Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Gord]

Things you pick yup from a meltdown.....

Nobody demands to know why a model was showing mild only a day earlier for a few days ahead and then suddenly flipped to show cold....but the other way around and it seems the world and his mother wants an inquiry into why the models are so bad!

It's interesting to see some folks in the Mod thread claiming they were gunned down for suggesting a breakdown was on the cards when a day earlier they were gunning people down themselves for suggesting it was!

anyways....it's only 10 days ago that the GFS started showing tentative signs of a potential cold spell coming up when the mood was as depressed as I've ever seen it in the Mod thread I think! So things can quicky turn and this time it's not ten days of mild mush to go through to get there

Not even had 10 days of mild mush here. Nice little bit of snow last Tuesday. One or two decent frosts.

 

I'd say it's been 10 days of acceptable but not spectacular January weather! Good point you make anyway!

Edited January 16, 2015 by Gord

[Long haul to mild]

As Eugene pointed out we've still got 5 days of cold and potential wintry Synoptics for this duration, sure it's disappointing if you believe and follow each run as if it was set in stone but for those more accustomed to the variability and forecasted projections in the model output it's no real surprise. How many would have been happy with what's on offer this time last year, lower ones expectations and realise that we're not situated off the southern tip of Greenland and that we live in a maritime climate and not a sub arctic one.

It's those failed Easterlies that hit the hardest as for a lot of people they are the best chance of seeing significant snowfall. We all know the models change but to go from what was showing yesterday to the underwhelming output tonight is what is causing people to foam at the mouth!

But yes you are right, there is a cold snap coming up and some surprise snowfalls are certainly possible still.

[blizzard81]

Most runs show Tuesday as a snow event...

Absolutely, Tuesday snow, Wednesday rain.

[TonyH]

Well that's what happens when people get overexcited and over-analyse when there are a couple of sets of runs showing cold. Theoretical model runs showing cold in FI are just that...not a certainty! Saying that, it won't be mild for some time and we have all of Feb to go yet! Plus the last weeks of Jan.

Precisely and that the models always play around with various scenarios - we only notice when they tease with the cold ones in Winter.

Edited January 16, 2015 by TonyH

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I have a feeling that we still haven't seen the best charts yet this winter. Don't be surprised to see an appearance from the beasterly in the next two weeks after a brief attack from the Atlantic...

[snowblizzard]

Like many on here, I was expecting to see some sort of turnaround!

Basically, it happens several times every season and it's part & parcel of model watching.

But, I still can't hide the massive disappointment after seeing stunning charts showing bitterly cold Easterly's turn back to default West to East flow!

Once again, I ask myself what's the point of looking at model runs any further out than 72 hours?  

Deplorable modelling!

I have a feeling that we still haven't seen the best charts yet this winter. Don't be surprised to see an appearance from the beasterly in the next two weeks after a brief attack from the Atlantic...

Yes, you will see the charts - but you almost certainly won't see the predicted weather!

Edited January 16, 2015 by snowblizzard

[Danielvn]

Hardly! Although there are some 'accurate' PWS (such as mine) the majority are far from it. 40c in July anyone

Yeah, my weather station is too close to the house and vegetation so tends to read a degree or two high even in the depths of winter and it's dark.

[Severe Blizzard]

Are they really more reliable than they were 20+ years ago?

 

I remember a newspaper article at the start of January 1976 titled, "30 days of mild and dry". January 1976 was Bartlett High dominated with mild and dry weather until about the 26th when very cold easterlies took over - unfortunately little snow.

 

Models as good or better in 1976 than now?

 

My father who did a stint in the Odiham met-office said forecasting was just as accurate as it is today in 1955/1956!

 

I have been holding off having a moan on here as moan threads are all I ever seem to contribute. With the most restraint as possible, I rate this winter the most unpleasant and vile since the 2005/2006 winter which was dominated by constant promises then let-downs, very little snow and thoroughly unpleasant conditions for outdoor working an leisure, especially in February. Most other parts of the UK saw decent snow including a major snow event in Cornwall in late November. The slightly below average temperature theme of that winter accompanied by such disappointing weather has given me a life long dislike of snow-less cold. To add insult to injury that disgusting winter was followed by a cold and unpleasant March with Guildford missing all the snow again. One just wants to get into spring and put such miserable winters behind them. 

 

I now feel cold weather is only worth having if there is snow or radiation cold with sunshine & frost or perhaps fog with rime on trees. I am not interested in rain at 1 deg.C. or drizzle blown by 20 mph winds - I hate it!!

 

'05/'06 was a notch worse than this winter although I am comparing a whole winter with half a winter. If the second half of '14/'15 performs as badly as the first and Guildford, still yet to see it's first flakes of snow, goes completely snow-less, then this winter will be considered even worse then that of 9 years ago.

 

I rate winters on four factors;

(1) Amount of boredom.

(2) Amount of 'unfairness' / 'weather jealousy' etc. Chief component here is missing out on snow while others enjoy (eg. Boxing day '14, 13th~15th January '15)

(3) Level of discomfort from unpleasant conditions (drizzle, wind, damp, cold, ice preventing cycle rides or causing accidents)

(4) Amount of downgrades or promises of snow or other interesting events that are subsequently downgraded and indications of a snowy event that fails.

 

My worst winters locally are: (all have themes of near misses with snow, some worse than others).

2005/2006 (considerable)

2001/2002 

1998/1999

1992/1993 (considerable)

1991/1992 *

1988/1989 *

1987/1988

1983/1984 (considerable, we just missed everything as the rest of the UK was pasted in 3rd week of Jan.)

 

* although these winters were a 'trial' at the time, as they were dry based with little 'unfairness' and very mild ('88/'89) and comfortable ('91/'92) they would be recognised as good outdoor activity winters in the current day. By engaging in outdoor activities and hobbies, such frustrations about the winter will seem less prominent. Having to suffer cold rain and other nasties while the rest of the U.K. is getting snow, being confined to camp is  ot a good way to try to deal with the frustration. 

 

Whereas 1983/1984 disappointment was mostly focused on January, subjectively my most vile winter was 1992/1993 where there were early indications of cold after a cold October to be followed by an indifferent December, zonal mild January (then our 6th consecutive snowless January) with frequent snow up north followed by a very dry, very dull and anticyclonic and very boooring February with plenty of time to simmer & stew about what an awful winter it had been. It looks like these extra-horrendous winters occur roughly once a decade.

 

I wonder how 2014/2015 will shape up? 

 

Here's hoping we will just get a 'good' summer and plenty of thunderstorms after this noxious winter to redress the balance.

[TonyH]

Yeah, my weather station is too close to the house and vegetation so tends to read a degree or two high even in the depths of winter and it's dark.

This site is excellent plus the have added the CWOPs (PWS) now and mines there alongside great and glorious MO stations like Trawsgoed!

http://weatherobs.com/

[bobbydog]

just a thought. predicted min temp tonight for my location -1c.

actual temp -4c.

if actual temps and dewpoints over the next few days happen to be a couple of degrees lower than predicted, those of us in the doubtful areas would be watching our world turn as white as... snow...

[Milhouse]

Some springlike temps on the gfs 0z in 9 days time. This would get the snowdrops flowering. I am resigned to the fact that next week will bring very little in the way of snow here but the lighter winds will be most welcome.

 

[mushymanrob]

Sorry, but the parallel has been about as useful as a chocolate fireguard over these past couple of days too.

How can an easterly of the severity it was showing suddenly become none existent at all!

It's equivalence has been like Chelsea buying Torres for 50 million so far. Utter garbage.

 

yyyeeessss...

because the data changes, it changes because its a complete synoptical mess. its not like theres a large anticyclone sat over us where confidence days out can be pretty accurate. when the synoptic pattern is uncertain, messy, then its not surprising that predictions change.

the analogy that was used to explain it to me when i first joined is this..... its like going for a maximum break at snooker, not only potting the chosen ball but positioning the white ball for the next shot. if you get it slightly wrong, it makes potting the next ball difficult and eventually the plot falls apart.

[mushymanrob]

funny old site this is..... on the md thread you have eminant people alongside mods and others requesting less hystrionics and complaining about having to delete/move posts . moans about 'poor quality' posts and alike.


yet only a few days ago we all had the choice to change things, to have a seperate 'hunt for cold' thread whilst the informed , knowlegable posters could post realisticly in a mod thread. well, you had the chance to avoid this mess, and voted to keep things as they are. fair play, but please stop moaning about the consequences of what you voted for.

[fUnKy]

Model watching last few days..It's a bit like looking forward to your wedding day and then your bride doesn't turn up.. I've enjoyed the little snow that's fallen from the sky but need this to be the start of the event and not the event for it to be enjoyable on the ground. But weather is a fickle thing.

[> mark]

I'm afraid this is all too common and as I've said before, models are run by computers. We program computers and all they do is use extrapolation algorithms to produce charts for interpretation.

In fact the Meto said we'd get light snow this morning and changed it this morning to light rain ........ We got light snow lol

If they were that good, I'd use modelling to predict the lotto numbers each week

Moan over, looking forward to spring now it the added bonus of longer daylight hours :-)

Edited January 17, 2015 by > mark

[The Weather Dragon]

Here's my take

A chilly week approaching - some will see significant snow - most won't

Westerly regime into the SW by Friday - will likely be around for 7-10 days

Disappointed - Yes

[stewfox]

Here's my take

A chilly week approaching - some will see significant snow - most won't

Westerly regime into the SW by Friday - will likely be around for 7-10 days

Disappointed - Yes

 

Disagree models still bouncing all over the place supporting chars attached

 

Still much uncertainty where we land for next weekend given the model volatility and given high Shannon entropy re tues/weds out come particularly re snow and 'most wont' get any comment.

 

I'll be disappointed after cold snap ends not before it starts ! That would be like supporting Luxembourg in football.

Edited January 17, 2015 by stewfox

[TEITS]

Before the 12Zs come out I wanted to mention that my instincts are telling me the E,ly flow may well return. Maybe it will take until tomorrows 12Zs but the trend could appear later today. Next weekend is when im expecting an E,ly to return and do not buy the current output suggesting a return to milder W,lys.

[Harsh Climate]

Before the 12Zs come out I wanted to mention that my instincts are telling me the E,ly flow may well return. Maybe it will take until tomorrows 12Zs but the trend could appear later today. Next weekend is when im expecting an E,ly to return and do not buy the current output suggesting a return to milder W,lys.

 

If you keep predicting an easterly you will get one right eventually 

[Froze were the Days]

Before the 12Zs come out I wanted to mention that my instincts are telling me the E,ly flow may well return. Maybe it will take until tomorrows 12Zs but the trend could appear later today. Next weekend is when im expecting an E,ly to return and do not buy the current output suggesting a return to milder W,lys.

Your record re easterlies hasn't been great to be honest but one might turn up -  strangely occasionally the CFS over the last month has showed a Scandi HP on some runs but never influences this country's weather (with a form of trough/sliding low) just to the west of the UK and filling in situ before lower height move in from the Atlantic. (Just seen the post above). 

Edited January 17, 2015 by Froze were the Days

[summer blizzard]

Before the 12Zs come out I wanted to mention that my instincts are telling me the E,ly flow may well return. Maybe it will take until tomorrows 12Zs but the trend could appear later today. Next weekend is when im expecting an E,ly to return and do not buy the current output suggesting a return to milder W,lys.

Possible. Last nights GEM got very close and todays Euro OP only gets the Atlantic through because of a secondary low.

I'm not sure myself, both scenarios are plausible however I lean towards a 2 front breakdown simply because the high to the east is so far away (the front on Friday will probably occlude but get through so that the following warm front brings rain a few days later).

[March Blizzard]

Before the 12Zs come out I wanted to mention that my instincts are telling me the E,ly flow may well return. Maybe it will take until tomorrows 12Zs but the trend could appear later today. Next weekend is when im expecting an E,ly to return and do not buy the current output suggesting a return to milder W,lys.

The BBC 6-10 day outlook last night seemed to suggest so, too. Rightly or wrongly?

[Barry12]

Here's my take

A chilly week approaching - some will see significant snow - most won't

Westerly regime into the SW by Friday - will likely be around for 7-10 days

Disappointed - Yes

 

How can you be disappointed about something that's not happened?

[snowblizzard]

Can't we NUKE that blasted Azores High?

Edited January 17, 2015 by snowblizzard

[h2005__uk__]

I've got a bit lost in the model thread over the last few days!

 

Am I right in saying that the basic outlook at the moment is that the cold snap will be ending (for now) towards the end of next week, and in the meantime there won't be much snow (if any) for the south-east?

Edited January 17, 2015 by h2005uk