Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[John Snow]

That is hardly deep snow 3" is it???? People reading thread will get the wrong idea totally. Not to sure where you see 15cm of snow coming from JS

Having seen literally no snow since Jan 13 I would bank 1cm mate tbh

But I think Saturday into Sunday looks good, the low pressure should give us some back edge snow then Sunday we have persistent showers in a NE/E wind, I have high hopes. But happy with any sort of snow

Edited December 23, 2014 by John Snow

[PLANET THANET]

going by GFS then, saturday does look mild, but sunday turning cold

I hope you are correct, but bbc1 south east was saying that we are going back to mild which implies to me that we will be stuck in a rut for a while, we will see.

[John Snow]

It looks like the MO will be changing their outlook again then, chopping and changing every day so they are, no mention of the snow word in the update today but Shirley there would be a risk of snow on Sun and Mon with -8 T850 hPa covering most of the UK .Shirley you can't be serious..I am serious and don't call me Shirley..:-)

Maybe I have had too much mulled wine but I think there is a good chance of a Thames streamer on Sunday, winds are forecast to be E/NE and that is perfect conditions for a Thames streamer when you combine it with -8 uppers

[JP1972]

Maybe I have had too much mulled wine but I think there is a good chance of a Thames streamer on Sunday, winds are forecast to be E/NE and that is perfect conditions for a Thames streamer when you combine it with -8 uppers

 

"Maybe"?

 

Why the element of doubt?

 

You're talking pony my owd fruit!

[Captain Shortwave]

I thought it would be better put here, but the CMA is like the ECM except with the high centred over Scandinavia instead of Scotland, as such a much more efficient draw of cold air from the east/north east.

The run is frigid across the whole of Central/Northern Europe for most of the run.

 

Merry Christmas, a ramp from me  :smiliz19:

Edited December 23, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[southbank]

Seems a very typical , mundane winter for Uk , a switching between Pm/Tm airflow , seems a feb 2009 , dec 2010 , feb 1991 , jan 87 , feb 85 , dec 81 , jan 78 not likely at this stage not that I'm writing off winter but seems we are more likely in a NAO + phase then negative

[CanadaAl]

I don't know about anyone here (if this has already been mentioned i apologize) but if this high ridges up on the west coast of western canada causing a polar blast in the eastern canada/states i feel we could be in major trouble with the jet firing up and locking us in to roaring zonality. I worry the pacific high might become a stubborn block, I know the vortex is much weaker than last year but still a worry. Anyone's thoughts on this? 

[Daniel*]

Bah Humbug still much water to go under the bridge, this will go right to the wire. Not looking so good for Southern counties, however the parameters are the best we're looking at since March 2013.

We didn't have 12z UKMO-GM available for graphics however. Yes, some light snow around in places by Sunday in parts of S/SE (mostly uplands...snow more up northern England into Scotland on N/NW flank of low earlier in sequence) but anything in south not considered a big issue there as PPN rates will be rapidly fading by that stage (mostly dry/drying), coincidentally as the lower WBFL spreads south. Cold 'un though, for sure! MOGREPS 12z has 3-way split on low positioning / track but as per yesterday, SE'ly version remains most favoured for deterministic forecasting, with confidence growing now.

[Mark Neal.]

Bah Humbug still much water to go under the bridge, this will go right to the wire. Not looking so good for Southern counties, however the parameters are the best we're looking at since March 2013.

 

I'd settle for a bit of falling snow on the backedge- March 2013, its been too long!!!!  :smiliz23:

[Carlrg]

Atlantic train starting to roll back in as early as T144. 

[Banbury]

Edit - no it pushes it SE with a very favourable chart for members in the SE!!!

If that is the case certainly NO mention from JH on the Beeb, I am sure if snow was a possibility for that part of the world it would have been mentioned by now ??

[Met4Cast]

If that is the case certainly NO mention from JH on the Beeb, I am sure if snow was a possibility for that part of the world it would have been mentioned by now ??

 

The run hasn't even finished rolling out yet, plus there's no way the BBC are going to suddenly start forecasting snowfall based on a single 18z GFS run.

[Ali1977]

The METO have never forecast a potent easterly flow to happen after this cold spell, not sure these charts are telling the full story. Nice to watch however.

[Weather-history]

Express reporters dash to report the latest GFS shock run

[alex12]

is the netweather chat coming back online? with all this exciting weather coming up  

[Hocus Pocus]

Caution mass hysteria outbreak, remedy will be tomorrow's next set of runs.

[winterof79]

Phrases i cannot stand.

 

1.COMING ON BOARD = model output changed

2.STEPPING IN TO LINE /DRAGGED SCREAMING AND SHOUTING= nonsense they are computers

3.ALL TO PLAY FOR= ?

4.ITS LOOKING FLAT AND ZONAL= i hate cold weather

 

 

There thats better.Cant tell my son was up all night coughing can you  

[MPG]

Phrases i cannot stand.

 

1.COMING ON BOARD = model output changed

2.STEPPING IN TO LINE /DRAGGED SCREAMING AND SHOUTING= nonsense they are computers

3.ALL TO PLAY FOR= ?

4.ITS LOOKING FLAT AND ZONAL= i hate cold weather

 

 

There thats better.Cant tell my son was up all night coughing can you  

Ha...you can add

 

BULLISH

 

So many people use that.....

 

Also....Waxing and Waning........

 

People use it and dont know what it means......

Edited December 24, 2014 by MPG

[cobbett]

Warming up around new year and pretty dry down south. Not too much to shout about !

 

[snowangel32]

Warming up around new year and pretty dry down south. Not too much to shout about !

Exactly my thoughts whats to be excited about unless you live in the north and on high ground and an outside bet for the far se cant see the point in cold if no snow is the reward and from an IMBY point of view nothing to cheer about no snow for the central belt and sw bah humbug lol

[MidnightSnow]

Ha...you can add

 

BULLISH

 

So many people use that.....

 

Also....Waxing and Waning........

 

People use it and dont know what it means......

Singing from the same hyme sheet.

Good for coldies.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Singing from the same hyme sheet.

Good for coldies.

 

hyme?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

IDO not even more positive today! IDO, where is your Xmas spirit, so negative, onto my I.L now anyway

[hec1]

lol we cant even get a decent storm, nevermind snow

 

zzzzzzzzzzzzz

[snowsummer]

No moans. No ramps. No banter. Just a straight forward thanks to everyone on all the netweather forums for the wealth of information (and very often entertainment ) that they've given me in the last 14 months.so merry christmas to you all.now excuse me while I try to spent just ONE night away from model watching....(cold turkey could be an appropriate saying given the time of year!!)