Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Tony27]

I meet alot of people, very few like snow and cold. This weather is being enjoyed by all i meet. Family, freinds, customers, fellow detectorists, gardeners/outdoor workers.

I was astounded to discover on weather forums the liking to fever level, cold. I still dont understand it.

why are you shocked that people like cold weather and snow on a weather forum? cold and snow is very rare in this country so its understandable people want to see something different to the norm, warmth and sun isn't rare in this country contrary to popular belief we've had weather like today since march, i used to love hot weather but for some reason i can't cope with hot weather any more, but i still like sunshine and warmth in spring and summer even though i prefer rain and cool temps in summer more, why do you hate snow so much?

 

sorry for being off topic please move posts to relevant thread they shouldn't be deleted 

Edited October 27, 2014 by Tony27

[phil nw.]

why are you shocked that people like cold weather and snow on a weather forum? cold and snow is very rare in this country so its understandable people want to see something different to the norm, warmth and sun isn't rare in this country contrary to popular belief we've had weather like today since march, i used to love hot weather but for some reason i can't cope with hot weather any more, but i still like sunshine and warmth in spring and summer even though i prefer rain and cool temps in summer more, why do you hate snow so much?

 

sorry for being off topic please move posts to relevant thread they shouldn't be deleted 

A lot of this is general weather chat guys and really should go in that area,

Please help the team by self moderating and post on topic in here.

 

Just to remind people this thread is for a moan or ramp about current model outputs-the clue is in the title.

 

Ta.

[Chris K]

For who?

Cold bias here sucks, thankfully in the real world most prefer warmth to cold.

Id be happy for a winter of 7-15c, id hate another 63.

 

"Cold Bias" ???

 

A) if you feel that was a biased post from me then sorry it was unintentional.

 

B) To be honest...what do you expect on a weather forum? I fail to see how we can prevent a differing number of people who like different weather types. I would have thought the fact that the majority of members on here live in the UK and considering we tend to get snow much less often than other places around the world, means we are more likely to see a higher number of those who enjoy a bit of cold and snow compared to a milder winter.

 

Good thing I like all weather types in the "real world"...just not persistent patterns of grey weather that my post was meant to suggest.

Edited October 27, 2014 by Chris K

[Polar Maritime]

Again can we please stick to discussion around the Models, And cut the bickering please.

 

Many Thanks, PM

[knocker]

But this "cold bias" should not be transferred and become a selective bias when interpreting the model output. It's misleading to others reading the thread.

[Chris K]

But this "cold bias" should not be transferred and become a selective bias when interpreting the model output. It's misleading to others reading the thread.

 

I totally agree, but I am not sure how that can be easily enforced to be honest. Some people will naturally select outputs that suit their "tastes" more. Difficult in the world of forums unless it is strictly moderated for scientific purposes.

Edited October 27, 2014 by Chris K

[knocker]

I'm sorry how is discussing bias in model interpretation not model banter?

[knocker]

A tweet just now from Ryan Maue. Anybody got a clue what he's on about?

 

Any official word yet for potentially catastrophic NOAA satellite data outage? @NOAASatellites & everyone conspicuously silent.

[MP-R]

On the basis that this October has been quite different to most years, I think we just have to try and pick out some consistencies in the models to get an idea of what November may bring. Last October was similar to 2001 and was followed by a November similar to 2001 for example. This year has not been like many Octobers.

 

Personally, I really want to see the jet diving south in November. I still stand by the fact that most often the wettest Novembers are followed by decent winters for cold and snow e.g. 2002, 2009, 2012 etc. There have been hints of this in FI but as ever there have been swings between the Atlantic blowing full force across us, a more tradition 'ridge, depression' scenario and this annoying Euro high/Azores high combination continuing.

[Yarmy]

A tweet just now from Ryan Maue. Anybody got a clue what he's on about?

 

Any official word yet for potentially catastrophic NOAA satellite data outage? @NOAASatellites & everyone conspicuously silent.

 

There have been technical problems for a few days:

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/10/22/weather-service-stops-receiving-satellite-data-issues-warning-about-forecast-reliability/

 

Undoubtedly this must be affecting the models, but who knows to what degree?

Edited October 27, 2014 by Yarmy

[knocker]

I just wondered what he meant by 'potentially'. Presumably a possible increase with the problems.

[mushymanrob]

why are you shocked that people like cold weather and snow on a weather forum?

 

because its the level of cold liking and the ridiculous extent people go to in trying to interpret or spot the next cold spell. its out of kilter of what the general public like.

i like weather, i have preferances but its the varied weather in all its types i enjoy watching, following, seeing. i assumed that other weather lovers were the same.... i was wrong.

 

But this "cold bias" should not be transferred and become a selective bias when interpreting the model output. It's misleading to others reading the thread.

 

and that is the salient point.... given that the majority of people want to know what might happen, viewing the md forum in winter gives a totally false impression as to the likely weather we are likely to have. the forum is viewed by loads to get an idea, they come away expecting a cold snowy spell is likely when in reality it isnt. the cold chances are discussed in depth, the non cold options that usually ourwhelm the cold ones are ignored.

[Polar Maritime]

It's the same year in year out Mushy, In Summer some chase the heat and in Winter some chase the cold. More members are on-line during Winter probably due to darker nights and bad weather, And the majority are looking for cold/snow for the festive season. But as you quite rightly say, Bias can lead some members down the garden path, As they read what they want to hear with-in there own bias.. Nothings changed, It's all part and parcel of the "silly season" that makes N/Weather such a fantastic Forum over the long dark Winter days/nights.

 

And on that note let's get back to discussing "Model" banter/moans/ramps. Not how they are interpreted by different members. 

Edited October 28, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[mushymanrob]

It's the same year in year out Mushy, In Summer some chase the heat and in Winter some chase the cold. More members are on-line during Winter probably due to darker nights and bad weather, And the majority are looking for cold/snow for the festive season. But as you quite rightly say, Bias can lead some members down the garden path, As they read what they want to hear with-in there own bias.. Nothings changed, It's all part and parcel of the "silly season" that makes N/Weather such a fantastic Forum over the long dark Winter days/nights.

 

And on that note let's get back to discussing "Model" banter/moans/ramps. Not how they are interpreted by different members. 

 

ive said for years now that there ought to be an md thread for the cold lovers, and an md thread for the 'realistic' outlook. that way everyone would be happy and we wouldnt lose so many people over winter.

[Polar Maritime]

What about the "heat" lovers.. Anyway lets draw a line under this, And once again get back on topic. Any more off topic posts will be deleted.

Edited October 28, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Eugene]

Not sure why the gloom today, ECM 00Z brings in much fresher cooler atlantic air next week than today and Friday, temps back to where they should be and feeling chilly in the wind, great to see these charts in early November if you ask me.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

[Milhouse]

Yes, temps turning cooler into next week looks likely. Back down to roughly 8-13c going by the GFS 12z. Thats after another short mild spell Thursday-Saturday.

[phil nw.]

... but heat lovers are outnumbered 30/1 theres no comparison between summer and winter...

This thread is for anyone to moan or ramp cold or warm or whatever Mushy,hopefully with reference to the models.

It is also for those who hope for different charts so there is leeway for all model views/hopes in here.

To further clarify or re-iterate the other or main MOD thread is where we discuss what the charts actually show.

As we all know it does get busy at times in Winter in there as a lot of members focus on cold but as long as what is posted is in the outputs then it's up for discussion.

If some focus on cold charts but they back it up then fair enough.

We shouldn't discourage any on topic views because of preference cold or mild but often in Winter a large number of members look for cold and it's just the way it is and always has been in my and your time on here.

Maybe let this go now Mushy as I believe you have made your points clear enough already.

Please pm me or any one in the team if you have any further issues rather then continue in here.

Edited October 28, 2014 by phil nw.

[mushymanrob]

No probs phil

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

OMGoodness this is the first bit of excitement in the mod thread for god knows how long.

I wonder how long it will be until it goes in to total meltdown and bans are handed out lol.

[phil nw.]

OMGoodness this is the first bit of excitement in the mod thread for god knows how long.

I wonder how long it will be until it goes in to total meltdown and bans are handed out lol.

Yes a first sign of some real cold next week.Excitement building already.

We hope that members can use this thread for ramping and the more reasoned views go in the main thread so things can run smoothly for all.

[stodge]

Yes a first sign of some real cold next week.Excitement building already.

We hope that members can use this thread for ramping and the more reasoned views go in the main thread so things can run smoothly for all.

My view is that some of those who post every six to twelve hours in the main thread would be better using the In Depth Discussion thread if they are going to post loads of charts.

[knocker]

I'm beginning to feel a cold chill down my spine. I wonder what it could be?

[Nouska]

I'm beginning to feel a cold chill down my spine. I wonder what it could be?

 

Aaah .....  the first wafts of the Siberian silly season.......time for us old codgers to get the soup, slippers and slanket before viewing model output discussion.

[knocker]

Aaah .....  the first wafts of the Siberian silly season.......time for us old codgers to get the soup, slippers and slanket before viewing model output discussion.

 

Yes indeed Nouska. I think there is a strong case for letting them out in stages; a bit like staggered school holidays.