Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[summer blizzard]

Think people are too depressed about the high.

 

While to the west of us i think the northern half of the UK and eastern counties will be cloudy but the Midlands, London, the South East, South and South West should be fine for sunshine. Once it moves south towards Europe then the north west comes off worse while the south and east should do fine. 

[Catacol]

Think people are too depressed about the high.

 

While to the west of us i think the northern half of the UK and eastern counties will be cloudy but the Midlands, London, the South East, South and South West should be fine for sunshine. Once it moves south towards Europe then the north west comes off worse while the south and east should do fine. 

 

Since when was winter the "hunt for sunshine?" - Sunshine doesnt cut it at all. Winter is about snow... and we havent had any here like most of the south. :-(

[Frosty_wsm]

So they were right then weren't they? This winter has been utter pap despite all the positive background signals which have amounted to nothing. We have achieved ZERO HLB this winter and to hope for a miraculous pattern change to HLB nirvana just aint gonna happen if we haven't achieved any meaningful cold by late Jan in my experience the winter is over!! Which I'm afraid it is!!

What utter rubbish this post is, 4 weeks left of winter yet, not to mention it's damn cold outside right now which is fact considering I've just been freezing my a#@e off outside and then I come in to read some dross telling me winter is over!

Edited February 3, 2015 by Smartie

[March Blizzard]

What utter rubbish this post is, 4 weeks left of winter yet, not to mention it's damn cold outside right now which is fact considering I've just been freezing my a#@e off outside and then I come in to read some dross telling me winter is over!

Yeah, I don't get it myself. You've got to laugh at comments like "nothing wintry in the foreseeable" when it's -5C outside and frosty. Is frost and cold not "wintry" weather?

The netweather term "coldie" is a misnomer, as most "coldies" are actually "snowies".

I'm a true "coldie", a lack of snow really doesn't bother me, as long as it's cold, and preferably sunny by day and frosty by night.

[DAVID SNOW]

Yeah, I don't get it myself. You've got to laugh at comments like "nothing wintry in the foreseeable" when it's -5C outside and frosty. Is frost and cold not "wintry" weather?

The netweather term "coldie" is a misnomer, as most "coldies" are actually "snowies".

I'm a true "coldie", a lack of snow really doesn't bother me, as long as it's cold, and preferably sunny by day and frosty by night.

 

Well said March Frost

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yeah, I don't get it myself. You've got to laugh at comments like "nothing wintry in the foreseeable" when it's -5C outside and frosty. Is frost and cold not "wintry" weather?

The netweather term "coldie" is a misnomer, as most "coldies" are actually "snowies".

I'm a true "coldie", a lack of snow really doesn't bother me, as long as it's cold, and preferably sunny by day and frosty by night.

 

U live in a snowy location anyway, 20th Dec 2009, 28th Dec 2009, 5th Jan 2010

[March Blizzard]

Well said March Frost

Yeah, perhaps a name change is in order for this hypocrite?! Not sure about your suggestion, though. It doesn't roll off the tongue!

[DAVID SNOW]

Yeah, perhaps a name change is in order for this hypocrite?! Not sure about your suggestion, though. It doesn't roll off the tongue!

 

Was just a little leg pulling    as you know.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Yeah, I don't get it myself. You've got to laugh at comments like "nothing wintry in the foreseeable" when it's -5C outside and frosty. Is frost and cold not "wintry" weather?

The netweather term "coldie" is a misnomer, as most "coldies" are actually "snowies".

I'm a true "coldie", a lack of snow really doesn't bother me, as long as it's cold, and preferably sunny by day and frosty by night.

Yes I agree with you but it has been awful an hour ago we had a clear skies snow what was left freezing frost shining in the moinlight lovely and wintry then it clouds over and starts raining washes it all away load of tosh if you ask me

[Timmytour]

"Now is the discontent with our winter......"

[alexisj9]

BBC (MO) are still reporting the onset of a bitterly cold easterly on thursday and lasting through the weekend on the Nat weather at 08:20 (and repeated at 08:50).

They stressed this signal last night, as I reported, and Knocker posted up a GFS chart showig a rapid extension eastward of the high off northern Ireland into Poland and the Baltic Sea.

This chart was again shown this morning by the gorgeous one (Carol) and she was indicating that it would last all weekend and the high would not be toppling quickly and maintaining the 'even colder' air into the southern/central porton of the UK, whilst stayig cold to the north.

They seem to have picked up this signal and it is not just a one dayer for thursday. as many people on here have been saying

PS This morning at 8:30 my local BBC forecast ( for the midlands) did not show this scenario with mildish temps and a light northerly. They have changed overnight.

Could it be that we have missed this extension to the cold whilst looking too much for the next cold spell in the 10 day period?

MIA

I'm putting this here as my reply isn't really model related. The BBC forecasts for this cold spell have nearly always use old data, but it will be cold under that high, and I think that is what forecasts this morning are trying to stress, even heard beast from the east mentioned by ITV. Unfortunately that is a gross exaggeration, but at least that makes sure people will check on those who need more help in cold weather.

[mushymanrob]

I see people are wheeling out the "March can be cold - remember 2013".

And i've been on this planet 53yrs plus and certainly for down these parts March rarely delivers.

Yes we've had the odd snowfall but not many noteworthy.

 

... indeed, what people seem to overlook is that march 2013 was a very rare event, so whilst march can be cold and snowy...the odds are stacked right against it.

 

What utter rubbish this post is, 4 weeks left of winter yet, not to mention it's damn cold outside right now which is fact considering I've just been freezing my a#@e off outside and then I come in to read some dross telling me winter is over!

 

Yeah, I don't get it myself. You've got to laugh at comments like "nothing wintry in the foreseeable" when it's -5C outside and frosty. Is frost and cold not "wintry" weather?

The netweather term "coldie" is a misnomer, as most "coldies" are actually "snowies".

I'm a true "coldie", a lack of snow really doesn't bother me, as long as it's cold, and preferably sunny by day and frosty by night.

 

in reply to these... depends what you want from winter though doesnt it?... i suspect many looking for cold arent really content with a light/moderate frost by night, sunny 4-5c by day and snowless. it DOES look like winter MIGHT be over in terms of a deep cold snowy spell, that would be a fairly safe bet in the next 24 days. so if people are happy with march blizzards preferances, fair play! but i think hes right and people want snow not frost.

[Dr. Astro]

... indeed, what people seem to overlook is that march 2013 was a very rare event, so whilst march can be cold and snowy...the odds are stacked right against it.

 

 

 

in reply to these... depends what you want from winter though doesnt it?... i suspect many looking for cold arent really content with a light/moderate frost by night, sunny 4-5c by day and snowless. it DOES look like winter MIGHT be over in terms of a deep cold snowy spell, that would be a fairly safe bet in the next 24 days. so if people are happy with march blizzards preferances, fair play! but i think hes right and people want snow not frost.

 

Have to agree with this. I'd say 95% of members on this forum want Snow, and just cold with a bit of frost isn't wetting the appetite of many.

 

Just had a good look at the profile this morning, and it's bleak, to say the least. HP dominating for the next 15 days or more, cold, dry & benign.

 

Anything can happen after that, but all I see is a flat pattern with not much interest.

[Bristawl Si]

Agreed, with last couple of posts.

I dont mind cold and dry (certainly better than last year's storms), but snow is what i want on occasions in Winter.

This Winter just hasnt delivered here (imby) - my frustration is tempered by the fact that i've taken more notice of Ian F's updates, the Meto and the likes of John Holmes this Winter.

Not to say others like Chiono havent posted some top notch stuff, because they have, but i suspect those Meto models are pretty damn good, most of the time.

I mean that Meto contingency forecast which was shown on here in November has been proved pretty damn accurate.

Edited February 4, 2015 by Bristle boy

[Dr. Astro]

Agreed, with last couple of posts.

I dont mind cold and dry (certainly better than last year's storms), but snow is what i want on occasions in Winter.

This Winter just hasnt delivered here (imby) - my frustration is tempered by the fact that i've taken more notice of Ian F's updates, the Meto and the likes of John Holmes this Winter.

Not to say others like Chiono havent posted some top notch stuff, because they have, but i suspect those Meto models are pretty damn good, most of the time.

I mean that Meto contingency forecast which was shown on here in November has been proved pretty damn accurate.

 

Yep, there has been some great posts by the more knowledgable, Steve, Chiono, Ian, John etc, but one thing is for sure, the Met and Ian are nearly always spot on in what they forecast. I think this is because they HAVE to keep a level head, and not get sucked into things because thats what you are looking for...

 

Those who look for snow, will see snow, whatever the charts are showing.

[Frosty_wsm]

So apparently winter is over according to some yet down here in the south it's already cold and with a easterly wind picking up over the next few days it'll feel bitter out there with sleet and snow showers forecast to reach quite a way to the west according the forecasts I've seen today. So much for winter being over eh!!

[TonyH]

Have to agree with this. I'd say 95% of members on this forum want Snow, and just cold with a bit of frost isn't wetting the appetite of many.

 

Just had a good look at the profile this morning, and it's bleak, to say the least. HP dominating for the next 15 days or more, cold, dry & benign.

 

Anything can happen after that, but all I see is a flat pattern with not much interest.

Correct its a snow/ storm forum not a true weather enthusiasts forum.

Edited February 4, 2015 by TonyH

[mushymanrob]

So apparently winter is over according to some yet down here in the south it's already cold and with a easterly wind picking up over the next few days it'll feel bitter out there with sleet and snow showers forecast to reach quite a way to the west according the forecasts I've seen today. So much for winter being over eh!!

 

of course winters not over, theres 24 more days, but that localised couple of days of bitter wind and some possible snow (although daytime temps are above zero) isnt really what the majority are looking for is it. cold/chilly/overnight frosts.. 'normal' winter weather is what we have, and in those terms, wintry weather isnt over by any stretch of the imagination.

but if youre looking for a period of real cold and snow, ice days, that lasts longer then a few hours, and engulfs most if not all the country...ie a proper deep cold spell, then thats highly unlikely to happen now, so THAT description of 'winter' has little chance of happening.

[kent]

How winter is over comments can be summised is beyond me when all the more learned on these sites including input from the Met and the hundreds of charts posted have never totally accurately predicted any outcome beyond 6 or 7 days.So to assume nothing of interest is going to happen over the next 2 weeks is a bit of a contradiction.

[summer blizzard]

6z takes high pressure to another level, still days away from a breakdown at day 16. Also think some people are too depressed regarding sunshine amounts, once the high moves over/south of us the east and south especially should sunny up.

 

[MPG]

Correct its a snow/ storm forum not a true weather enthusiasts forum.

Well there are other forums you can join TonyH. You don't have to come here.

[Bristawl Si]

 It was the coldest March in the UK since 1962.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2013/march

It was also snowless for these parts and the SW, so all it did was give me higher energy bills than the norm for March.

Would not like another March 13.

[mushymanrob]

Would not like another March 13.

 

me neither, it cost me too much lost income..

but all this hopecasting talk of 'another march 2013' really is clutching at straws imho... because that march was highly unusual. not  that it was cold, but the longevity of it.

[WINTRY WALES]

It was also snowless for these parts and the SW, so all it did was give me higher energy bills than the norm for March.

Would not like another March 13.

Snowless?? The met office summary detailed snow events in the south west and southern Wales

[Nights King]

Snowless?? The met office summary detailed snow events in the south west and southern Wales

 

Most of the west country away from far south got nothing but hard frosts and ice days.