Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[knocker]

News flash.

 

Knee jerk reactions are not welcome in the MOD thread. I do hope the crush injuries are kept to a minimum in the rush for the exit.

[Timmytour]

Sound like we were promised caviar only to find out all we're getting now is fish eggs

[snowsummer]

Morning all! Have came over here from mod site as im aware this is the place to moan! And moan I will. Having slept for a total of 3hours (this model watching is highly addictive you know!) Ive just caught up with all the posts id missed. What happened? I fell asleep pretty smug that my knowledge was almost good enough for me to post. Woke up thinking id better go back to kindergarten and learn the basics! VERY confusing for us newbies.

[swash]

Well having read the mod thread, I can confirm that without a doubt that the upgrades have downgraded, the downgrades have upgraded, the upgrades may actually be downgrades, the downgrades may or may not actually be downgrades, and that there may be more upgrades or downgrades to come.

 

So in reality the weather will continue to do exactly as it pleases.

[Laurence Hill]

There used to be a way to block undesireable posters, can it still be done?

[Summer Sun]

There used to be a way to block undesireable posters, can it still be done?

 

click your name (top right) next to sign out

 

click Manage Ignore Prefs

 

under Add a new user to my list type the name in and hide what you don't want from to see from the person -  posts, pm's and or signature bar

Edited January 16, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Neilsouth]

Well the UKMO is a bit of a disaster. GFS better but not great either. Easterly looking shakey,

 

Exactly what I expected really, happens 80% of the time with easterlies... This cold spell/snap isn't looking that great tbh at least from a general viewpoint

[Danielvn]

Well having read the mod thread, I can confirm that without a doubt that the upgrades have downgraded, the downgrades have upgraded, the upgrades may actually be downgrades, the downgrades may or may not actually be downgrades, and that there may be more upgrades or downgrades to come..

Sounds like a Yes Minister quote

[nanu]

Exactly what I expected really, happens 80% of the time with easterlies... This cold spell/snap isn't looking that great tbh at least from a general viewpoint

Didnt this happen 2 yrs ago and then we got it all in early feb down here??  Anyway who cares, you should be all used to it by now if you been here quite awhile like i have. And always read the posters who know what there talking about never the ones who like sticking posts of something happening 2 weeks from now!! And especially the idiots who think 1 wrong chart is the doom of existence  

[Ravendane]

I should have kept to my resolution not to look at the Netweather five day forecasts and Model discussions..  fabulous set up for lots of snow on Tuesday and Wednesday last night , now all gone to rain and nothing....    

[snowsummer]

Morning all! Have came over here from mod site as im aware this is the place to moan! And moan I will. Having slept for a total of 3hours (this model watching is highly addictive you know!) Ive just caught up with all the posts id missed. What happened? I fell asleep pretty smug that my knowledge was almost good enough for me to post. Woke up thinking id better go back to kindergarten and learn the basics! VERY confusing for us newbies.

Just read this and realised it could have been misinterpreted as a slight to all the posters......it wasnt .....more at moan at my own ability to read the models! Oops! Sorry

[Laurence Hill]

click your name (top right) next to sign out

 

click Manage Ignore Prefs

 

under Add a new user to my list type the name in and hide what you don't want from to see from the person -  posts, pm's and or signature bar

Thanks Summer, there are a couple of poster to get rid of, not yours I hasten to add!

[West is Best]

Tip: Those of you who cling to every frame may have noticed that with the GFS parallel switch the T850hPa charts are around 2 frames earlier to appear than the T500's. 

 

(I don't think this was the case before.)

 

Oops - meant this in the other thread.

Edited January 16, 2015 by West is Best

[Kent Blizzard]

Handbags are flying 

 

Some people never learn, must be very tiresome looking into every single output and picking the bones out of it knowing that a few hours later it will probably be a different story.

 

Look for the back round pattern and trends rather than what's full in the face on every single damn run 

[lightningsprite]

Having been a lurking model thread watcher for many years it always amazes me how strong reactions are to a couple of so called 'downgrades'...I think what happens to a lot of folk is they over react to these whilst hoping that the models will change back to what they want...so kind of anticipating a let down while secretly hoping for the scenario they want! There's a distinct difference to the posts depending if you are a glass half full or glass half empty type of person...me, I just sit back and let others debate while quietly hoping...;-)

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Despite all the hype to this cold spell there really doesn't seem to be much snowfall forecast for Southern low lying areas as shown by the GFS precipitation type charts. Also the Met Office don't think there will be disrupting snowfall in these areas over the next 5 days looking at the severe weather warnings page.

 

At least it won't be mild!

Edited January 16, 2015 by prolongedSnowLover

[mushymanrob]

hi cassandra here

some of us more seasoned weather watchers did actually warn against premature cork popping. the synoptic pattern over the next week is a right mess. all that was 'nailed' is that it is going to be cold.

the models this morning might have backed off from a deep cold/big freeze/snowmageddon , but its still possible, but its also possible that the cold is downgraded even further. longer term predictions can only be made with any accuracy when the coming synoptic pattern is strong, a familiar well worn path, be it stuck under an anticyclone, or a firm westerly. what we have in the next week is a mess, when subtle changes can occur within a day or so, and these subtle changes can make all the difference to who gets what. its all borderline.

i also believe that this cold spell is likely to be 'it' , IF we return to zonal afterwards (but theres no saying there will be a quick return to zonal).

[knocker]

Level 3 Cold weather alert has been updated. For more information, go to http://bit.ly/1A3XABX 

 

And in case anyone asks.  The Cold Weather Alerts are issued on behalf of Public Health England only as the only region subscribed.

Edited January 16, 2015 by knocker

[Iceaxecrampon]

There used to be a way to block undesireable posters, can it still be done?

 

Be careful what you wish for.......

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

A severe weather warning for rain for SE England on Sun/Mon has been issued (in agreement with the GFS output) - this really sums it up!

[Iceaxecrampon]

06Z (If anyones bothered?)

 

Well the Greenland LP that everyone  wanted decides to fizzle out somewhere over Rekjavik.

 

 

Snow potential still for the NW.

 

 

Ian

 

.....back to enjoying the rain

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Love Snow]

Get into the Yorkshre thread for all what seem to be moaning to have a taste of winter

[Smiler1709]

I think some people in the mod thread are in denial, it's quite easy to see that the models have picked up a new trend and that is for this cold spell to turn into a damp cool spell then back to mild. Never believed it to come good anyway. Bring on spring and summer I say. Would of been nice for abit of snow though.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Get into the Yorkshre thread for all what seem to be moaning to have a taste of winter

I used to live in Bradford back in '97 (the best was Feb 1991). So miss the fun and games in Yorkshire!

[MPG]

MushymanRob is just loving it!!