Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[mushymanrob]

Well to be fair, I see nothing interesting in Atlantic storms. Just low after low bringing heavy rain and wind. To get the Azores High ridging up to the UK during the winter months is much more rare than low pressure off of the Atlantic is.

 

i love stormy skies as deep atlantic lows drive in interesting skyscapes, dramatic dark clouds, and wind and rain battering the windows.... (but only when i dont have to work in it! )

hmm.... looking like the latest date for the pattern change will be being put back yet again...  

[snowblizzard]

i love stormy skies as deep atlantic lows drive in interesting skyscapes, dramatic dark clouds, and wind and rain battering the windows.... (but only when i dont have to work in it! )

hmm.... looking like the latest date for the pattern change will be being put back yet again...

That stubborn Azores High, it could just wobble around in the same area for weeks on end!  

Edited December 15, 2014 by snowblizzard

[Evening thunder]

 

Ski resorts in Scotland are open. Had snow on the ground here a few days and Dec looking to come in lower than average CET. 
Hardly a "fail" is it?

I don't think it will come in below average now, looks like rising above average this week (risk of a record high daily CET this week) and probably won't fall below average again looking at the models. Probably only near average in the south this weekend too.

 

I do hope it isn't quite as hard to get cold to the south as some models suggest, especially if the Azores high ridges close to us, I don't want the weather to go all boring now I have some time to enjoy it lol.

 

 

Well to be fair, I see nothing interesting in Atlantic storms. Just low after low bringing heavy rain and wind. To get the Azores High ridging up to the UK during the winter months is much more rare than low pressure off of the Atlantic is.

 

Nothing wrong with that of course but I do sometimes get the impression that we aren't supposed to like stormy weather or find it interesting for the potential disruption it causes, which feels a bit odd on a weather forum (also a bit rich if anyone who likes cold and snow says that - last winter had the lowest 'excess' winter deaths on record)

 

A proper active Atlantic pattern usually has greater sunshine amounts too due to a more turbulent air mass with more PM air at times, unlike a constant mild cloudy drizzly TM flow over the top of a Bartlett. For example last winter was actually sunnier than average for most of England.

 

Though I can see why they could get tedious especially after last winter.

[MP-R]

The first half of December 2011 would be a lot more interesting than what is showing - plenty of PM outbreaks with the occasional mild wet day thrown in and a few frosts, even a light dusting of snow on the 16th. Though much like what is about to happen, everything went flat as a pancake which brought an incredibly dull (in more than one way) second half. Out of all the possible outcomes the UK could receive weather from, it's just typical that the one showing is TM air round the top of a displaced Azores high. I think I would actually prefer the benign southeasterlies that we had in the second half of November, at least that would bring average to just below average temperatures, likelihood of more sunshine and fog.

[Dibdabbers]

Seriously enough now.. why is it always such a let down

[Frosty_wsm]

I think the Southwest had it worse (better? ) than anywhere in 63 with plenty of battleground setups.

Exactly, In the classic East vs West battles of some of the 80s winters the south West was badly effected by snow and blizzards, '81 being one example, it's certainly not the worst place to live if you like snow although admittedly most East vs West battles since then have happened too far north and east for the south West to benefit.

If we ever have another one of those classic battles with high pressure to the north eastcausing fronts to stall before making much in roads into the uk then the south West would in fact be the place you want to be to see a lot of snow.

[TwisterGirl81]

Exactly, In the classic East vs West battles of some of the 80s winters the south West was badly effected by snow and blizzards, '81 being one example, it's certainly not the worst place to live if you like snow although admittedly most East vs West battles since then have happened too far north and east for the south West to benefit.

If we ever have another one of those classic battles with high pressure to the north eastcausing fronts to stall before making much in roads into the uk then the south West would in fact be the place you want to be to see a lot of snow.

Interesting I didn't know, I had heard about the winter of 81 but that was the year i was born in so wouldn't remember that.....From my memory for sure the winter of 2009/10 was the best winter for snow here, think  we had about 10 inches on one particular occassion, the snow stayed on the ground flor other a month and I think I remember there being a fair amount of snow in the early nighties as well from my memory but that is all that I can remember for Exeter....We've had brief snow showers but nothing noteworthy.....I really cannot imagine 15 foot snow drifts in the southwest, that must have been on the moors although with a storm that seviere i'm pretty sure most of the southwest got something, i'd love to know what Exeter saw during those 81 winter storms?!  Does nayone know?  I wonder what caused it (so we can keep an eye out on weather charts for any signs similar in the future)

 

I love severe atlantic storms and last year I was in my element as the southwest got a couple severe storms, although not as severe as the burns day which I vaguely remember dogding asphalt from appartment blocks walking home from school and also we were not aloud to leave the school building at all even for break, last year the storms it was definately some of the worst storms from my memory besides the burns day storm....This boring weather right now I really really dislike.

[Hocus Pocus]

i love stormy skies as deep atlantic lows drive in interesting skyscapes, dramatic dark clouds, and wind and rain battering the windows.... (but only when i dont have to work in it! )

hmm.... looking like the latest date for the pattern change will be being put back yet again...

It's looking like a winter full of potential, we just need to be patient for that potential to be unleashed...................... March 2015 no doubt just when I'm looking forward to spring warmth around the corner.

[TwisterGirl81]

Exactly, In the classic East vs West battles of some of the 80s winters the south West was badly effected by snow and blizzards, '81 being one example, it's certainly not the worst place to live if you like snow although admittedly most East vs West battles since then have happened too far north and east for the south West to benefit.

 

 

You are 100% correct Smartie, I can't tell you the amount of times on freezing cold winter days the rain has come and we've watched on the weather reports turning to snow just as it leaves Devon into Somerset or gloustershire/Wiltshire, it happens that way 99% time

[SLEETY]

UK rarely get cold weather until after Xmas check archives if we can get blizzards with 4ft snow drifts in mid march two years ago there is weeks of cold to come yet

[MP-R]

Just for a bit of fun I've dug out the dates for the first snow 'falling' and first snow 'lying at 1cm or more' since the turn of the century at this location. It would appear that the average first day of snow falling here in December 18th (excluding 2013), and the first day of snow lying is December 28th (excluding April 2008 which was unusual).

 

2013-14 - 

2012-13 - 04th November / 14th January

2011-12 - 14th December / 16th December

2010-11 - 26th November / 26th November

2009-10 - 17th December / 21st December

2008-09 - 04th January / 02nd February

2007-08 - 11th January / 06th April

2006-07 - 24th January / 24th January

2005-06 - 25th November / 25th November

2004-05 - 20th November / 19th December

2003-04 - 03rd January / 28th January

2002-03 - 10th December / 10th December

2001-02 - 22nd December / 29th December

2000-01 - 27th December / 28th December

 

That fits my lack of expectation for a meaningful cold spell before Christmas. It quite often takes until Christmas for the Atlantic to quieten down enough to better allow for cold spells. Another interesting point is that 9 of those first snowfalls came from northerlies, not easterlies. What's more is that the snowfall on 19th December 2004 came from conditions very similar to the last week with the jet on a NW-SE axis and a shortwave forming over the West Country, tracking south into the Channel with cold air turning rain to snow at the last minute, very unexpected.

 

So, history aside (modds feel free to move this if it's better suited somewhere else), I await albeit with a lack of patience for signs of cold arriving from the NW-NE from Christmas onwards, most likely from amplification upstream moving across the Atlantic. Unfortunately I can't see that happening for as long as the Azores High is so close to the UK but we shall see over the coming week what unfolds in the models. On the plus side, despite the frustrating situation the UK seems to find itself in, the PV remains decidedly feeble, we just need a trigger to make something favourable happen.

[Frosty_wsm]

Interesting I didn't know, I had heard about the winter of 81 but that was the year i was born in so wouldn't remember that.....

'81 was awesome here, I still have some photos from that time, considering we're at sea level we had about 2ft of level snow and that's no exaggeration either! I'm not 100% sure but I think that was also the same event when we couldn't even open the back door due to a snow drift going all the way up to the top of the door.

Snowfall like that I haven't witnessed here since but you know, all we need is high pressure to the north east with enough influence to halt those low pressure systems from pushing too far into the uk from the south West, causing them to stall and scenes like that could easily happen again in the south west.

[mushymanrob]

Yes I suppose when you don't have to go anywhere, they're not too bad. I actually didn't mind them at first, but last winter completely changed that. When you have to walk for 25-30 minutes in 60mph winds and horizontal icy cold rain, every morning and every evening for three months, you would completely change your opinion. It's just not fun even the slightest.

 

...now youll understand why i dont like cold weather... having to work in it in the past, even in -12c , i felt sick with cold.

[Gavin Hannah]

Having had a thought about it, I reckong the Azores high finally moving may be in our favour this year.  I can't see it setting up shop of the south of France and ruining our prospects of cold and snow either before xmas or into the new year.  A few have mentioned that the jackpot pattern change will be hard to pin down by the models and this is usually the case.  My gut feeling (bro-science) tells me that once the azores HP moves, we could lucky. If it moves far enough NE, the Jet could tank southwards and who knows what will happen!

[mushymanrob]

Never had a problem with people who don't like cold. I only really like it when it brings the possibility of very heavy snow. After a while though, it does my head in. That was the case in spring 2013,

We concur, i like a good blizzard but not long lasting freezes nor middling cold or snowless cold.

[snowice]

http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/NH.html very interesting explanation in relation to the polar vortex and how it can disrupt the flow of cold and send it our Way.

[cheeky_monkey]

, i'd love to know what Exeter saw during those 81 winter storms?!  Does nayone know?  .

I was at Junior school in Exeter 78-81..was there for the great blizzard of Feb 1978 winter 78-79 and December 1981..huge amounts of snow in all those years esp Feb 1978 where drifts were up to the roofs and my dad's car was completely buried on the drive...in fact only the huge snowfall of Jan 7-8 2011 when i was living in Edmonton Canada was comparable to the Blizzard of Feb 1978..thats how bad it was...probably a one in a hundred year event I would guess.

[JOPRO]

Good to see the "mild snap" keeps getting downgraded. Hopefully it will be a blink and you miss it 36 hour event!

[TonyH]

The mild this week has always looked to last 48 to 60 hours not sure I follow your point. Very mild is a better description however!

[knocker]

I see it has been suggested on the other thread that those who have spent tireless hours searching for cold deserve a reward. Perhaps a book by James Thurber would be suitable.

Edited December 16, 2014 by knocker

[Peejayem]

I see it has been suggested on the other thread that those who have spent tireless hours searching for cold deserve a reward. Perhaps a book by James Thurber would be suitable.

"The Secret Life of Walter Mitty" or "My World and Welcome To It"?

[mushymanrob]

Good to see the "mild snap" keeps getting downgraded. Hopefully it will be a blink and you miss it 36 hour event!

 

... and today was supposed to be cold, but in the sun its quite pleasant, no cold noses, no being wrapped up too much, no frost, so delighting as what you suggest is a downgrade , cuts both ways!

[Gavin Hannah]

... and today was supposed to be cold, but in the sun its quite pleasant, no cold noses, no being wrapped up too much, no frost, so delighting as what you suggest is a downgrade , cuts both ways!

 

Was very frosty this morning at 7:20 when I went to my car, but temps were on the rise. Was 0 when I left, and 2 degrees 30 minutes later at work.  It is nice to see the mild being refered to as a 'blip' though. How many winters have we suffered when the mild was not a blip lol.

[mushymanrob]

Was very frosty this morning at 7:20 when I went to my car, but temps were on the rise. Was 0 when I left, and 2 degrees 30 minutes later at work.  It is nice to see the mild being refered to as a 'blip' though. How many winters have we suffered when the mild was not a blip lol.

 

well tbh i didnt get up till 8.30 so i dont know if we had a frost here or not! lol. but i dont think my o/h scraped her windscreen..

[snowangel32]

well tbh i didnt get up till 8.30 so i dont know if we had a frost here or not! lol. but i dont think my o/h scraped her windscreen..

Just to add to the frost saga there was a nice frost at 6.00, and the mild in the long term has got downgraded a few days ago it was showing the Azores high all over us but now its 50\50 with more and more cold scenarios and runs showing up for the festive period and beyond, so enjoy your mild weather this week because after Xmas all bets are off. Bring on the snow and frost.