iceland Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

[Gael_Force]

 

Increased subsidence in the caldera of Bardarbunga volcano is a cause for grave concern, due to possible large eruption and glacial flood, says Vidir Reynisson, director of the Civil Protection Agency in Iceland. The subsidence is thought to increase the likelyhood of an eruption in Bardarbunga.

 

http://ruv.is/frett/gravely-concerned-about-bardarbunga

[summer fun]

 

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=84316&src=twitter-nh

 

Couple of nice true colour images here.

[john pike]

Tuesday
09.09.2014 21:44:45 64.638 -17.554 6.9 km 4.3 99.0 1.3 km W of Bárðarbunga Tuesday
09.09.2014 21:43:11 64.644 -17.542 7.6 km 3.9 99.0 0.8 km WNW of Bárðarbunga

Tuesday
09.09.2014 22:10:01 64.620 -17.405 3.3 km 3.6 99.0 6.3 km ESE of Bárðarbunga

finally updated

 

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/#view=table

 

Edited September 10, 2014 by john pike

[The PIT]

If Bada caldera goes up they won't be a tsunami as it's far too inland. The caldera collapse could still be  relatively quite affair. The big danger is if the magma is suddenly drawn off. At the moment this isn't happening allowing a steady sinking. If the magma is suddenly withdrawn the collapse will be round the ring fractures as too how big it will be nobody knows. The other possibility the slow sinking will continue with some Pheatic explosions blowing smaller caldera's or craters.

[picog]

http://ruv.is/frett/gravely-concerned-about-bardarbunga

At the end of the article it states that the caldera covers an area of about 80 square kilometers. Is that correct? I thought it might reach to several hundred squre meters, but not anywhere near 80km.

[Filski]

If Bada caldera goes up they won't be a tsunami as it's far too inland. The caldera collapse could still be  relatively quite affair. The big danger is if the magma is suddenly drawn off. At the moment this isn't happening allowing a steady sinking. If the magma is suddenly withdrawn the collapse will be round the ring fractures as too how big it will be nobody knows. The other possibility the slow sinking will continue with some Pheatic explosions blowing smaller caldera's or craters.

I'm guessing it would resemble this at the end.

[Yarmy]

At the end of the article it states that the caldera covers an area of about 80 square kilometers. Is that correct? I thought it might reach to several hundred squre meters, but not anywhere near 80km.

 

 "The caldera is about 70 square kilometres,..."

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bárðarbunga

 

The definition of a caldera is any volcanic crater greater than 1km in diameter. Bard is about 10km by 7km.

Edited September 10, 2014 by Yarmy

[Rustynailer]

If Bada caldera goes up they won't be a tsunami as it's far too inland. The caldera collapse could still be  relatively quite affair. The big danger is if the magma is suddenly drawn off. At the moment this isn't happening allowing a steady sinking. If the magma is suddenly withdrawn the collapse will be round the ring fractures as too how big it will be nobody knows. The other possibility the slow sinking will continue with some Pheatic explosions blowing smaller caldera's or craters.

 Just from the shock wave splintering the ice if its a big blast, like St Helen's, the glacial ice could make it to the sea in the NE, then a tsunami would happen, local, slight effects in NW Europe, probable no more than a couple of feet, but that is a worse case blast, sorry I was tired when I wrote that above... The worse case of 80 odd square Km of ice being blasted laterally out to the NE.

Something like this from 1787 only bigger I think, see quote..

 

Quote prof Dave Mc Garvie :-

There is a famous eye-witness account of an eruption in 1787 at the ice-capped Öraefajökull volcano in SE Iceland, in which hot water and mud was pouring forth, and because it lubricated the base of a valley glacier the ice flowed down onto the lowlands 'like molten metal poured from a smelter'. Unfortunately some lives lost during this eruption and one body was found 'parboiled' after immersion in the hot water+mud mix.

 

The 5.5 mag this morning has coincided with a drop in EQ activity, this could be significant, today we may well find out.

My best guess is still flank collapse into the fissure damage NE quarter Badabunga, VE 6+ with violent plinian activity. When do I think this will happen, I doubt we will get to weekend without the caldera giving up.

The lava is now leaving even quicker, the destabilization is worsening and the voids left by this evacuation are precipitous.

 

The chances of this stopping and going back to sleep are real , but even if it does the volcano structure has in my opinion been mortally effected, it will collapse I think.

 

The VE6+ I mentioned above will cause significant disruption to air travel in the immediate area and depending on the weather anywhere it takes it,  the satellite photographs will give the best clues as to how big it will get

 

The Icelandic officials do not voice "Grave concern about Badabunga caldera" without there being good reasons.

Edited September 10, 2014 by Rustynailer

[Yarmy]

Honestly, Rusty, I think you might explode before Bardy does. 

 

It's gripping viewing though, without a doubt. What an age we live in when we can witness these events unfold live with a wealth of information at our fingertips.

[Rustynailer]

Honestly, Rusty, I think you might explode before Bardy does. 

 

It's gripping viewing though, without a doubt. What an age we live in when we can witness these events unfold live with a wealth of information at our fingertips.

 I probably will, can't get anything done with out checking the graphs

[frogesque]

Still lurking in this superb thread.

 

Will she, won't she, will she, won't she? It's like some teenage drama fest with the gods rolling dice.

 

Rusty, I particularly liked this line of yours:

 

"The chances of this being filmed by Mila are good but bare in mind the camera is in range of the artillery."

 

Edited September 10, 2014 by frogesque

[BornFromTheVoid]

Sorry if this has been posted

 

Craters have appeared on two glaciers in Iceland

 

The recent volcano eruptions in Iceland have created enormous circular depressions in two of the country’s glaciers. These dramatic features, which differ from each other in their origins and shape, are visible from the air.

A reconnaissance flight over Bárðar­bunga, the volcano where the first earthquakes were detected last month, shows that the ice over the caldera has fallen nearly 20 meters across an area about 7 kilometers long and 5 kilometers wide. This is a change in volume of 250 million cubic meters. The scientists at the University of Iceland attribute this shift to a movement of the base of the glacier rather than to melting. Magma has drained from a chamber under the glacier as it moves to the northeast and erupts onto the surface. As the chamber has emptied, the rock above it has shifted downward, carrying the glacier ice downward as well. This is the largest subsidence that has been observed in Iceland since measurements of the surface were begun over fifty years ago. This movement does not seem to be associated with geothermal activity at Bárðar­bunga, or of a higher likelihood of an eruption there. A recent photo from a helicopter flight shows the large extent and relative shallowness of this cauldron (the technical term for these craters).

 

 

The rest of the article is here  http://glacierhub.org/2014/09/09/craters-have-appeared-on-two-glaciers-in-iceland/

[Buzzit]

 

Sorry if this has been posted

 

Craters have appeared on two glaciers in Iceland

The rest of the article is here  http://glacierhub.org/2014/09/09/craters-have-appeared-on-two-glaciers-in-iceland/

 

Thats an incredible photo - thanks BFTV

[Buckster]

On Mila cams whrere has plume gone ???? I don't think obscured by cloud but can't see it

[Buckster]

Still can't see hardly any rift activity now ? Has something gone on under Glacier and pressure been relieved ?

Something substantial has changed IMO

[Rustynailer]

On Mila cams whrere has plume gone ???? I don't think obscured by cloud but can't see it

It (the gas plume) has blown in a different direction and is now obscuring a direct view of the erupting fissure.

 

Interesting a few small Quakes near Askja.

2014-09-10 03:53:01 -16.531 65.002 0.8 8.1 auto 2014-09-10 03:40:15 -16.456 65.07 0.3 4.6 auto 2014-09-10 01:12:17 -16.462 65.02 0.2 5.3 auto 2014-09-10 00:49:58 -16.46 65.021 0.9 5.1 auto 2014-09-10 00:49:58 -16.452 65.026 0.6 5.7 auto

 They show on the drum...

 

 

Looks like some ash in the plume again, noted dropping from the gas cloud in sheets just.

Edited September 10, 2014 by Rustynailer

[Buckster]

Are you sure ? Just an hour ago the plume was very dark now even though view does not seem obscured I can't see any real trace

[Rustynailer]

Are you sure ? Just an hour ago the plume was very dark now even though view does not seem obscured I can't see any real trace

Yes it is still there, this fast moving low cloud is getting mixed with the gas plume and obscuring it a bit.    

Edited September 10, 2014 by Rustynailer

[swebby]

Hi rusty, The small events around 10am look to my untrained eye to have an unusual profile so maybe not EQ's?  Rockfall or someone working near by maybe?

 

Impressive fog bank over the glacier this morning but unfortunately I think we are stuck with this wind direction for the rest of the day so the mila cams may not have the greatest view.

[Rustynailer]

Hi rusty, The small events around 10am look to my untrained eye to have an unusual profile so maybe not EQ's?  Rockfall or someone working near by maybe?

 

Impressive fog bank over the glacier this morning but unfortunately I think we are stuck with this wind direction for the rest of the day so the mila cams may not have the greatest view.

My first impression was rockfall too, we will see.

 

 

2 plumes at the fissure site one has ash I think.  

[swebby]

Are you sure ? Just an hour ago the plume was very dark now even though view does not seem obscured I can't see any real trace

 

Hi buckster, I have to admit my first thought was something dramatic may have happened when I looked back at the cam and saw that the earlier clear viewing had been replaced with a lot of dark cloud or smoke.  I think one thing that suggests that all is quiet just at the mo is the presence of white van man at the radar station.  If there was a big event I think he would be beating a hasty retreat, especially as I think the highland the cams are located on (mt  vadalda) would quickly become an island in the event of glacial flooding.

Edited September 10, 2014 by swebby

[Rustynailer]

There may have been a fissure break out near the glacier or reactivation of an older one that all but closed off some days ago.

 

Unmistakable in this picture.  

 

Errm it could be the glacier, fissure trpe activity looking at the view now that cloud in the background is rising fast.

Edited September 10, 2014 by Rustynailer

[swebby]

Very difficult to tell at the mo what is weather and what is plume.  I agree it does look to me as if there may be stuff coming up from a different spot but I'm wondering if that's just a change of perspective due to the wind moving the plume about?  Would be nice if mila were still doing the panning of the across the valley but at the end of the day I'm just thankful the 2 cams are in place in the first place and available for us to view.

 

Also - looking very blowy there today.

[Rustynailer]

Still can't see hardly any rift activity now ? Has something gone on under Glacier and pressure been relieved ?

Something substantial has changed IMO

I think you are right about the change. There is something going on behind that darkness  

 

Big cloud at back.   

Edited September 10, 2014 by Rustynailer

[Filski]

Yeah, been watching it for a few minutes, something is going on.