Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[snowblizzard]

I always recon, that if we haven't had a decent cold/snowy spell by about 15th January then it's very unlikely to occur during the final part of winter!

Of course, not always the case, notable recent exception March 2013 which was the result of exceptional SSW and mid-latitude cold!

Edited January 4, 2015 by snowblizzard

[Weather-history]

It says it all when December was the coldest CET month of the year and it was still showing an anomaly of +0.8c. Though being in the south it appears to have been milder than that. With rising CO2's, the increased sun spot activity these have just squashed any other signals (SAI, strat warming).

It does appear this winter is slipping away and although a cold shot or two may pop up, the expectancy of some major cold has seriously diminished and it is probably back to the drawing boards as to the yin and yang of the weather drivers.

Why are sunspots to blame? There have been cold winters during or near solar maxima ala 1978-79. Solar activity is lower than it was during that winter.

It seems the culprit that has upset the apple cart this season is the low pressure over the Barents-Kara region. Cohen at al has said as much.

Edited January 4, 2015 by Weather-history

[stewfox]

Looking out of window it's freezing fog. All this talk of mild re models all looks very average January for me.

Edited January 4, 2015 by stewfox

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Stew, A very normal/avg January fair so far 

[MP-R]

I always recon, that if we haven't had a decent cold/snowy spell by about 15th January then it's very unlikely to occur during the final part of winter!

Of course, not always the case, notable exception March 2013 which was the result of exceptional SSW and mid-latitude cold!

 

Don't forget the January cold spell started around the 12th-14th and most places had snow by the 18th.

Edited January 4, 2015 by MP-R

[knocker]

Word is reaching me that concern is being shown in some quarters that if the winter continues in this vein the cost of counselling services will be out of the reach of many.

[IDO]

Why are sunspots to blame? There have been cold winters during or near solar maxima ala 1978-79. Solar activity is lower than it was during that winter.

It seems the culprit that has upset the apple cart this season is the low pressure over the Barents-Kara region. Cohen at al has said as much.

 

 

There is always the exception that proves the rule. However just saying the anomalous LP over the Barents-Kara region is the why and how is half the story. You have to ask why there is LP in that region? Maybe there is a direct correlation between the fall in ice in that area and the build of anomalous low pressure. So possibly the fall in ice in that region has caused the LP anomaly:

 

 

Yes in December there was a clear reduction in the Barents Sea. So what caused that? As you see, just saying it was Dr Cohen's anomalous LP over the Barents-Kara region is not really an answer. It is much more complicated than that. There is a reason for that anomaly and I find the two main drivers for long term pattens are CO2 and sunspots, so it is reasonable to link them to our current predicament.

[Long haul to mild]

A definite sense of "assume the worst" pervading this thread this morning.

 

When FI NE'lys were showing on the GFS and GEFS yesterday, a lot the comments were along the lines of "oh it's FI", "just a bit of eye candy", "it's miles away", "pinch of salt" etc. All quite sensible and correct.

 

Now following last night's 18Z and the 00Z runs which show a non-snowy MLB in FI, the comment trend is "we've lost our chance", "look to Feb", "disaster" etc.

 

Considering we are talking about the same time ranges (about 300 hours) why is today's forecast of a MLB any more likely to be correct than yesterday's snowy nirvanas?

 

FI is FI, occasionally a trend may be picked up on and verify but that doesn't happen with enough regularity that anyone should get too hung up on it.

 

My only conclusion is that after last winter, everyone's view has been tainted and assumes that the weather will be as bad as it can be for cold prospects!

 

There are times where I wish I could teleport back to the pre-internet days where the only long range forecast we had was Countryfile (or "weather for farmers" as it used to be called!) where a nice wintry surprise would be sprung on us at only a few day's notice!!

[Hocus Pocus]

It says it all when December was the coldest CET month of the year and it was still showing an anomaly of +0.8c. Though being in the south it appears to have been milder than that. With rising CO2's, the increased sun spot activity these have just squashed any other signals (SAI, strat warming).

It does appear this winter is slipping away and although a cold shot or two may pop up, the expectancy of some major cold has seriously diminished and it is probably back to the drawing boards as to the yin and yang of the weather drivers.

Have to disagree with the reasoning why IOD as North America is again experiencing bitter cold, it's the same old same old for me as in in when one part of the world is colder than average another is warmer than average. Also BB has hit the nail on the head yet every winter folks think that the UK has become an extension of Greenland and expect bitter cold. Edited January 4, 2015 by Hocus Pocus

[IDO]

Have to disagree with the reasoning why IOD as North America is again experiencing bitter cold, it's the same old same old for me as in in when one part of the world is colder than average another is warmer than average. Also BB has hit the nail on the head yet every winter folks think that the UK has become an extension of Greenland and expect bitter cold.

 

The reason the US is getting bitter cold is the repeating Pacific Rossby Wave. That pattern is systematic for cold reloads into the US and for warm sectors in the UK region. Without help from any other drivers then the UK will get the short end of the stick. At the moment I am unable to see this repeating pattern declining and with the MJO sulking around phase 6 and the SSW absent without leave we are stuck in a rut.

[Hocus Pocus]

The reason the US is getting bitter cold is the repeating Pacific Rossby Wave. That pattern is systematic for cold reloads into the US and for warm sectors in the UK region. Without help from any other drivers then the UK will get the short end of the stick. At the moment I am unable to see this repeating pattern declining and with the MJO sulking around phase 6 and the SSW absent without leave we are stuck in a rut.

I agree with that just not the other part that mentioned CO2 and Solar Output. I think both of those factors can be discounted looking at seasonal patterns as they stand. What has been interesting is the reluctance of the MJO to move into phase 7.

[Captain Shortwave]

A definite sense of "assume the worst" pervading this thread this morning.

 

When FI NE'lys were showing on the GFS and GEFS yesterday, a lot the comments were along the lines of "oh it's FI", "just a bit of eye candy", "it's miles away", "pinch of salt" etc. All quite sensible and correct.

 

Now following last night's 18Z and the 00Z runs which show a non-snowy MLB in FI, the comment trend is "we've lost our chance", "look to Feb", "disaster" etc.

 

Considering we are talking about the same time ranges (about 300 hours) why is today's forecast of a MLB any more likely to be correct than yesterday's snowy nirvanas?

 

FI is FI, occasionally a trend may be picked up on and verify but that doesn't happen with enough regularity that anyone should get too hung up on it.

 

My only conclusion is that after last winter, everyone's view has been tainted and assumes that the weather will be as bad as it can be for cold prospects!

 

There are times where I wish I could teleport back to the pre-internet days where the only long range forecast we had was Countryfile (or "weather for farmers" as it used to be called!) where a nice wintry surprise would be sprung on us at only a few day's notice!!

The GFS height rises were a response to the GFS prediction that the MJO would successfully move into phase 7, this is against all other output pretty much. This morning this has declined and we end up at phase 6 before moving back into the centre. This would suggest a significant cold spell is unlikely, but a spell like the end of December is possible and will probably happen to some degree.

Ultimately to me there is usually very little point looking beyond day 10. It's usually not good for the nerves

Awaits inevitable post about the GFS 06z op FI.......

Edited January 4, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[IDO]

I agree with that just not the other part that mentioned CO2 and Solar Output. I think both of those factors can be discounted looking at seasonal patterns as they stand. What has been interesting is the reluctance of the MJO to move into phase 7.

 

The solar output as others have mentioned is a definite player, long term via the min and maxs and short term with the geomagnetic input.

 

There is a solid correlation that colder winter's are more likely in solar minimums. Currently we are out of that phase so chances are inevitably reduced, this type of setup may have a different outcome in a minima. There has also been an increase in geomagnetic activity (including storms) Dec/Jan and these do effect the PV configuration.

[snowblizzard]

The solar output as others have mentioned is a definite player, long term via the min and maxs and short term with the geomagnetic input.

 

There is a solid correlation that colder winter's are more likely in solar minimums. Currently we are out of that phase so chances are inevitably reduced, this type of setup may have a different outcome in a minima. There has also been an increase in geomagnetic activity (including storms) Dec/Jan and these do effect the PV configuration.

Not so sure?

There are always area's of extreme cold somewhere in the NH during winter.

It's just that they are rarely situated over the UK!

We just live too close to that massive expanse of relatively warm water. 

Edited January 4, 2015 by snowblizzard

[Dorset_Weather]

These long range forecasts are going well!?!

I don't pretend to be an expert but why do people pretend to know what the weather will be doing 10+ days away let alone weather paterns over a month away.

all these LRF's that were predicting a "cold hearted" winter have slowly had to backtracked, all the so called background drivers have failed to materialise, strat warming is a failure and so is most of the othe so called drivers that people use for these hocus pocus forcasts.

only the Met office has any success with there LRF but even that would of been more luck than judgment, there 10-15 day forecast is the furthest I'll look ahead and has proved useful, anything else isn't worth the paper it's printed on and belongs on the front page of the Daily Express.

[Hocus Pocus]

The solar output as others have mentioned is a definite player, long term via the min and maxs and short term with the geomagnetic input.

There is a solid correlation that colder winter's are more likely in solar minimums. Currently we are out of that phase so chances are inevitably reduced, this type of setup may have a different outcome in a minima. There has also been an increase in geomagnetic activity (including storms) Dec/Jan and these do effect the PV configuration.

Oh I agree with that but this year solar output isn't really a player when you view the latest solar charts from NASA as there's been no notable increase in activity and the output remains on a slow downward curve. Now UV output I'm not so sure about as it's something I'm not really familiar with and the findings I've read don't really touch upon how this interacts with the atmosphere. The solar storms you mentioned, are they not the same ones that Piers Corbyn uses in his forecasts?

Sorry Mods we really are way off topic here.

Edited January 4, 2015 by Hocus Pocus

[knocker]

Tomorrows temps N. America

Chart weatherbell

 

[CanadaAl]

As everyone else is saying, it seems the turning point is around 16th/17th of January. I may well be eating my words but we could be looking at a decent shot of cold/snow . Even if it only lasts 5 days it's much better than last year  

[cyclonic happiness]

It comes to something when Egypt, Libya, Israel, Palestine, Greece, hell, even Los Angeles and Las Vegas, have all had more snow in the past 2 years than most of England.

 

I though Climate change was supposed to make England colder? (well, it's supposed to do whatever weather is currently affecting it)

[mushymanrob]

Id be very surprised if these current fi charts verify, fi charts have a pretty low verification rate whilst the noaa anomaly charts have we are told, a 70% odd verification rate when in consistent agreement, which currently they do.

So ignoring them because they currently dont support a favoured synoptic pattern is id suggest foolish

[cheshire snow]

I keep reading in the MOD thread about the MJO.

Please could I ask what the MJO is and why it is so

Important it reaches phase 7 to deliver a sustained cold

spell to the UK?

Thanks

C.S

[Barry12]

The solar output as others have mentioned is a definite player, long term via the min and maxs and short term with the geomagnetic input.

 

Nah, isn't that what James Madden bases his forecasts on?

[Eugene]

It comes to something when Egypt, Libya, Israel, Palestine, Greece, hell, even Los Angeles and Las Vegas, have all had more snow in the past 2 years than most of England.

 

I though Climate change was supposed to make England colder? (well, it's supposed to do whatever weather is currently affecting it)

 

 

Well i don't find it that surprising, all those places you mention are part of huge continental landmasses, we are just a tiny island at the end of a warm gulf stream.

[EML Network]

It's all a big fat pile of horse poo if you ask me. 

 

the 12z ensembles have once again stepped back from a cold solution setting up some time around 15th January onward, so that's it I'm officially giving up in the next 2 weeks delivering anything cold enough to produce snow down this way. 

 

And looking at how things are panning out, I'm almost at the point of giving up on the whole of January, so what the hell I might as well give up on Feb too. 

 

I bet it will snow on the sun before it ever snows here again, what a load of pants

[mushymanrob]

I keep reading in the MOD thread about the MJO.

Please could I ask what the MJO is and why it is so

Important it reaches phase 7 to deliver a sustained cold

spell to the UK?

Thanks

C.S

Google it... Its an index of tropical convection in the west pacific which drives our weather somehow. Trouble is, its not accurate. Each phase for each month supposed to lead to a certain synoptic pattern here in the uk. The fervent are pinning hopes of it because a phase 7 usually leads to something cold for the uk. It is however like other weather predictive tools, inaccurate.

Madden julian oscillation...