive said many times, I don't know where all the fuss is wrt November, I can understand looking at the charts every day and being disappointed when they are zonal, its human nature, the bigger picture however is that a zonal November is more likely to lead to a blocked winter and vice versa, the evidence is in the reanalysis charts.