iceland Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

[john pike]

http://en.vedur.is/#tab=vatnafar

 

flow at svarta and laxa  looks to be increasing tonight

 

worth keeping an eye on these for now

 

http://vmkerfi.vedur.is/vatn/vdv_data.php?Type=VV&Station=Nor%F0urland@@221&First=2014-09-10%2001%3A00&Last=2014-09-12%2001%3A00&Pageid=386&PageName=Svart%E1%3B%20B%E1r%F0ardal%3B%20V324&PageType=Graph&Nrofgraphs=1&Graphnr=1&Plot=&lower=0&upper=50&X=0&language_id=4&screen_width=1689&screen_height=860&request_type=2&qc_view=0&borun=0#

[john pike]

Thursday

11.09.2014 00:07:38 64.617 -17.394 7.2 km 5.2 99.0 6.9 km ESE of Bárðarbunga

 

 

now on mo site

[karyo]

The latest update from Jon Frimman (from last night) is very interesting! He said that the Bardarbunga caldera collapse is now inevitable!

 

Karyo

[Midlands Ice Age]

Very quiet on here tis morning!

 

 

Is that good news that the eruption is dieing down?

 

I have checked the 2 webcams this morning ------ 

Cam1 Looks about te same as previous though with possibly slightly less from the fissure. 

 

Cam2 looks intersting.

I had problems seeing anything anything on this yesterday. Today however it is clear.

It also seems as though the magnification has changed and we are now closer in to the fissure.

The area where the smoke is rising is in the middle foreground and it looks as though further away there are 2 more either flames or steam rising further up the hillside.

Is this still the original fissure  or has something happened overnight?

MIA

[frogesque]

The latest update from Jon Frimman (from last night) is very interesting! He said that the Bardarbunga caldera collapse is now inevitable!

 

Karyo

Would that be collapse as in BOOOM! or collapse as in slump?

[swebby]

Anyone with a better understanding than me have any views on the Askja plots from the IMO?

 

and the tremor graph also from the IMO

 

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/ask.gif

 

Baseline noise started around 10am yesterday morning with some unusual small events that I suggested may have been rockfall or human interference but it seems to have continued for 24hrs now.  Picking up noise from the lava field maybe or something more worrying or nothing out of the norm?

[karyo]

Would that be collapse as in BOOOM! or collapse as in slump?

 

Boom or as I like to call it chica boom!

[swebby]

Would that be collapse as in BOOOM! or collapse as in slump?

 

Reading JF's blog last night he said it could be either  but is clearly concerned about the booom option.  He was also expressing concerns about the event spreading from bara leading to sudden eruptions without forewarning from neighbouring volcanoes and the possibility of a dyke propagating sw from the caldera.  All these scenarios could be very very bad. I should add that he adds the caveat that he is not an expert and that they are his ideas only so please do not automatically think the end of the world is nigh.

 

Link is  here http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/

Edited September 11, 2014 by swebby

[picog]

The latest update from Jon Frimman (from last night) is very interesting! He said that the Bardarbunga caldera collapse is now inevitable!

 

Karyo

Does that mean that if the caldera collapses, all 70-80 square km will collapse. Or perhaps it's just part of the caldera?

[karyo]

Does that mean that if the caldera collapses, all 70-80 square km will collapse. Or perhaps it's just part of the caldera?

Nobody can give you a definite answer on this. We have to keep watching!

 

Karyo

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Several of the bigger quakes at the cauldera are at 5km deep or less.

 

I think Jon is right and that the cauldera will collapse, could be a slow burner but I think there's a distinct possibility of a big bang

[Rustynailer]

Anyone with a better understanding than me have any views on the Askja plots from the IMO?

 

and the tremor graph also from the IMO

 

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/ask.gif

 

Baseline noise started around 10am yesterday morning with some unusual small events that I suggested may have been rockfall or human interference but it seems to have continued for 24hrs now.  Picking up noise from the lava field maybe or something more worrying or nothing out of the norm?

Looks like a much bigger version of what happened yesterday, maybe somewhere along the fissure or Askja herself.   

 

There are scientists staying in the Hut at Askja, either its them making noise or it is the Earth, one or the other.

 

Looks like it is a real one only auto to 90% at the moment , so position and size etc, subject to change.   

 

 

SO2 looks to be grouping above Russia, I would think this will circumnavigate the globe at this latitude in a couple of weeks if this output continues from the gassious fissure eruption, perhaps Bada caldera may change this one way or the other...

Edited September 11, 2014 by Rustynailer

[swebby]

Those events today are pretty much 24hrs after yesterdays and have a similar profile (if not magnitude) so I am now thinking man made, I can almost picture a change of shift for the scientists.  I would have assumed the seismometer would have been located a good distance from any stationing of personnel but maybe not.  If there is a generator running at the hut then that could also explain the baseline noise.

[Rustynailer]

Those events today are pretty much 24hrs after yesterdays and have a similar profile (if not magnitude) so I am now thinking man made, I can almost picture a change of shift for the scientists.  I would have assumed the seismometer would have been located a good distance from any stationing of personnel but maybe not.  If there is a generator running at the hut then that could also explain the baseline noise.

I think we will know for sure if the quake makes the 99% cut off, or is removed by the IMO. There does appear to be a slight correlation RE:- ASK and DYN stations, but I am not sure either way 100%.

Looking at the Auto map I posted above it is real, but I suppose machines are fallible, we will see.

 

Slight match ...ask...dyn...  Changes in magma pressure are hard to interpret as are non fracturing movements and blockages underground, when dealing with semi-solid crystal mush, it is almost impossible to nail it.

 

Arr wait a minute this happened yesterday aswell, all change...just look at the fissure cloud all disorganized and reduced compared to half an hour ago.   Pressure change at the vent I think, something going on out of sight under that glacier, or toward Askja, maybe. 

IMO brown and green Askja chart has stopped, could be nothing... Hope scientists are OK

Edited September 11, 2014 by Rustynailer

[Snow Queen one]

Can anybody tell me wyh the small tornadoes are bieng created on cam 1 of live feed?

[Rustynailer]

Can anybody tell me wyh the small tornadoes are bieng created on cam 1 of live feed?

Convection, or rather super convection off of the 600 degrees hot lava field. Sort of storm chase from the armchair.

 

Here is a tweet grab of the same thing the other day.  

 

 

Well it looks like Askja station ASK has broken down, I hope they service it soon.

Edited September 11, 2014 by Rustynailer

[Snow Queen one]

ty Rusty cams gone all misty now i will continue to watch.

[jonboy]

As an aside to the wondeful updates on this thread which is truely fascinating. As there is more and more talk of Booom could someone outline what the consequenses might be for bad, very bad and very very bad outcomes noted in some of the posts. Many thanks and again great thread.

[Rustynailer]

ty Rusty cams gone all misty now i will continue to watch.

The wind has changed, it has reveled a possible hot spot, or rather a cloud that may stay above it, may stay being the operative here...

 

Comparison with the infamous Laki eruption...

 

 

The haze on the Mila cams is gas from the eruption and dust from the previously very dusty plain, probably at deadly levels today maybe even by the camera station, but definitely fatal down by the lava field

Edited September 11, 2014 by Rustynailer

[Midlands Ice Age]

As a newbie can I ask a question?

Is the Mila 2 cam looking towards Barda or is it situated on Bada looking away?

Same goes for Mila Cam 1, though I recognise that it is further away and looking from a position further left than cam 2.

MIA 1

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

As a newbie can I ask a question?

Is the Mila 2 cam looking towards Barda or is it situated on Bada looking away?

Same goes for Mila Cam 1, though I recognise that it is further away and looking from a position further left than cam 2.

MIA 1

You aren't a newbie, you're an old hand now

 

I think both are situated away from the volcano with 1 being quite a lot further away than 2.

 

I wouldn't like to be the bloke servicing 2

[swebby]

Hi MIA

 

To the best of my knowledge the mila cams are next to each other and are located on the top of Mt Vadalda (this is SE of askja) and are both pointing SW across the holuhraun lava field towards barda.  See here http://www.vatnajokulsthjodgardur.is/media/fixlandia/N&A_100k_ISL_20131022.jpg

 

On cam 1 - Bada effectively takes up the right hand side of the horizon as shown on screen and it is regularly obscured by the fumes from the fissure eruption that is directly in front of it but it can occasionally be seen if conditions are favourable.  The leftside of the horizon on cam 1 (above the radar dome) is the tip of the dyngjuojkull glacier.

 

Will not comment about cam 2 as it zooms in plus it may also have be repositioned slightly over the past few days.

[Rustynailer]

As an aside to the wondeful updates on this thread which is truely fascinating. As there is more and more talk of Booom could someone outline what the consequenses might be for bad, very bad and very very bad outcomes noted in some of the posts. Many thanks and again great thread.

Well without being alarmist, I will give a calmly spoken version   

 

Caldera collapse version 1 the slow collapse, lots of small eruptions out gassing and occasional travel disruption. Could go on for months, The fissure independent of the volcano will stop on its own timetable.

 

Caldera collapse version 2 the partial collapse of say one flank of the volcano down the side and through the glacier, bad glacial floods with icebergs crashing down the flood plane the size of several streets in my local town, very disruptive to air travel in the area, dangerous for Icelanders may even kill, probably over pretty quick. Though the fissure eruption would stop when it wants.

 

Caldera collapse version 3 sudden total collapse of 80 square kilometers of ice at 600m thick on average down in to the very hot magma chamber of the worlds largest stratoVolcano, extremely loud and damaging explosion, debris of which could travel over 100 miles, large 7+ mag earthquake, possible local tsunamis when the glacial floods reach the sea, maximum disruption for months as the stuff that has gone up in to the sky slowly falls out. This will kill people in Iceland.

The eruption its self would end there, but the fissure eruption will stop when it wants.

 

Version 4. No caldera collapse and the whole episode dies down, at the fissure and Badas discretion.

 

Version 5 the fissure goes on and Bada does not much at all, in 6 months we will be noticing the effects of all the SO2 loading up the atmosphere like it did with Laki eruption.

 

 

My take is version 2 with a flank collapse NE quadrant of Badabunga. 90% chance in my opinion. Has been the same for me since I noticed the ring faulting and the potential fissure undermining of Badabunga. over a week ago I think.

 

I must say we may notice the effects of this volcanic episode in the UK, but only environmentally, with dust/ash and gasses, not with direct effects of eruptions and quakes. How bad we get it is anywhere from nothing to a Laki style event.

 

Don't forget, this could all just stop and that will be the end of the matter, no body knows for sure, no scientists have ever seen this before it is new to them.

 

Here is a wiki on Laki as I mentioned this volcano and its effects http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laki

 

 

Somebody on another site has done a calculation of the energy released by the quakes so far in this eruptive episode, it is truly massive, the Russian Tsar Bomb was 50 megaton this episode has done 75 megaton up to now...

Edited September 11, 2014 by Rustynailer

[Freddie123]

I can't see the cams from my work laptop, I think my browser is too old. Is White van man showing on Cam 2 like yesterday?  He has a hell of a view, or a view of hell depending on how you look at it. It must be 'relatively' safe there because that radar is a rather expensive piece of kit and I expect they would rather not loose it under a lava flow, flood or hit by a projectile.

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

You aren't a newbie, you're an old hand now

 

I think both are situated away from the volcano with 1 being quite a lot further away than 2.

 

I wouldn't like to be the bloke servicing 2

 NNW,

I agree I have got old hands!!!

but I am new to this area compared to JP and Rusty.

I missed the earliest posts on the thread and I am not certain whether we are looking away from or towards Barda.

I understand the fissure is running ENE.

MIA